When holding the Marvin Appel One-Decision Portfolio, how long should you stay invested to have high probability to achieve a positive return?
Over the selected period (~97 years), the longest duration with a negative return was 154 months (from September 1929 to June 1942).
This indicates that, within the same timeframe, any rolling period of 155 months or more has consistently resulted in a positive return.
Understanding this metric is crucial as it highlights the importance of a safe investment horizon. Knowing the minimum duration required to likely see positive returns helps investors set realistic expectations and reinforces the strategy of staying invested through market cycles. This approach can mitigate the emotional reactions to short-term market fluctuations and enhance the likelihood of achieving financial goals.
Marvin Appel One-Decision Portfolio: ETF allocation and returns
Previous vs subsequent Returns
Is there a correlation between past and future returns over all 10-year rolling periods?
The following chart illustrates the relationship between past returns (x-axis) and subsequent returns (y-axis).
Data points are aggregated to show occurrences, and you can zoom in by clicking or drawing over the desired area.
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As of Feb 28, 2025, the annualized return of the previous 10 years has been 5.69%.
Rolling Returns
A rolling return is a measure of investment performance that calculates the return of an investment over a set period of time, with the starting date rolling forward. This approach can provide a more accurate representation of the investment's historical performance and helps investors to evaluate the investment's consistency over time.
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Rolling Period Analysis
By selecting the 'Rolling Period', the chart and data will update. To study a different date range, change the simulation settings.
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Worst | Median | Best | Negative Periods |
---|---|---|---|
-34.89%
Jul 1931 - Jun 1932 |
+7.97% |
+60.03%
Jul 1932 - Jun 1933 |
18.35%
212 out of 1155 |
-27.71%
Jul 1931 - Jun 1932 |
+4.71% |
+71.38%
Jul 1932 - Jun 1933 |
27.88%
322 out of 1155 |
-24.62%
Jun 1930 - May 1932 |
+7.48% |
+25.43%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2011 |
9.97%
114 out of 1143 |
-18.29%
Mar 2007 - Feb 2009 |
+4.33% |
+24.85%
Jun 1932 - May 1934 |
21.61%
247 out of 1143 |
-17.20%
Jul 1929 - Jun 1932 |
+7.32% |
+22.71%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1985 |
8.13%
92 out of 1131 |
-10.63%
Jul 1929 - Jun 1932 |
+4.22% |
+18.57%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1985 |
17.95%
203 out of 1131 |
-9.68%
Jun 1928 - May 1932 |
+7.14% |
+22.65%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1986 |
6.08%
68 out of 1119 |
-6.78%
Jan 1971 - Dec 1974 |
+4.31% |
+19.02%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1986 |
15.28%
171 out of 1119 |
-5.17%
Apr 1928 - Mar 1933 |
+7.11% |
+20.24%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1987 |
3.97%
44 out of 1107 |
-5.11%
Oct 1969 - Sep 1974 |
+4.26% |
+16.58%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1987 |
11.47%
127 out of 1107 |
-2.47%
Sep 1929 - Aug 1935 |
+6.99% |
+19.12%
Apr 1980 - Mar 1986 |
2.01%
22 out of 1095 |
-5.49%
Dec 1968 - Nov 1974 |
+4.28% |
+14.09%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1987 |
8.31%
91 out of 1095 |
-0.37%
Apr 1928 - Mar 1935 |
+7.08% |
+18.16%
Apr 1980 - Mar 1987 |
0.09%
1 out of 1083 |
-4.14%
Oct 1967 - Sep 1974 |
+4.40% |
+12.67%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1989 |
8.59%
93 out of 1083 |
-0.85%
Apr 1930 - Mar 1938 |
+7.08% |
+16.92%
Mar 1979 - Feb 1987 |
0.28%
3 out of 1071 |
-2.55%
Jan 1967 - Dec 1974 |
+4.36% |
+11.54%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1989 |
7.19%
77 out of 1071 |
-0.20%
Apr 1929 - Mar 1938 |
+7.00% |
+16.35%
Mar 1978 - Feb 1987 |
0.09%
1 out of 1059 |
-2.63%
Jan 1966 - Dec 1974 |
+4.21% |
+10.16%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1991 |
6.99%
74 out of 1059 |
-0.03%
Sep 1929 - Aug 1939 |
+6.93% |
+15.47%
Jan 1975 - Dec 1984 |
0.10%
1 out of 1047 |
-1.86%
Jan 1965 - Dec 1974 |
+4.03% |
+10.11%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1992 |
4.97%
52 out of 1047 |
+0.17%
Sep 1929 - Aug 1940 |
+6.99% |
+15.95%
Jan 1975 - Dec 1985 |
0.00%
0 out of 1035 |
-1.13%
Jan 1964 - Dec 1974 |
+4.02% |
+10.11%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1993 |
3.38%
35 out of 1035 |
+0.25%
May 1930 - Apr 1942 |
+6.93% |
+15.93%
Sep 1974 - Aug 1986 |
0.00%
0 out of 1023 |
-0.60%
Mar 1937 - Feb 1949 |
+4.01% |
+9.84%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1993 |
1.66%
17 out of 1023 |
+0.08%
Sep 1929 - Aug 1942 |
+6.86% |
+15.65%
Oct 1974 - Sep 1987 |
0.00%
0 out of 1011 |
-0.61%
Jan 1962 - Dec 1974 |
+4.02% |
+9.11%
Apr 1980 - Mar 1993 |
0.99%
10 out of 1011 |
+1.37%
May 1928 - Apr 1942 |
+6.91% |
+14.61%
Oct 1974 - Sep 1988 |
0.00%
0 out of 999 |
-0.10%
Oct 1967 - Sep 1981 |
+4.15% |
+9.07%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1996 |
0.10%
1 out of 999 |
+1.95%
Sep 1929 - Aug 1944 |
+7.00% |
+14.71%
Oct 1974 - Sep 1989 |
0.00%
0 out of 987 |
+0.17%
Jan 1960 - Dec 1974 |
+4.17% |
+9.78%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1997 |
0.00%
0 out of 987 |
+2.64%
Sep 1929 - Aug 1945 |
+7.05% |
+13.54%
Oct 1975 - Sep 1991 |
0.00%
0 out of 975 |
+0.33%
Oct 1965 - Sep 1981 |
+4.21% |
+9.72%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1998 |
0.00%
0 out of 975 |
+2.99%
Oct 1929 - Sep 1946 |
+7.07% |
+14.00%
Jan 1975 - Dec 1991 |
0.00%
0 out of 963 |
+0.56%
Oct 1964 - Sep 1981 |
+4.20% |
+9.30%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1999 |
0.00%
0 out of 963 |
+3.11%
Sep 1929 - Aug 1947 |
+7.18% |
+13.76%
Jan 1975 - Dec 1992 |
0.00%
0 out of 951 |
+0.77%
Aug 1964 - Jul 1982 |
+4.18% |
+9.05%
Apr 1980 - Mar 1998 |
0.00%
0 out of 951 |
+3.22%
Sep 1929 - Aug 1948 |
+7.21% |
+13.82%
Oct 1974 - Sep 1993 |
0.00%
0 out of 939 |
+0.78%
Jan 1956 - Dec 1974 |
+4.13% |
+8.66%
Oct 1981 - Sep 2000 |
0.00%
0 out of 939 |
+3.03%
Sep 1929 - Aug 1949 |
+7.20% |
+13.00%
Mar 1978 - Feb 1998 |
0.00%
0 out of 927 |
+1.15%
Jan 1955 - Dec 1974 |
+4.09% |
+8.29%
Apr 1982 - Mar 2002 |
0.00%
0 out of 927 |
Marvin Appel One-Decision Portfolio: ETF allocation and returns