Rick Ferri Core Four Portfolio: Rolling Returns

Simulation Settings
Period: January 1970 - January 2025 (~55 years)
Rebalancing: at every Jan 1st
Currency: USD
Inflation: US
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When holding the Rick Ferri Core Four Portfolio, how long should you stay invested to have high probability to achieve a positive return?

Over the selected period (~55 years), the longest duration with a negative return was 116 months (from July 1999 to February 2009).

This indicates that, within the same timeframe, any rolling period of 117 months or more has consistently resulted in a positive return.

Understanding this metric is crucial as it highlights the importance of a safe investment horizon. Knowing the minimum duration required to likely see positive returns helps investors set realistic expectations and reinforces the strategy of staying invested through market cycles. This approach can mitigate the emotional reactions to short-term market fluctuations and enhance the likelihood of achieving financial goals.

Previous vs subsequent Returns

Is there a correlation between past and future returns over all 10-year rolling periods?

The following chart illustrates the relationship between past returns (x-axis) and subsequent returns (y-axis).

Data points are aggregated to show occurrences, and you can zoom in by clicking or drawing over the desired area.

RICK FERRI CORE FOUR PORTFOLIO
Previous vs Next Returns - 10 Years annualized
Time Period: 1 February 1995 - 31 January 2025 (30 Years)
Time Period: 1 January 1970 - 31 January 2025 (~55 years)

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As of Jan 31, 2025, the annualized return of the previous 10 years has been 8.37%.

Rolling Returns

A rolling return is a measure of investment performance that calculates the return of an investment over a set period of time, with the starting date rolling forward. This approach can provide a more accurate representation of the investment's historical performance and helps investors to evaluate the investment's consistency over time.

RICK FERRI CORE FOUR PORTFOLIO
Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Returns - Inflation Adjusted
Time Period: 1 February 1995 - 31 January 2025 (30 Years)
Time Period: 1 January 1970 - 31 January 2025 (~55 years)
US Inflation Adjusted:

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Rolling Period Analysis

By selecting the 'Rolling Period', the chart and data will update. To study a different date range, change the simulation settings.

RICK FERRI CORE FOUR PORTFOLIO
Rolling Returns Chart
Rolling Returns Chart - Inflation Adjusted
Time Period: 1 January 1970 - 31 January 2025 (~55 years)
US Inflation Adjusted:

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Swipe left to see all data
Worst Median Best Negative Periods
-37.84%
Mar 2008 - Feb 2009
+12.20% +53.97%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1983
18.77%
122 out of 650
-37.88%
Oct 1973 - Sep 1974
+8.15% +50.25%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1983
26.31%
171 out of 650
-21.61%
Mar 2007 - Feb 2009
+11.22% +35.43%
Jul 1984 - Jun 1986
12.54%
80 out of 638
-23.37%
Oct 1972 - Sep 1974
+6.38% +31.91%
Aug 1984 - Jul 1986
20.06%
128 out of 638
-11.08%
Mar 2006 - Feb 2009
+10.23% +33.03%
Aug 1984 - Jul 1987
9.58%
60 out of 626
-12.98%
Mar 2006 - Feb 2009
+6.12% +29.14%
Aug 1984 - Jul 1987
20.29%
127 out of 626
-5.71%
Mar 2005 - Feb 2009
+9.81% +28.04%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1986
3.75%
23 out of 614
-8.05%
Mar 2005 - Feb 2009
+5.78% +24.38%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1986
18.57%
114 out of 614
-2.71%
Mar 2004 - Feb 2009
+10.00% +28.16%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1987
1.00%
6 out of 602
-5.47%
Jan 1970 - Dec 1974
+5.68% +24.26%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1987
12.79%
77 out of 602
+2.92%
Mar 1997 - Feb 2003
+9.24% +23.06%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1987
0.00%
0 out of 590
-3.47%
Dec 1972 - Nov 1978
+5.69% +18.85%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1987
6.27%
37 out of 590
+0.61%
Mar 2002 - Feb 2009
+9.28% +22.48%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1989
0.00%
0 out of 578
-2.84%
Apr 1973 - Mar 1980
+5.44% +18.28%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1989
5.88%
34 out of 578
-0.14%
Mar 2001 - Feb 2009
+9.46% +19.57%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1990
0.18%
1 out of 566
-2.47%
Mar 2001 - Feb 2009
+5.76% +15.29%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1990
5.65%
32 out of 566
-0.90%
Mar 2000 - Feb 2009
+9.40% +19.36%
Apr 1978 - Mar 1987
0.36%
2 out of 554
-3.34%
Mar 2000 - Feb 2009
+5.94% +13.79%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1991
5.78%
32 out of 554
+0.83%
Mar 1999 - Feb 2009
+9.48% +18.56%
Sep 1977 - Aug 1987
0.00%
0 out of 542
-2.19%
Aug 1972 - Jul 1982
+6.28% +12.78%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1992
3.69%
20 out of 542
+1.39%
Mar 1998 - Feb 2009
+9.57% +17.47%
Sep 1976 - Aug 1987
0.00%
0 out of 530
-1.09%
Mar 1998 - Feb 2009
+6.58% +12.90%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1993
1.89%
10 out of 530
+2.99%
Mar 1997 - Feb 2009
+9.51% +17.59%
Oct 1975 - Sep 1987
0.00%
0 out of 518
+0.29%
Apr 1970 - Mar 1982
+6.37% +11.89%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1994
0.00%
0 out of 518
+3.86%
Mar 1996 - Feb 2009
+9.60% +18.47%
Oct 1974 - Sep 1987
0.00%
0 out of 506
+1.36%
Mar 1996 - Feb 2009
+6.37% +11.83%
Aug 1984 - Jul 1997
0.00%
0 out of 506
+4.91%
Oct 1997 - Sep 2011
+9.52% +16.75%
Oct 1974 - Sep 1988
0.00%
0 out of 494
+2.38%
Oct 1997 - Sep 2011
+6.24% +11.66%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1996
0.00%
0 out of 494
+4.79%
Mar 1994 - Feb 2009
+9.56% +17.15%
Oct 1974 - Sep 1989
0.00%
0 out of 482
+2.22%
Mar 1994 - Feb 2009
+5.94% +12.55%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1997
0.00%
0 out of 482
+5.16%
Mar 2000 - Feb 2016
+9.30% +15.93%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1998
0.00%
0 out of 470
+2.84%
Mar 1993 - Feb 2009
+6.06% +12.24%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1998
0.00%
0 out of 470
+5.54%
Jan 2000 - Dec 2016
+9.28% +15.68%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1999
0.00%
0 out of 458
+2.92%
Mar 1992 - Feb 2009
+5.94% +12.08%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1999
0.00%
0 out of 458
+5.86%
Mar 1991 - Feb 2009
+9.52% +15.42%
Apr 1982 - Mar 2000
0.00%
0 out of 446
+3.21%
Mar 1991 - Feb 2009
+5.92% +11.78%
Aug 1982 - Jul 2000
0.00%
0 out of 446
+5.49%
Jan 2000 - Dec 2018
+9.68% +15.29%
Oct 1974 - Sep 1993
0.00%
0 out of 434
+3.13%
Mar 1990 - Feb 2009
+5.91% +10.77%
Oct 1981 - Sep 2000
0.00%
0 out of 434
+5.22%
Apr 2000 - Mar 2020
+9.53% +14.93%
Apr 1980 - Mar 2000
0.00%
0 out of 422
+3.08%
Apr 2000 - Mar 2020
+5.90% +10.66%
Apr 1980 - Mar 2000
0.00%
0 out of 422
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