When holding the Davide Pisicchio Margherita Portfolio, how long should you stay invested to have high probability to achieve a positive return?
Over the selected period (~40 years), the longest duration with a negative return was 35 months (from December 2020 to October 2023).
This indicates that, within the same timeframe, any rolling period of 36 months or more has consistently resulted in a positive return.
Understanding this metric is crucial as it highlights the importance of a safe investment horizon. Knowing the minimum duration required to likely see positive returns helps investors set realistic expectations and reinforces the strategy of staying invested through market cycles. This approach can mitigate the emotional reactions to short-term market fluctuations and enhance the likelihood of achieving financial goals.
Davide Pisicchio Margherita Portfolio: ETF allocation and returns
Previous vs subsequent Returns
Is there a correlation between past and future returns over all 10-year rolling periods?
The following chart illustrates the relationship between past returns (x-axis) and subsequent returns (y-axis).
Data points are aggregated to show occurrences, and you can zoom in by clicking or drawing over the desired area.
Loading data
Please wait
Loading data
Please wait
As of Jan 31, 2025, the annualized return of the previous 10 years has been 6.02%.
Rolling Returns
A rolling return is a measure of investment performance that calculates the return of an investment over a set period of time, with the starting date rolling forward. This approach can provide a more accurate representation of the investment's historical performance and helps investors to evaluate the investment's consistency over time.
Loading data
Please wait
Loading data
Please wait
Loading data
Please wait
Loading data
Please wait
Loading data
Please wait
Loading data
Please wait
Loading data
Please wait
Loading data
Please wait
Loading data
Please wait
Loading data
Please wait
Loading data
Please wait
Loading data
Please wait
Rolling Period Analysis
By selecting the 'Rolling Period', the chart and data will update. To study a different date range, change the simulation settings.
Loading data
Please wait
Loading data
Please wait
Worst | Median | Best | Negative Periods |
---|---|---|---|
-13.59%
Nov 2021 - Oct 2022 |
+7.96% |
+26.63%
Sep 1985 - Aug 1986 |
9.05%
42 out of 464 |
-19.87%
Oct 2021 - Sep 2022 |
+5.09% |
+24.66%
Sep 1985 - Aug 1986 |
18.10%
84 out of 464 |
-4.61%
Nov 2021 - Oct 2023 |
+7.54% |
+18.29%
Aug 1985 - Jul 1987 |
5.09%
23 out of 452 |
-9.65%
Jan 2021 - Dec 2022 |
+4.71% |
+15.34%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2011 |
10.18%
46 out of 452 |
+0.82%
Oct 2020 - Sep 2023 |
+7.57% |
+14.73%
Nov 1990 - Oct 1993 |
0.00%
0 out of 440 |
-4.65%
Oct 2020 - Sep 2023 |
+4.76% |
+11.78%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2012 |
7.73%
34 out of 440 |
+2.66%
Mar 2005 - Feb 2009 |
+7.42% |
+13.90%
Feb 1995 - Jan 1999 |
0.00%
0 out of 428 |
-1.23%
Nov 2019 - Oct 2023 |
+4.76% |
+11.36%
Feb 1995 - Jan 1999 |
3.04%
13 out of 428 |
+3.04%
Mar 2004 - Feb 2009 |
+7.41% |
+12.43%
Jan 1995 - Dec 1999 |
0.00%
0 out of 416 |
+0.09%
Oct 2017 - Sep 2022 |
+4.73% |
+9.82%
Jan 1995 - Dec 1999 |
0.00%
0 out of 416 |
+4.11%
Oct 2016 - Sep 2022 |
+7.20% |
+11.49%
Nov 1990 - Oct 1996 |
0.00%
0 out of 404 |
+0.55%
Nov 2017 - Oct 2023 |
+4.75% |
+8.51%
May 1992 - Apr 1998 |
0.00%
0 out of 404 |
+4.67%
Oct 2016 - Sep 2023 |
+7.13% |
+11.84%
Oct 1990 - Sep 1997 |
0.00%
0 out of 392 |
+1.11%
Oct 2016 - Sep 2023 |
+4.82% |
+8.75%
Oct 1990 - Sep 1997 |
0.00%
0 out of 392 |
+4.27%
Oct 2014 - Sep 2022 |
+7.25% |
+11.57%
Oct 1985 - Sep 1993 |
0.00%
0 out of 380 |
+1.28%
Mar 2015 - Feb 2023 |
+4.87% |
+8.65%
Nov 1990 - Oct 1998 |
0.00%
0 out of 380 |
+4.42%
Mar 2000 - Feb 2009 |
+7.25% |
+11.19%
Apr 1989 - Mar 1998 |
0.00%
0 out of 368 |
+1.52%
Nov 2014 - Oct 2023 |
+4.92% |
+8.20%
Nov 1990 - Oct 1999 |
0.00%
0 out of 368 |
+4.44%
Oct 2012 - Sep 2022 |
+7.31% |
+10.93%
Jan 1989 - Dec 1998 |
0.00%
0 out of 356 |
+1.77%
Nov 2013 - Oct 2023 |
+4.95% |
+7.79%
Nov 1990 - Oct 2000 |
0.00%
0 out of 356 |
+4.77%
Oct 2012 - Sep 2023 |
+7.50% |
+10.67%
Dec 1987 - Nov 1998 |
0.00%
0 out of 344 |
+2.09%
Oct 2012 - Sep 2023 |
+5.05% |
+7.29%
Apr 1989 - Mar 2000 |
0.00%
0 out of 344 |
+4.96%
Nov 2011 - Oct 2023 |
+7.30% |
+11.08%
Oct 1985 - Sep 1997 |
0.00%
0 out of 332 |
+2.33%
Nov 2011 - Oct 2023 |
+4.86% |
+7.44%
Oct 1985 - Sep 1997 |
0.00%
0 out of 332 |
+5.16%
Nov 2010 - Oct 2023 |
+7.09% |
+10.82%
Jul 1985 - Jun 1998 |
0.00%
0 out of 320 |
+2.45%
Nov 2010 - Oct 2023 |
+4.85% |
+7.34%
Jul 1985 - Jun 1998 |
0.00%
0 out of 320 |
+5.81%
Oct 2008 - Sep 2022 |
+7.06% |
+10.50%
Jul 1985 - Jun 1999 |
0.00%
0 out of 308 |
+3.20%
May 2010 - Apr 2024 |
+4.74% |
+7.12%
Jul 1985 - Jun 1999 |
0.00%
0 out of 308 |
+5.24%
Oct 2007 - Sep 2022 |
+7.14% |
+10.48%
Sep 1985 - Aug 2000 |
0.00%
0 out of 296 |
+2.80%
Nov 2007 - Oct 2022 |
+4.83% |
+7.07%
Sep 1985 - Aug 2000 |
0.00%
0 out of 296 |
+5.25%
Nov 2007 - Oct 2023 |
+7.22% |
+9.83%
Aug 1985 - Jul 2001 |
0.00%
0 out of 284 |
+2.75%
Nov 2007 - Oct 2023 |
+4.78% |
+6.45%
Aug 1985 - Jul 2001 |
0.00%
0 out of 284 |
+5.60%
Nov 2006 - Oct 2023 |
+7.33% |
+9.25%
Jul 1985 - Jun 2002 |
0.00%
0 out of 272 |
+3.02%
Nov 2006 - Oct 2023 |
+4.89% |
+6.36%
Nov 1990 - Oct 2007 |
0.00%
0 out of 272 |
+5.81%
Jan 2005 - Dec 2022 |
+7.45% |
+9.43%
Oct 1985 - Sep 2003 |
0.00%
0 out of 260 |
+3.23%
Jan 2005 - Dec 2022 |
+5.00% |
+6.21%
Oct 1985 - Sep 2003 |
0.00%
0 out of 260 |
+5.84%
Nov 2004 - Oct 2023 |
+7.51% |
+9.37%
Oct 1985 - Sep 2004 |
0.00%
0 out of 248 |
+3.21%
Mar 2004 - Feb 2023 |
+5.00% |
+6.17%
Oct 1985 - Sep 2004 |
0.00%
0 out of 248 |
+5.94%
Nov 2003 - Oct 2023 |
+7.45% |
+9.27%
Oct 1985 - Sep 2005 |
0.00%
0 out of 236 |
+3.28%
Nov 2003 - Oct 2023 |
+4.89% |
+6.02%
Aug 1985 - Jul 2005 |
0.00%
0 out of 236 |
Davide Pisicchio Margherita Portfolio: ETF allocation and returns