Larry Swedroe Larry Portfolio: Rolling Returns

Time Period: from January 1976 to September 2024 (~49 years)
Rebalancing: at every Jan 1st
Currency: USD
(Change Settings)
The minimum date range must be at least 24 months. 'Date To' cannot be beyond September 2024.
Reset settings
Close

When holding the Larry Swedroe Larry Portfolio, how long should you stay invested to have high probability to achieve a positive return?

Over the selected period (~49 years), the longest duration with a negative return was 52 months (from July 2019 to October 2023).

This indicates that, within the same timeframe, any rolling period of 53 months or more has consistently resulted in a positive return.

Understanding this metric is crucial as it highlights the importance of a safe investment horizon. Knowing the minimum duration required to likely see positive returns helps investors set realistic expectations and reinforces the strategy of staying invested through market cycles. This approach can mitigate the emotional reactions to short-term market fluctuations and enhance the likelihood of achieving financial goals.

Previous vs subsequent Returns

Is there a correlation between past and future returns over all 10-year rolling periods?

The following chart illustrates the relationship between past returns (x-axis) and subsequent returns (y-axis).

Data points are aggregated to show occurrences, and you can zoom in by clicking or drawing over the desired area.

LARRY SWEDROE LARRY PORTFOLIO
Previous vs Next Returns - 10 Years annualized
Time Period: 1 October 1994 - 30 September 2024 (30 Years)
Time Period: 1 January 1976 - 30 September 2024 (~49 years)

Loading data
Please wait

Loading data
Please wait

As of Sep 30, 2024, the annualized return of the previous 10 years has been 3.24%.

Rolling Returns

A rolling return is a measure of investment performance that calculates the return of an investment over a set period of time, with the starting date rolling forward. This approach can provide a more accurate representation of the investment's historical performance and helps investors to evaluate the investment's consistency over time.

LARRY SWEDROE LARRY PORTFOLIO
Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Returns - Inflation Adjusted
Time Period: 1 October 1994 - 30 September 2024 (30 Years)
Time Period: 1 January 1976 - 30 September 2024 (~49 years)
US Inflation Adjusted:

Loading data
Please wait

Loading data
Please wait

Loading data
Please wait

Loading data
Please wait

Loading data
Please wait

Loading data
Please wait

Loading data
Please wait

Loading data
Please wait

Loading data
Please wait

Loading data
Please wait

Loading data
Please wait

Loading data
Please wait

Rolling Period Analysis

By selecting the 'Rolling Period', the chart and data will update. To study a different date range, change the simulation settings.

LARRY SWEDROE LARRY PORTFOLIO
Rolling Returns Chart
Rolling Returns Chart - Inflation Adjusted
Time Period: 1 January 1976 - 30 September 2024 (~49 years)
US Inflation Adjusted:

Loading data
Please wait

Loading data
Please wait
Swipe left to see all data
Worst Median Best Negative Periods
-14.49%
Oct 2021 - Sep 2022
+7.97% +39.36%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1983
8.71%
50 out of 574
-20.97%
Oct 2021 - Sep 2022
+4.22% +36.00%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1983
22.13%
127 out of 574
-6.73%
Nov 2021 - Oct 2023
+8.14% +29.59%
Jul 1984 - Jun 1986
3.91%
22 out of 562
-11.57%
Nov 2021 - Oct 2023
+4.69% +26.17%
Jul 1984 - Jun 1986
13.35%
75 out of 562
-2.65%
May 2021 - Apr 2024
+8.27% +22.54%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1985
2.91%
16 out of 550
-7.72%
May 2021 - Apr 2024
+4.71% +18.41%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1985
12.36%
68 out of 550
-0.62%
Nov 2019 - Oct 2023
+8.19% +23.68%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1986
0.19%
1 out of 538
-4.97%
Nov 2019 - Oct 2023
+4.66% +20.02%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1986
11.15%
60 out of 538
+0.32%
Oct 2017 - Sep 2022
+8.38% +21.25%
Sep 1981 - Aug 1986
0.00%
0 out of 526
-3.31%
Oct 2017 - Sep 2022
+5.01% +17.13%
Sep 1981 - Aug 1986
9.70%
51 out of 526
+0.52%
Nov 2017 - Oct 2023
+8.43% +18.95%
Apr 1980 - Mar 1986
0.00%
0 out of 514
-3.11%
Nov 2017 - Oct 2023
+5.16% +14.49%
Sep 1981 - Aug 1987
7.39%
38 out of 514
+1.53%
Nov 2016 - Oct 2023
+8.60% +17.95%
Apr 1980 - Mar 1987
0.00%
0 out of 502
-1.91%
Nov 2016 - Oct 2023
+5.47% +13.27%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1989
5.98%
30 out of 502
+1.91%
Nov 2015 - Oct 2023
+8.50% +16.94%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1989
0.00%
0 out of 490
-1.32%
Nov 2015 - Oct 2023
+5.64% +12.74%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1989
5.51%
27 out of 490
+1.76%
Nov 2014 - Oct 2023
+8.60% +15.69%
Jul 1984 - Jun 1993
0.00%
0 out of 478
-1.12%
Nov 2014 - Oct 2023
+5.82% +11.52%
Jul 1984 - Jun 1993
4.60%
22 out of 478
+1.87%
Nov 2013 - Oct 2023
+8.57% +15.98%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1992
0.00%
0 out of 466
-0.89%
Nov 2013 - Oct 2023
+5.88% +11.82%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1992
2.79%
13 out of 466
+2.45%
Nov 2012 - Oct 2023
+8.67% +16.12%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1993
0.00%
0 out of 454
-0.24%
May 2013 - Apr 2024
+5.92% +12.00%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1993
0.66%
3 out of 454
+2.68%
Nov 2011 - Oct 2023
+8.62% +16.02%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1993
0.00%
0 out of 442
+0.10%
Nov 2011 - Oct 2023
+5.81% +11.82%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1993
0.00%
0 out of 442
+2.72%
Nov 2010 - Oct 2023
+8.82% +15.20%
Apr 1980 - Mar 1993
0.00%
0 out of 430
+0.08%
Nov 2010 - Oct 2023
+5.82% +10.80%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1995
0.00%
0 out of 430
+3.36%
May 2010 - Apr 2024
+8.62% +14.64%
Mar 1980 - Feb 1994
0.00%
0 out of 418
+0.70%
May 2010 - Apr 2024
+5.73% +10.57%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1995
0.00%
0 out of 418
+3.48%
Nov 2007 - Oct 2022
+8.96% +14.12%
Nov 1978 - Oct 1993
0.00%
0 out of 406
+1.07%
Nov 2007 - Oct 2022
+5.91% +10.26%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1997
0.00%
0 out of 406
+3.27%
Nov 2007 - Oct 2023
+8.85% +13.92%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1997
0.00%
0 out of 394
+0.82%
Nov 2007 - Oct 2023
+5.95% +10.08%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1997
0.00%
0 out of 394
+3.76%
Nov 2006 - Oct 2023
+8.45% +13.39%
Feb 1977 - Jan 1994
0.00%
0 out of 382
+1.22%
Nov 2006 - Oct 2023
+5.83% +9.56%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1998
0.00%
0 out of 382
+4.09%
May 2006 - Apr 2024
+8.77% +13.41%
Jan 1976 - Dec 1993
0.00%
0 out of 370
+1.55%
May 2006 - Apr 2024
+6.05% +9.13%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1999
0.00%
0 out of 370
+4.29%
Nov 2004 - Oct 2023
+8.91% +12.63%
Apr 1980 - Mar 1999
0.00%
0 out of 358
+1.70%
Nov 2004 - Oct 2023
+6.14% +8.91%
Jul 1982 - Jun 2001
0.00%
0 out of 358
+4.56%
Nov 2003 - Oct 2023
+9.06% +12.70%
Jan 1976 - Dec 1995
0.00%
0 out of 346
+1.93%
Nov 2003 - Oct 2023
+6.19% +8.84%
Jul 1982 - Jun 2002
0.00%
0 out of 346
The first official book of
Build wealth
with Lazy Portfolios and Passive Investing