Rebalancing: at every Jan 1st
Currency: EUR
When holding the Tyler Golden Butterfly To EUR Portfolio, how long should you stay invested to have high probability to achieve a positive return?
Over the selected period (~71 years), the longest duration with a negative return was 86 months (from June 2001 to July 2008).
This indicates that, within the same timeframe, any rolling period of 87 months or more has consistently resulted in a positive return.
Understanding this metric is crucial as it highlights the importance of a safe investment horizon. Knowing the minimum duration required to likely see positive returns helps investors set realistic expectations and reinforces the strategy of staying invested through market cycles. This approach can mitigate the emotional reactions to short-term market fluctuations and enhance the likelihood of achieving financial goals.
Tyler Golden Butterfly To EUR Portfolio: ETF allocation and returns
Previous vs subsequent Returns
Is there a correlation between past and future returns over all 10-year rolling periods?
The following chart illustrates the relationship between past returns (x-axis) and subsequent returns (y-axis).
Data points are aggregated to show occurrences, and you can zoom in by clicking or drawing over the desired area.
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As of Aug 31, 2024, the annualized return of the previous 10 years has been 8.09%.
Rolling Returns
A rolling return is a measure of investment performance that calculates the return of an investment over a set period of time, with the starting date rolling forward. This approach can provide a more accurate representation of the investment's historical performance and helps investors to evaluate the investment's consistency over time.
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Rolling Period Analysis
By selecting the 'Rolling Period', the chart and data will update. To study a different date range, change the simulation settings.
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Worst | Median | Best | Negative Periods |
---|---|---|---|
-23.28%
Nov 1989 - Oct 1990 |
+9.34% |
+66.98%
Jun 1982 - May 1983 |
20.55%
173 out of 842 |
-26.60%
Nov 1989 - Oct 1990 |
+6.44% |
+61.53%
Jun 1982 - May 1983 |
26.84%
226 out of 842 |
-10.22%
Jun 2001 - May 2003 |
+9.27% |
+39.81%
Feb 1982 - Jan 1984 |
10.48%
87 out of 830 |
-11.92%
Jun 2001 - May 2003 |
+6.38% |
+35.27%
Feb 1982 - Jan 1984 |
20.48%
170 out of 830 |
-5.65%
Jan 1985 - Dec 1987 |
+8.62% |
+34.76%
Mar 1982 - Feb 1985 |
6.48%
53 out of 818 |
-6.91%
Sep 1989 - Aug 1992 |
+6.08% |
+30.74%
Mar 1982 - Feb 1985 |
13.45%
110 out of 818 |
-2.97%
Nov 1986 - Oct 1990 |
+8.80% |
+33.45%
Dec 1978 - Nov 1982 |
1.99%
16 out of 806 |
-5.31%
Nov 1986 - Oct 1990 |
+5.91% |
+26.42%
Dec 1978 - Nov 1982 |
9.18%
74 out of 806 |
-1.15%
Nov 1985 - Oct 1990 |
+8.33% |
+32.85%
Dec 1978 - Nov 1983 |
0.76%
6 out of 794 |
-2.95%
Oct 1968 - Sep 1973 |
+5.83% |
+26.54%
Dec 1978 - Nov 1983 |
6.55%
52 out of 794 |
-1.10%
Feb 1985 - Jan 1991 |
+8.31% |
+30.18%
Dec 1978 - Nov 1984 |
0.90%
7 out of 782 |
-2.97%
Apr 2002 - Mar 2008 |
+5.91% |
+24.59%
Dec 1978 - Nov 1984 |
4.86%
38 out of 782 |
-0.44%
Jul 2001 - Jun 2008 |
+8.28% |
+27.33%
Mar 1978 - Feb 1985 |
0.26%
2 out of 770 |
-2.74%
Jul 2001 - Jun 2008 |
+5.61% |
+22.23%
Mar 1978 - Feb 1985 |
3.51%
27 out of 770 |
+0.33%
Jul 2001 - Jun 2009 |
+8.24% |
+23.27%
Mar 1977 - Feb 1985 |
0.00%
0 out of 758 |
-1.68%
Jul 2001 - Jun 2009 |
+5.82% |
+18.51%
Mar 1977 - Feb 1985 |
2.64%
20 out of 758 |
+1.07%
Nov 2000 - Oct 2009 |
+8.34% |
+23.04%
Oct 1974 - Sep 1983 |
0.00%
0 out of 746 |
-0.97%
Nov 2000 - Oct 2009 |
+6.05% |
+17.78%
Oct 1975 - Sep 1984 |
0.67%
5 out of 746 |
+3.16%
Jul 2001 - Jun 2011 |
+8.54% |
+22.67%
Feb 1975 - Jan 1985 |
0.00%
0 out of 734 |
+1.08%
Oct 1964 - Sep 1974 |
+6.11% |
+17.80%
Feb 1975 - Jan 1985 |
0.00%
0 out of 734 |
+3.76%
Apr 1998 - Mar 2009 |
+8.62% |
+21.17%
Jul 1974 - Jun 1985 |
0.00%
0 out of 722 |
+1.70%
Oct 1963 - Sep 1974 |
+6.37% |
+16.35%
Jul 1974 - Jun 1985 |
0.00%
0 out of 722 |
+4.40%
Aug 1997 - Jul 2009 |
+8.61% |
+19.75%
Jul 1973 - Jun 1985 |
0.00%
0 out of 710 |
+1.91%
Nov 1961 - Oct 1973 |
+6.21% |
+14.91%
Oct 1974 - Sep 1986 |
0.00%
0 out of 710 |
+4.72%
Nov 2000 - Oct 2013 |
+8.48% |
+18.68%
Mar 1972 - Feb 1985 |
0.00%
0 out of 698 |
+1.66%
Jan 1962 - Dec 1974 |
+6.07% |
+13.95%
Oct 1974 - Sep 1987 |
0.00%
0 out of 698 |
+5.34%
May 2000 - Apr 2014 |
+8.64% |
+17.57%
Mar 1971 - Feb 1985 |
0.00%
0 out of 686 |
+2.02%
Jan 1961 - Dec 1974 |
+6.38% |
+12.81%
Oct 1974 - Sep 1988 |
0.00%
0 out of 686 |
+5.66%
Oct 1959 - Sep 1974 |
+8.68% |
+17.77%
Jul 1970 - Jun 1985 |
0.00%
0 out of 674 |
+2.14%
Jan 1960 - Dec 1974 |
+6.38% |
+12.78%
Sep 1974 - Aug 1989 |
0.00%
0 out of 674 |
+5.53%
Apr 2002 - Mar 2018 |
+8.50% |
+16.54%
Jun 1970 - May 1986 |
0.00%
0 out of 662 |
+2.27%
Jan 1959 - Dec 1974 |
+6.26% |
+12.00%
Sep 1973 - Aug 1989 |
0.00%
0 out of 662 |
+5.80%
Jul 2001 - Jun 2018 |
+8.49% |
+15.30%
Mar 1968 - Feb 1985 |
0.00%
0 out of 650 |
+3.00%
Dec 1961 - Nov 1978 |
+6.12% |
+10.75%
Oct 1974 - Sep 1991 |
0.00%
0 out of 650 |
+5.66%
Nov 2000 - Oct 2018 |
+8.50% |
+15.13%
Mar 1967 - Feb 1985 |
0.00%
0 out of 638 |
+3.28%
Oct 1956 - Sep 1974 |
+6.24% |
+10.69%
Apr 1980 - Mar 1998 |
0.00%
0 out of 638 |
+6.15%
Nov 2000 - Oct 2019 |
+8.54% |
+14.81%
Jan 1975 - Dec 1993 |
0.00%
0 out of 626 |
+3.13%
Oct 1955 - Sep 1974 |
+6.18% |
+11.12%
Jan 1975 - Dec 1993 |
0.00%
0 out of 626 |
+6.06%
Nov 2000 - Oct 2020 |
+8.76% |
+14.44%
Aug 1973 - Jul 1993 |
0.00%
0 out of 614 |
+3.38%
Jan 1955 - Dec 1974 |
+6.21% |
+10.79%
Mar 1978 - Feb 1998 |
0.00%
0 out of 614 |
Tyler Golden Butterfly To EUR Portfolio: ETF allocation and returns