Merrill Lynch Edge Select Conservative Portfolio: Rolling Returns

Time Period: from January 1985 to September 2024 (~40 years)
Rebalancing: at every Jan 1st
Currency: USD
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When holding the Merrill Lynch Edge Select Conservative Portfolio, how long should you stay invested to have high probability to achieve a positive return?

Over the selected period (~40 years), the longest duration with a negative return was 39 months (from August 2020 to October 2023).

This indicates that, within the same timeframe, any rolling period of 40 months or more has consistently resulted in a positive return.

Understanding this metric is crucial as it highlights the importance of a safe investment horizon. Knowing the minimum duration required to likely see positive returns helps investors set realistic expectations and reinforces the strategy of staying invested through market cycles. This approach can mitigate the emotional reactions to short-term market fluctuations and enhance the likelihood of achieving financial goals.

Previous vs subsequent Returns

Is there a correlation between past and future returns over all 10-year rolling periods?

The following chart illustrates the relationship between past returns (x-axis) and subsequent returns (y-axis).

Data points are aggregated to show occurrences, and you can zoom in by clicking or drawing over the desired area.

MERRILL LYNCH EDGE SELECT CONSERVATIVE PORTFOLIO
Previous vs Next Returns - 10 Years annualized
Time Period: 1 October 1994 - 30 September 2024 (30 Years)
Time Period: 1 January 1985 - 30 September 2024 (~40 years)

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As of Sep 30, 2024, the annualized return of the previous 10 years has been 3.82%.

Rolling Returns

A rolling return is a measure of investment performance that calculates the return of an investment over a set period of time, with the starting date rolling forward. This approach can provide a more accurate representation of the investment's historical performance and helps investors to evaluate the investment's consistency over time.

MERRILL LYNCH EDGE SELECT CONSERVATIVE PORTFOLIO
Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Returns - Inflation Adjusted
Time Period: 1 October 1994 - 30 September 2024 (30 Years)
Time Period: 1 January 1985 - 30 September 2024 (~40 years)
US Inflation Adjusted:

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Rolling Period Analysis

By selecting the 'Rolling Period', the chart and data will update. To study a different date range, change the simulation settings.

MERRILL LYNCH EDGE SELECT CONSERVATIVE PORTFOLIO
Rolling Returns Chart
Rolling Returns Chart - Inflation Adjusted
Time Period: 1 January 1985 - 30 September 2024 (~40 years)
US Inflation Adjusted:

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Swipe left to see all data
Worst Median Best Negative Periods
-11.14%
Oct 2021 - Sep 2022
+6.35% +26.91%
Apr 1985 - Mar 1986
6.65%
31 out of 466
-17.87%
Oct 2021 - Sep 2022
+3.74% +24.34%
May 1985 - Apr 1986
17.17%
80 out of 466
-4.02%
Nov 2021 - Oct 2023
+6.09% +20.06%
Mar 1985 - Feb 1987
5.95%
27 out of 454
-9.44%
Jan 2021 - Dec 2022
+3.36% +17.07%
Mar 1985 - Feb 1987
9.69%
44 out of 454
-0.39%
Oct 2019 - Sep 2022
+5.90% +14.54%
Mar 1985 - Feb 1988
1.13%
5 out of 442
-5.74%
Nov 2020 - Oct 2023
+3.39% +11.19%
Mar 1985 - Feb 1988
8.60%
38 out of 442
+0.69%
Nov 2019 - Oct 2023
+5.57% +12.91%
Aug 1985 - Jul 1989
0.00%
0 out of 430
-3.71%
Nov 2019 - Oct 2023
+3.14% +9.04%
Jan 1985 - Dec 1988
8.14%
35 out of 430
+1.56%
Oct 2017 - Sep 2022
+5.49% +13.19%
Jan 1985 - Dec 1989
0.00%
0 out of 418
-2.12%
Oct 2017 - Sep 2022
+3.19% +9.19%
Jan 1985 - Dec 1989
7.66%
32 out of 418
+1.98%
Nov 2017 - Oct 2023
+5.50% +11.87%
Mar 1985 - Feb 1991
0.00%
0 out of 406
-1.70%
Nov 2017 - Oct 2023
+3.03% +7.53%
Mar 1985 - Feb 1991
6.40%
26 out of 406
+2.52%
Nov 2016 - Oct 2023
+5.55% +12.50%
Jan 1985 - Dec 1991
0.00%
0 out of 394
-0.94%
Nov 2016 - Oct 2023
+3.09% +8.24%
Jan 1985 - Dec 1991
5.08%
20 out of 394
+2.34%
Oct 2014 - Sep 2022
+5.64% +11.77%
Mar 1985 - Feb 1993
0.00%
0 out of 382
-0.62%
Mar 2015 - Feb 2023
+3.14% +7.72%
Apr 1985 - Mar 1993
4.19%
16 out of 382
+2.49%
Nov 2014 - Oct 2023
+5.55% +11.75%
Jan 1985 - Dec 1993
0.00%
0 out of 370
-0.42%
Nov 2014 - Oct 2023
+3.14% +7.76%
Jan 1985 - Dec 1993
1.89%
7 out of 370
+2.74%
Nov 2013 - Oct 2023
+5.43% +10.52%
Oct 1985 - Sep 1995
0.00%
0 out of 358
-0.04%
Nov 2013 - Oct 2023
+3.12% +6.74%
Oct 1985 - Sep 1995
0.28%
1 out of 358
+2.97%
Nov 2012 - Oct 2023
+5.43% +11.11%
Jan 1985 - Dec 1995
0.00%
0 out of 346
+0.35%
Nov 2012 - Oct 2023
+3.17% +7.36%
Jan 1985 - Dec 1995
0.00%
0 out of 346
+3.23%
Oct 2010 - Sep 2022
+5.43% +10.77%
Jan 1985 - Dec 1996
0.00%
0 out of 334
+0.64%
Oct 2010 - Sep 2022
+3.05% +7.04%
Jan 1985 - Dec 1996
0.00%
0 out of 334
+3.27%
Nov 2010 - Oct 2023
+5.43% +10.65%
Jan 1985 - Dec 1997
0.00%
0 out of 322
+0.61%
Nov 2010 - Oct 2023
+3.05% +7.12%
Apr 1985 - Mar 1998
0.00%
0 out of 322
+3.69%
Nov 2009 - Oct 2023
+5.54% +10.65%
Jan 1985 - Dec 1998
0.00%
0 out of 310
+1.12%
Nov 2009 - Oct 2023
+3.08% +7.20%
Jan 1985 - Dec 1998
0.00%
0 out of 310
+3.34%
Oct 2007 - Sep 2022
+5.59% +10.30%
Jan 1985 - Dec 1999
0.00%
0 out of 298
+0.95%
Oct 2007 - Sep 2022
+3.09% +6.90%
Jan 1985 - Dec 1999
0.00%
0 out of 298
+3.36%
Nov 2007 - Oct 2023
+5.80% +10.01%
Jan 1985 - Dec 2000
0.00%
0 out of 286
+0.90%
Nov 2007 - Oct 2023
+3.29% +6.60%
Jan 1985 - Dec 2000
0.00%
0 out of 286
+3.61%
Nov 2006 - Oct 2023
+5.86% +9.58%
Jan 1985 - Dec 2001
0.00%
0 out of 274
+1.07%
Nov 2006 - Oct 2023
+3.40% +6.29%
Jan 1985 - Dec 2001
0.00%
0 out of 274
+3.85%
Nov 2005 - Oct 2023
+5.91% +9.16%
Jan 1985 - Dec 2002
0.00%
0 out of 262
+1.36%
Oct 2004 - Sep 2022
+3.50% +5.91%
Jan 1985 - Dec 2002
0.00%
0 out of 262
+3.89%
Nov 2004 - Oct 2023
+6.09% +9.22%
Jan 1985 - Dec 2003
0.00%
0 out of 250
+1.31%
Nov 2004 - Oct 2023
+3.57% +6.02%
Jan 1985 - Dec 2003
0.00%
0 out of 250
+4.03%
Nov 2003 - Oct 2023
+6.06% +9.08%
Jan 1985 - Dec 2004
0.00%
0 out of 238
+1.42%
Nov 2003 - Oct 2023
+3.59% +5.87%
Jan 1985 - Dec 2004
0.00%
0 out of 238
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