Paul Boyer Portfolio: Rolling Returns

Time Period: from January 1976 to September 2024 (~49 years)
Rebalancing: at every Jan 1st
Currency: USD
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When holding the Paul Boyer Portfolio, how long should you stay invested to have high probability to achieve a positive return?

Over the selected period (~49 years), the longest duration with a negative return was 50 months (from September 2019 to October 2023).

This indicates that, within the same timeframe, any rolling period of 51 months or more has consistently resulted in a positive return.

Understanding this metric is crucial as it highlights the importance of a safe investment horizon. Knowing the minimum duration required to likely see positive returns helps investors set realistic expectations and reinforces the strategy of staying invested through market cycles. This approach can mitigate the emotional reactions to short-term market fluctuations and enhance the likelihood of achieving financial goals.

Previous vs subsequent Returns

Is there a correlation between past and future returns over all 10-year rolling periods?

The following chart illustrates the relationship between past returns (x-axis) and subsequent returns (y-axis).

Data points are aggregated to show occurrences, and you can zoom in by clicking or drawing over the desired area.

PAUL BOYER PORTFOLIO
Previous vs Next Returns - 10 Years annualized
Time Period: 1 October 1994 - 30 September 2024 (30 Years)
Time Period: 1 January 1976 - 30 September 2024 (~49 years)

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As of Sep 30, 2024, the annualized return of the previous 10 years has been 4.41%.

Rolling Returns

A rolling return is a measure of investment performance that calculates the return of an investment over a set period of time, with the starting date rolling forward. This approach can provide a more accurate representation of the investment's historical performance and helps investors to evaluate the investment's consistency over time.

PAUL BOYER PORTFOLIO
Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Returns - Inflation Adjusted
Time Period: 1 October 1994 - 30 September 2024 (30 Years)
Time Period: 1 January 1976 - 30 September 2024 (~49 years)
US Inflation Adjusted:

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Rolling Period Analysis

By selecting the 'Rolling Period', the chart and data will update. To study a different date range, change the simulation settings.

PAUL BOYER PORTFOLIO
Rolling Returns Chart
Rolling Returns Chart - Inflation Adjusted
Time Period: 1 January 1976 - 30 September 2024 (~49 years)
US Inflation Adjusted:

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Swipe left to see all data
Worst Median Best Negative Periods
-17.29%
Nov 2021 - Oct 2022
+8.37% +44.89%
Feb 1979 - Jan 1980
14.98%
86 out of 574
-23.24%
Nov 2021 - Oct 2022
+5.07% +35.22%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1983
27.18%
156 out of 574
-7.60%
Nov 2021 - Oct 2023
+8.23% +30.21%
Feb 1978 - Jan 1980
6.94%
39 out of 562
-14.74%
Jul 1980 - Jun 1982
+4.57% +20.06%
Mar 1985 - Feb 1987
16.73%
94 out of 562
-3.66%
Oct 2020 - Sep 2023
+8.25% +23.78%
Feb 1977 - Jan 1980
4.55%
25 out of 550
-8.89%
Oct 2020 - Sep 2023
+4.56% +15.95%
Nov 2008 - Oct 2011
12.36%
68 out of 550
-0.41%
Feb 2012 - Jan 2016
+8.76% +21.13%
Sep 1976 - Aug 1980
0.37%
2 out of 538
-4.64%
Nov 2019 - Oct 2023
+4.93% +15.16%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1986
9.67%
52 out of 538
+1.23%
Feb 2012 - Jan 2017
+8.76% +16.62%
Jan 1976 - Dec 1980
0.00%
0 out of 526
-2.46%
Nov 2017 - Oct 2022
+4.99% +12.37%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1987
5.89%
31 out of 526
+1.39%
Nov 2012 - Oct 2018
+9.19% +14.71%
Feb 1977 - Jan 1983
0.00%
0 out of 514
-2.06%
Nov 2017 - Oct 2023
+4.90% +10.06%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1988
4.47%
23 out of 514
+1.86%
Nov 2011 - Oct 2018
+9.33% +14.26%
Jun 1976 - May 1983
0.00%
0 out of 502
-1.60%
Oct 2016 - Sep 2023
+5.23% +9.73%
Sep 2004 - Aug 2011
2.39%
12 out of 502
+2.36%
Nov 2014 - Oct 2022
+8.73% +14.04%
Dec 1978 - Nov 1986
0.00%
0 out of 490
-0.50%
Nov 2014 - Oct 2022
+5.16% +9.83%
May 2003 - Apr 2011
2.04%
10 out of 490
+2.41%
Nov 2013 - Oct 2022
+8.76% +14.03%
Sep 1977 - Aug 1986
0.00%
0 out of 478
-0.44%
Nov 2014 - Oct 2023
+5.22% +9.65%
Mar 2003 - Feb 2012
1.46%
7 out of 478
+1.78%
Oct 2012 - Sep 2022
+8.50% +14.32%
Sep 1976 - Aug 1986
0.00%
0 out of 466
-0.72%
Oct 2012 - Sep 2022
+5.08% +9.19%
Dec 2001 - Nov 2011
1.72%
8 out of 466
+1.90%
Oct 2012 - Sep 2023
+8.27% +13.46%
Sep 1976 - Aug 1987
0.00%
0 out of 454
-0.71%
Oct 2012 - Sep 2023
+5.04% +9.04%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1993
1.76%
8 out of 454
+2.20%
Nov 2011 - Oct 2023
+8.15% +12.38%
Feb 1982 - Jan 1994
0.00%
0 out of 442
-0.36%
Nov 2011 - Oct 2023
+5.12% +8.46%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1994
0.90%
4 out of 442
+2.95%
Nov 2010 - Oct 2023
+8.15% +12.32%
Sep 1976 - Aug 1989
0.00%
0 out of 430
+0.30%
Nov 2010 - Oct 2023
+5.24% +8.21%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1995
0.00%
0 out of 430
+3.90%
Oct 2009 - Sep 2023
+8.25% +12.24%
Feb 1978 - Jan 1992
0.00%
0 out of 418
+1.32%
Oct 2009 - Sep 2023
+5.33% +7.92%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1996
0.00%
0 out of 418
+4.14%
Nov 2007 - Oct 2022
+8.41% +12.31%
Jan 1979 - Dec 1993
0.00%
0 out of 406
+1.72%
Nov 2007 - Oct 2022
+5.56% +7.51%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1997
0.00%
0 out of 406
+4.08%
Nov 2007 - Oct 2023
+8.36% +12.45%
Feb 1978 - Jan 1994
0.00%
0 out of 394
+1.61%
Nov 2007 - Oct 2023
+5.57% +6.94%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1998
0.00%
0 out of 394
+4.92%
Nov 2006 - Oct 2023
+8.28% +12.54%
Sep 1976 - Aug 1993
0.00%
0 out of 382
+2.36%
Nov 2006 - Oct 2023
+5.52% +6.61%
Nov 1990 - Oct 2007
0.00%
0 out of 382
+5.21%
May 2006 - Apr 2024
+8.32% +12.20%
Jan 1976 - Dec 1993
0.00%
0 out of 370
+2.64%
May 2006 - Apr 2024
+5.51% +6.51%
Jul 1982 - Jun 2000
0.00%
0 out of 370
+5.71%
Nov 2004 - Oct 2023
+8.26% +11.77%
Sep 1976 - Aug 1995
0.00%
0 out of 358
+3.09%
Nov 2004 - Oct 2023
+5.41% +6.41%
Dec 1990 - Nov 2009
0.00%
0 out of 358
+5.93%
Nov 2003 - Oct 2023
+8.39% +11.43%
Feb 1976 - Jan 1996
0.00%
0 out of 346
+3.27%
Nov 2003 - Oct 2023
+5.32% +6.74%
Nov 1990 - Oct 2010
0.00%
0 out of 346
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