When holding the Emerging Markets Stocks Portfolio, how long should you stay invested to have high probability to achieve a positive return?
Over the selected period (~49 years), the longest duration with a negative return was 195 months (from November 2007 to January 2024).
This indicates that, within the same timeframe, any rolling period of 196 months or more has consistently resulted in a positive return.
Understanding this metric is crucial as it highlights the importance of a safe investment horizon. Knowing the minimum duration required to likely see positive returns helps investors set realistic expectations and reinforces the strategy of staying invested through market cycles. This approach can mitigate the emotional reactions to short-term market fluctuations and enhance the likelihood of achieving financial goals.
Emerging Markets Stocks Portfolio: ETF allocation and returns
Previous vs subsequent Returns
Is there a correlation between past and future returns over all 10-year rolling periods?
The following chart illustrates the relationship between past returns (x-axis) and subsequent returns (y-axis).
Data points are aggregated to show occurrences, and you can zoom in by clicking or drawing over the desired area.
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As of Sep 30, 2024, the annualized return of the previous 10 years has been 3.22%.
Rolling Returns
A rolling return is a measure of investment performance that calculates the return of an investment over a set period of time, with the starting date rolling forward. This approach can provide a more accurate representation of the investment's historical performance and helps investors to evaluate the investment's consistency over time.
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Rolling Period Analysis
By selecting the 'Rolling Period', the chart and data will update. To study a different date range, change the simulation settings.
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Worst | Median | Best | Negative Periods |
---|---|---|---|
-54.34%
Dec 2007 - Nov 2008 |
+10.41% |
+111.70%
Jan 1991 - Dec 1991 |
34.67%
199 out of 574 |
-54.96%
Nov 2007 - Oct 2008 |
+5.22% |
+105.57%
Jan 1991 - Dec 1991 |
40.59%
233 out of 574 |
-29.06%
Aug 1980 - Jul 1982 |
+7.70% |
+64.67%
Jan 1988 - Dec 1989 |
37.01%
208 out of 562 |
-34.70%
Aug 1980 - Jul 1982 |
+2.84% |
+57.54%
Jan 1988 - Dec 1989 |
43.59%
245 out of 562 |
-18.57%
Oct 1979 - Sep 1982 |
+5.04% |
+60.25%
Jan 1989 - Dec 1991 |
32.55%
179 out of 550 |
-25.91%
Aug 1979 - Jul 1982 |
+1.66% |
+53.18%
Jan 1989 - Dec 1991 |
41.64%
229 out of 550 |
-15.90%
Sep 1994 - Aug 1998 |
+4.63% |
+54.04%
Jan 1988 - Dec 1991 |
25.09%
135 out of 538 |
-19.91%
Aug 1978 - Jul 1982 |
+1.25% |
+47.31%
Jan 1988 - Dec 1991 |
41.45%
223 out of 538 |
-10.37%
Feb 1994 - Jan 1999 |
+5.10% |
+49.02%
Jan 1989 - Dec 1993 |
25.67%
135 out of 526 |
-14.70%
Aug 1977 - Jul 1982 |
+2.42% |
+43.40%
Jan 1989 - Dec 1993 |
40.11%
211 out of 526 |
-7.23%
Mar 1997 - Feb 2003 |
+4.53% |
+46.91%
Jan 1988 - Dec 1993 |
25.88%
133 out of 514 |
-13.01%
Aug 1976 - Jul 1982 |
+2.43% |
+41.26%
Jan 1988 - Dec 1993 |
39.30%
202 out of 514 |
-8.52%
Dec 1980 - Nov 1987 |
+4.84% |
+36.13%
Nov 1987 - Oct 1994 |
15.74%
79 out of 502 |
-12.34%
Dec 1980 - Nov 1987 |
+2.61% |
+31.13%
Nov 1987 - Oct 1994 |
35.46%
178 out of 502 |
-6.39%
Jan 1980 - Dec 1987 |
+5.81% |
+29.83%
Jan 1988 - Dec 1995 |
14.08%
69 out of 490 |
-11.04%
Jan 1980 - Dec 1987 |
+3.40% |
+25.27%
Jan 1988 - Dec 1995 |
30.82%
151 out of 490 |
-5.04%
Feb 1994 - Jan 2003 |
+6.13% |
+28.19%
Jan 1988 - Dec 1996 |
10.46%
50 out of 478 |
-9.35%
Jan 1979 - Dec 1987 |
+3.38% |
+23.72%
Jan 1988 - Dec 1996 |
30.13%
144 out of 478 |
-2.16%
Jan 1978 - Dec 1987 |
+7.70% |
+25.17%
Feb 1984 - Jan 1994 |
3.00%
14 out of 466 |
-8.02%
Jan 1978 - Dec 1987 |
+4.98% |
+20.75%
Feb 1984 - Jan 1994 |
26.39%
123 out of 466 |
-1.38%
Jan 1977 - Dec 1987 |
+8.27% |
+23.86%
Feb 1983 - Jan 1994 |
1.32%
6 out of 454 |
-7.31%
Jan 1977 - Dec 1987 |
+5.62% |
+19.42%
Feb 1983 - Jan 1994 |
20.04%
91 out of 454 |
-0.72%
Jan 1976 - Dec 1987 |
+8.54% |
+21.44%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1994 |
1.81%
8 out of 442 |
-6.60%
Jan 1976 - Dec 1987 |
+5.54% |
+17.67%
Jan 1988 - Dec 1999 |
15.16%
67 out of 442 |
+0.31%
Nov 2010 - Oct 2023 |
+9.15% |
+18.98%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1995 |
0.00%
0 out of 430 |
-4.13%
Jan 1976 - Dec 1988 |
+6.25% |
+14.95%
Aug 1984 - Jul 1997 |
10.70%
46 out of 430 |
+0.84%
Jun 2008 - May 2022 |
+9.71% |
+17.89%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1996 |
0.00%
0 out of 418 |
-1.70%
Oct 1976 - Sep 1990 |
+6.61% |
+13.95%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1996 |
6.94%
29 out of 418 |
-1.21%
Nov 2007 - Oct 2022 |
+9.78% |
+18.23%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1997 |
0.49%
2 out of 406 |
-3.51%
Nov 2007 - Oct 2022 |
+6.37% |
+14.37%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1997 |
4.68%
19 out of 406 |
-0.55%
Nov 2007 - Oct 2023 |
+9.87% |
+15.87%
Jan 1988 - Dec 2003 |
0.25%
1 out of 394 |
-2.92%
Nov 2007 - Oct 2023 |
+6.19% |
+12.50%
Jan 1988 - Dec 2003 |
5.08%
20 out of 394 |
+1.61%
Oct 2007 - Sep 2024 |
+9.23% |
+16.89%
Oct 1990 - Sep 2007 |
0.00%
0 out of 382 |
-0.82%
Oct 2007 - Sep 2024 |
+5.96% |
+13.81%
Oct 1990 - Sep 2007 |
2.88%
11 out of 382 |
+2.79%
Feb 2006 - Jan 2024 |
+9.41% |
+17.25%
May 1988 - Apr 2006 |
0.00%
0 out of 370 |
+0.30%
Feb 2006 - Jan 2024 |
+5.98% |
+13.80%
May 1988 - Apr 2006 |
0.00%
0 out of 370 |
+4.09%
Mar 1997 - Feb 2016 |
+9.47% |
+18.56%
Nov 1988 - Oct 2007 |
0.00%
0 out of 358 |
+1.43%
Sep 1979 - Aug 1998 |
+5.94% |
+15.14%
Nov 1988 - Oct 2007 |
0.00%
0 out of 358 |
+4.57%
Feb 1994 - Jan 2014 |
+8.76% |
+18.64%
Jan 1988 - Dec 2007 |
0.00%
0 out of 346 |
+1.51%
Sep 1978 - Aug 1998 |
+5.51% |
+15.11%
Jan 1988 - Dec 2007 |
0.00%
0 out of 346 |
Emerging Markets Stocks Portfolio: ETF allocation and returns