Merrill Lynch Edge Select Moderate Portfolio: Rolling Returns

Time Period: from January 1985 to September 2024 (~40 years)
Rebalancing: at every Jan 1st
Currency: USD
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When holding the Merrill Lynch Edge Select Moderate Portfolio, how long should you stay invested to have high probability to achieve a positive return?

Over the selected period (~40 years), the longest duration with a negative return was 52 months (from November 2004 to February 2009).

This indicates that, within the same timeframe, any rolling period of 53 months or more has consistently resulted in a positive return.

Understanding this metric is crucial as it highlights the importance of a safe investment horizon. Knowing the minimum duration required to likely see positive returns helps investors set realistic expectations and reinforces the strategy of staying invested through market cycles. This approach can mitigate the emotional reactions to short-term market fluctuations and enhance the likelihood of achieving financial goals.

Previous vs subsequent Returns

Is there a correlation between past and future returns over all 10-year rolling periods?

The following chart illustrates the relationship between past returns (x-axis) and subsequent returns (y-axis).

Data points are aggregated to show occurrences, and you can zoom in by clicking or drawing over the desired area.

MERRILL LYNCH EDGE SELECT MODERATE PORTFOLIO
Previous vs Next Returns - 10 Years annualized
Time Period: 1 October 1994 - 30 September 2024 (30 Years)
Time Period: 1 January 1985 - 30 September 2024 (~40 years)

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As of Sep 30, 2024, the annualized return of the previous 10 years has been 6.86%.

Rolling Returns

A rolling return is a measure of investment performance that calculates the return of an investment over a set period of time, with the starting date rolling forward. This approach can provide a more accurate representation of the investment's historical performance and helps investors to evaluate the investment's consistency over time.

MERRILL LYNCH EDGE SELECT MODERATE PORTFOLIO
Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Returns - Inflation Adjusted
Time Period: 1 October 1994 - 30 September 2024 (30 Years)
Time Period: 1 January 1985 - 30 September 2024 (~40 years)
US Inflation Adjusted:

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Rolling Period Analysis

By selecting the 'Rolling Period', the chart and data will update. To study a different date range, change the simulation settings.

MERRILL LYNCH EDGE SELECT MODERATE PORTFOLIO
Rolling Returns Chart
Rolling Returns Chart - Inflation Adjusted
Time Period: 1 January 1985 - 30 September 2024 (~40 years)
US Inflation Adjusted:

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Swipe left to see all data
Worst Median Best Negative Periods
-25.06%
Mar 2008 - Feb 2009
+10.14% +37.72%
May 1985 - Apr 1986
16.52%
77 out of 466
-26.00%
Nov 2007 - Oct 2008
+7.54% +35.56%
May 1985 - Apr 1986
22.10%
103 out of 466
-11.86%
Mar 2007 - Feb 2009
+9.41% +28.32%
Apr 1985 - Mar 1987
11.89%
54 out of 454
-13.63%
Mar 2007 - Feb 2009
+6.43% +25.19%
Apr 1985 - Mar 1987
15.64%
71 out of 454
-5.06%
Mar 2006 - Feb 2009
+8.92% +18.77%
Mar 1985 - Feb 1988
4.98%
22 out of 442
-7.08%
Mar 2006 - Feb 2009
+6.30% +15.46%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2012
14.48%
64 out of 442
-1.78%
Mar 2005 - Feb 2009
+8.68% +18.30%
Oct 1985 - Sep 1989
0.70%
3 out of 430
-4.21%
Mar 2005 - Feb 2009
+5.94% +14.12%
Oct 1985 - Sep 1989
6.28%
27 out of 430
+0.08%
Mar 2004 - Feb 2009
+8.08% +18.35%
Jan 1985 - Dec 1989
0.00%
0 out of 418
-2.50%
Mar 2004 - Feb 2009
+5.86% +14.16%
Jan 1985 - Dec 1989
2.15%
9 out of 418
+4.04%
Nov 2017 - Oct 2023
+7.47% +15.43%
Oct 1985 - Sep 1991
0.00%
0 out of 406
+0.28%
Nov 2017 - Oct 2023
+5.25% +11.55%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2015
0.00%
0 out of 406
+2.57%
Mar 2002 - Feb 2009
+7.24% +16.68%
Jan 1985 - Dec 1991
0.00%
0 out of 394
-0.01%
Mar 2002 - Feb 2009
+5.30% +12.26%
Jan 1985 - Dec 1991
0.25%
1 out of 394
+2.02%
Mar 2001 - Feb 2009
+7.53% +15.15%
Jan 1985 - Dec 1992
0.00%
0 out of 382
-0.37%
Mar 2001 - Feb 2009
+5.19% +10.92%
Jan 1991 - Dec 1998
0.79%
3 out of 382
+1.66%
Mar 2000 - Feb 2009
+7.56% +15.38%
Jan 1985 - Dec 1993
0.00%
0 out of 370
-0.84%
Mar 2000 - Feb 2009
+5.22% +11.26%
Jan 1985 - Dec 1993
0.81%
3 out of 370
+2.74%
Mar 1999 - Feb 2009
+7.82% +13.92%
Oct 1985 - Sep 1995
0.00%
0 out of 358
+0.14%
Mar 1999 - Feb 2009
+5.35% +10.25%
Oct 1990 - Sep 2000
0.00%
0 out of 358
+3.23%
Mar 1998 - Feb 2009
+8.11% +14.46%
Jan 1985 - Dec 1995
0.00%
0 out of 346
+0.71%
Mar 1998 - Feb 2009
+5.52% +10.60%
Jan 1985 - Dec 1995
0.00%
0 out of 346
+4.32%
Mar 1997 - Feb 2009
+7.84% +14.17%
Jan 1985 - Dec 1996
0.00%
0 out of 334
+1.86%
Mar 1997 - Feb 2009
+5.31% +10.42%
Oct 1985 - Sep 1997
0.00%
0 out of 334
+4.91%
Mar 1996 - Feb 2009
+7.38% +14.26%
Apr 1985 - Mar 1998
0.00%
0 out of 322
+2.39%
Mar 1996 - Feb 2009
+5.12% +10.66%
Apr 1985 - Mar 1998
0.00%
0 out of 322
+5.71%
Oct 1997 - Sep 2011
+7.22% +14.24%
Jan 1985 - Dec 1998
0.00%
0 out of 310
+3.17%
Oct 1997 - Sep 2011
+4.96% +10.68%
Jan 1985 - Dec 1998
0.00%
0 out of 310
+4.97%
Oct 2007 - Sep 2022
+7.36% +14.23%
Jan 1985 - Dec 1999
0.00%
0 out of 298
+2.54%
Oct 2007 - Sep 2022
+5.02% +10.71%
Jan 1985 - Dec 1999
0.00%
0 out of 298
+5.10%
Nov 2007 - Oct 2023
+7.31% +13.18%
Jan 1985 - Dec 2000
0.00%
0 out of 286
+2.60%
Nov 2007 - Oct 2023
+4.99% +9.67%
Jan 1985 - Dec 2000
0.00%
0 out of 286
+5.56%
Jan 2000 - Dec 2016
+7.43% +12.17%
Jan 1985 - Dec 2001
0.00%
0 out of 274
+3.05%
Nov 2006 - Oct 2023
+5.04% +8.79%
Jan 1985 - Dec 2001
0.00%
0 out of 274
+5.88%
Jan 2001 - Dec 2018
+7.69% +11.13%
Jan 1985 - Dec 2002
0.00%
0 out of 262
+3.39%
Jan 2005 - Dec 2022
+5.14% +7.82%
Jan 1985 - Dec 2002
0.00%
0 out of 262
+5.48%
Jan 2000 - Dec 2018
+7.66% +11.64%
Jan 1985 - Dec 2003
0.00%
0 out of 250
+3.26%
Jan 2000 - Dec 2018
+5.20% +8.37%
Jan 1985 - Dec 2003
0.00%
0 out of 250
+5.44%
Apr 2000 - Mar 2020
+7.75% +11.57%
Jan 1985 - Dec 2004
0.00%
0 out of 238
+3.29%
Apr 2000 - Mar 2020
+5.15% +8.29%
Jan 1985 - Dec 2004
0.00%
0 out of 238
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