Scott Burns Couch Potato To EUR Hedged Portfolio: ETF allocation and returns

Simulation Settings
Period: January 1985 - October 2024 (~40 years)
Consolidated Returns as of 31 October 2024
Rebalancing: at every Jan 1st
Currency: EUR
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1.00€
Initial Capital
November 1994
9.08€
Final Capital
October 2024
7.63%
Yearly Return
8.51
Std Deviation
-25.79%
Max Drawdown
22months
Recovery Period
1.00€
Initial Capital
January 1985
29.48€
Final Capital
October 2024
8.87%
Yearly Return
8.92
Std Deviation
-25.79%
Max Drawdown
22months
Recovery Period

The Scott Burns Couch Potato To EUR Hedged Portfolio can be implemented with 2 ETFs. This portfolio has a medium risk, signifying moderate fluctuations in value. It is suitable for investors with a balanced approach to risk and return, seeking steady growth while tolerating some level of volatility.

The portfolio asset allocation is: 50% on the Stock Market, 50% on Fixed Income, 0% on Commodities. In general, bonds are useful for mitigating overall portfolio risk, especially if they are issued by national entities or highly reliable companies. This portfolio has a 50% allocation to bonds, leading to its classification as medium risk.

As of October 2024, in the previous 30 Years, the Scott Burns Couch Potato To EUR Hedged Portfolio obtained a 7.63% compound annual return, with a 8.51% standard deviation. It suffered a maximum drawdown of -25.79% that required 22 months to be recovered.

Disclaimer: The simulations on this website are provided in good faith but should NOT be taken as investment advice. We are not liable for any errors or actions based on this information. The authors of the website are not affiliated with the portfolio creators, who are the sole owners of their intellectual property. The translation of asset allocations into ETFs is based on the interpretation of LazyPortfolioETF.com and may not exactly reflect the original intent of the portfolio creators. Content is for informational, educational, illustrative, and entertainment purposes only.

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Asset Allocation and ETFs

To effectively implement the asset allocation of the Scott Burns Couch Potato To EUR Hedged Portfolio, investors can utilize the following selection of ETFs. These ETFs have been chosen specifically for their ability to represent each asset class within the portfolio and facilitate ease of management.

50% Stocks
50% Fixed Income
0% Commodities

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Weight
(%)		 ETF
Ticker		 ETF
Currency		 ETF Name Investment Themes (Orig.Currency)
50.00
XD9E.DE
EUR
Hedged 		Xtrackers MSCI USA EUR Hedged Equity, U.S., Large Cap (USD)
50.00
IBC5.DE
EUR
Hedged 		iShares USD TIPS EUR Hedged Bond, U.S., All-Term (USD)

Most of Lazy Portfolios are made of common components (asset classes), very simple and well defined. For a more complete view, find out the most common ETFs you can use to build your portfolio.

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Portfolio and ETF Returns as of Oct 31, 2024

The Scott Burns Couch Potato To EUR Hedged Portfolio guaranteed the following returns.

Returns are calculated in EUR, assuming:
SCOTT BURNS COUCH POTATO TO EUR HEDGED PORTFOLIO
1 January 1985 - 31 October 2024 (~40 years)
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  Chg (%) Return (%) Return (%) as of Oct 31, 2024
  1 Day Time ET(*) Nov 2024 YTD
(10M) 		1M 6M 1Y 5Y 10Y 30Y MAX
(~40Y)
Investment Return n.a. n.a. 9.94 -1.02 8.08 21.59 6.64 5.67 7.63 8.87
Euro Inflation Adjusted Return 7.35 -1.35 7.24 19.20 2.74 3.19 5.46 6.58
Components
XD9E.DE
EUR
Hedged 		Xtrackers MSCI USA EUR Hedged n.a. - n.a. 18.84 0.00 12.24 37.17 12.66 10.62 9.75 10.83
IBC5.DE
EUR
Hedged 		iShares USD TIPS EUR Hedged n.a. - n.a. 1.04 -2.18 3.56 6.34 0.26 0.45 4.62 6.18
Returns over 1 year are annualized
(*) Eastern Time (ET - America/New York)
Euro Inflation is updated to Oct 2024. Inflation (annualized) is 1Y: 2.01% , 5Y: 3.80% , 10Y: 2.40% , 30Y: 2.06%
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Capital Growth as of Oct 31, 2024

An investment of 1€, from November 1994 to October 2024, would be worth 9.08€, with a total return of 808.44% (7.63% annualized).

The Inflation Adjusted Capital would be 4.93€, with a net total return of 393.38% (5.46% annualized).

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An investment of 1€, from January 1985 to October 2024, would be worth 29.48€, with a total return of 2847.99% (8.87% annualized).

The Inflation Adjusted Capital would be 12.66€, with a net total return of 1166.49% (6.58% annualized).

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Portfolio Metrics as of Oct 31, 2024

Metrics of Scott Burns Couch Potato To EUR Hedged Portfolio, updated as of 31 October 2024, provide a comprehensive overview of the portfolio's performance and risk characteristics.

These metrics include detailed data on returns, volatility, drawdowns and other key performance indicators. By examining them, you can gain insights into how the portfolio has performed over various time periods and understand its risk profile.

Metrics are calculated based on monthly returns, assuming:
SCOTT BURNS COUCH POTATO TO EUR HEDGED PORTFOLIO
Advanced Metrics
1 January 1985 - 31 October 2024 (~40 years)
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Metrics as of Oct 31, 2024
YTD
(10M) 		1M 3M 6M 1Y 3Y 5Y 10Y 20Y 30Y MAX
(~40Y)
Investment Return (%)
9.94 -1.02 1.97 8.08 21.59 1.04 6.64 5.67 6.34 7.63 8.87
Growth of 1€ 1.10 0.99 1.02 1.08 1.22 1.03 1.38 1.74 3.42 9.08 29.48
Infl. Adjusted Return (%)
7.35 -1.35 1.58 7.24 19.20 -3.87 2.74 3.19 4.15 5.46 6.58
Euro Inflation (%) 2.41 0.34 0.39 0.79 2.01 5.11 3.80 2.40 2.11 2.06 2.14
Returns / Inflation rates over 1 year are annualized.
DRAWDOWN
Inflation Adjusted:
Inflation Adjusted:
 Current 1Y 3Y 5Y 10Y 20Y 30Y MAX
Deepest Drawdown Depth (%) -1.02 -2.52 -19.97 -19.97 -19.97 -25.79 -25.79 -25.79
Start to Recovery (# months)
1* 3 32 32 32 22 22 22
Start (yyyy mm) 2024 04 2022 01 2022 01 2022 01 2008 06 2008 06 2008 06
Start to Bottom (# months) 1 9 9 9 9 9 9
Bottom (yyyy mm) 2024 04 2022 09 2022 09 2022 09 2009 02 2009 02 2009 02
Bottom to End (# months) 2 23 23 23 13 13 13
End (yyyy mm) 2024 06 2024 08 2024 08 2024 08 2010 03 2010 03 2010 03
Longest Drawdown Depth (%)
same
same
same
same		 -19.97 -10.01 -10.01
Start to Recovery (# months)
32 33 33
Start (yyyy mm) 2024 04 2022 01 2022 01 2022 01 2022 01 2000 09 2000 09
Start to Bottom (# months) 1 9 9 9 9 13 13
Bottom (yyyy mm) 2024 04 2022 09 2022 09 2022 09 2022 09 2001 09 2001 09
Bottom to End (# months) 2 23 23 23 23 20 20
End (yyyy mm) 2024 06 2024 08 2024 08 2024 08 2024 08 2003 05 2003 05
Longest negative period (# months)
2 31 35 35 53 64 64
Start (yyyy mm) 2024 03 2021 11 2020 12 2020 12 2004 11 2003 11 2003 11
End (yyyy mm) 2024 04 2024 05 2023 10 2023 10 2009 03 2009 02 2009 02
Annualized Return (%) -3.39 -1.09 -0.51 -0.51 -0.56 -0.02 -0.02
Drawdowns / Negative periods marked with * are in progress
Deepest Drawdown Depth (%) -12.03 -3.08 -26.20 -26.20 -26.20 -27.23 -27.23 -27.23
Start to Recovery (# months)
34* 3 34* 34* 34* 35 35 35
Start (yyyy mm) 2024 04 2022 01 2022 01 2022 01 2007 11 2007 11 2007 11
Start to Bottom (# months) 1 22 22 22 16 16 16
Bottom (yyyy mm) 2024 04 2023 10 2023 10 2023 10 2009 02 2009 02 2009 02
Bottom to End (# months) 2 12 12 12 19 19 19
End (yyyy mm) 2024 06 - - - 2010 09 2010 09 2010 09
Longest Drawdown Depth (%)
same
same
same
same
same		 -13.98 -13.98
Start to Recovery (# months)
38 38
Start (yyyy mm) 2024 04 2022 01 2022 01 2022 01 2007 11 2000 09 2000 09
Start to Bottom (# months) 1 22 22 22 16 25 25
Bottom (yyyy mm) 2024 04 2023 10 2023 10 2023 10 2009 02 2002 09 2002 09
Bottom to End (# months) 2 12 12 12 19 13 13
End (yyyy mm) 2024 06 - - - 2010 09 2003 10 2003 10
Longest negative period (# months)
3 36* 48 71 71 122 122
Start (yyyy mm) 2024 02 2021 11 2019 11 2017 12 2017 12 1999 01 1999 01
End (yyyy mm) 2024 04 2024 10 2023 10 2023 10 2023 10 2009 02 2009 02
Annualized Return (%) -4.10 -3.87 -1.00 -0.07 -0.07 -0.04 -0.04
Drawdowns / Negative periods marked with * are in progress
RISK INDICATORS
1Y 3Y 5Y 10Y 20Y 30Y MAX
Standard Deviation (%) 7.51 10.86 10.62 8.74 8.63 8.51 8.92
Sharpe Ratio 2.17 -0.23 0.42 0.47 0.56 0.63 0.64
Sortino Ratio 3.14 -0.31 0.54 0.62 0.73 0.82 0.85
Ulcer Index 0.78 11.05 8.75 6.43 6.09 5.37 5.08
Ratio: Return / Standard Deviation 2.88 0.10 0.63 0.65 0.73 0.90 0.99
Ratio: Return / Deepest Drawdown 8.57 0.05 0.33 0.28 0.25 0.30 0.34
Positive Months (%)
83.33 58.33 65.00 66.66 66.25 66.38 66.52
Positive Months 10 21 39 80 159 239 318
Negative Months 2 15 21 40 81 121 160
LONG TERM RETURNS
Inflation Adjusted:
Inflation Adjusted:
 1Y 3Y 5Y 10Y 20Y 30Y MAX
Best 10 Years Return (%) - Annualized 5.67 9.91 10.79 15.14
Worst 10 Years Return (%) - Annualized 4.53 2.23 2.23
Best 10 Years Return (%) - Annualized 3.19 8.55 8.65 12.29
Worst 10 Years Return (%) - Annualized 2.24 0.12 0.12
TIMEFRAMES
Inflation Adjusted:
Inflation Adjusted:
 1M 3M 6M 1Y 3Y 5Y 10Y 20Y 30Y MAX
··· As of Oct 2024 - Over the previous 30Y
Best Rolling Return (%) - Annualized 32.81 19.71 16.08 10.79 8.79 7.63
Worst Rolling Return (%) - Annualized -23.97 -5.87 -1.47 2.23 5.38
Positive Periods (%) 83.3 96.3 99.3 100.0 100.0 100.0
Best Rolling Return (%) - Annualized 31.68 17.46 14.14 8.65 6.79 5.46
Worst Rolling Return (%) - Annualized -25.05 -7.80 -3.53 0.12 3.59
Positive Periods (%) 77.3 81.2 97.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
95% VaR - Value at Risk (%) - Cumulative
3.40 5.07 6.03 10.75 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
95% CVaR - Conditional Value at Risk (%) 4.42 6.83 8.53 16.37 5.12 0.00 0.00 0.00
99% VaR - Value at Risk (%) - Cumulative
5.07 7.97 10.13 19.36 10.50 0.00 0.00 0.00
99% CVaR - Conditional Value at Risk (%) 6.14 9.81 12.74 22.57 13.96 4.07 0.00 0.00
Short term VaRs: analytical | 1+ year VaRs: historical data
Safe Withdrawal Rate (%) 84.21 27.80 19.40 10.51 6.50 8.00
Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (%) --- --- --- 0.14 3.34 6.38
% based on initial capital, inflation-adj. monthly withdrawals afterwards | Credits: BestRetirementPortfolio.com
··· All available data (Jan 1985 - Oct 2024)
Best Rolling Return (%) - Annualized 34.80 23.57 18.10 15.14 11.63 9.93
Worst Rolling Return (%) - Annualized -23.97 -5.87 -1.47 2.23 5.38 6.88
Positive Periods (%) 83.0 97.2 99.5 100.0 100.0 100.0
Best Rolling Return (%) - Annualized 34.65 19.37 14.40 12.29 9.25 7.73
Worst Rolling Return (%) - Annualized -25.05 -7.80 -3.53 0.12 3.59 4.70
Positive Periods (%) 77.7 85.7 97.8 100.0 100.0 100.0
95% VaR - Value at Risk (%) - Cumulative
3.49 5.10 5.91 6.84 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
95% CVaR - Conditional Value at Risk (%) 4.56 6.95 8.53 14.25 3.09 0.00 0.00 0.00
99% VaR - Value at Risk (%) - Cumulative
5.24 8.14 10.21 18.29 10.33 0.00 0.00 0.00
99% CVaR - Conditional Value at Risk (%) 6.36 10.08 12.94 20.94 12.82 2.50 0.00 0.00
Short term VaRs: analytical | 1+ year VaRs: historical data
Safe Withdrawal Rate (%) 84.21 27.80 19.40 10.51 6.50 7.18
Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (%) --- --- --- 0.14 3.34 5.42
% based on initial capital, inflation-adj. monthly withdrawals afterwards | Credits: BestRetirementPortfolio.com
Terms and Definitions
  • Annualized Portfolio Return: it's the annualized geometric mean return of the portfolio.
  • Deepest/Longest Drawdown: a drawdown refers to the decline in value from a relative peak value to a relative trough. The deepest (or maximum) drawdown is the maximum observed loss from a peak to a trough of a portfolio before a new peak is attained. The longest drawdown is the period observed from a peak to the subsequent peak with the greatest duration.
  • Longest negative period: it's the maximum period for which an overall negative return has been observed.
  • Standard Deviation: it's a measure of the dispersion of returns around the mean.
  • Sharpe Ratio: it's a measure of risk-adjusted performance of the portfolio. It's calculated by dividing the excess return of the portfolio over the risk-free rate by the portfolio standard deviation. The risk-free rate here considered is the 1-3 Mth T-Bill return.
  • Sortino Ratio: another measure of risk-adjusted performance of the portfolio. It's a modification of the Sharpe Ratio (same formula but the denominator is the portfolio downside standard deviation).
  • Ulcer Index: it's a measure of downside risk that quantifies the depth and duration of drawdowns in an investment portfolio.
  • Best/Worst 10Y returns: the best and the worst 10-year return over a time frame.
  • Rolling Returns: N-year returns over a time frame, calculated over all the available data source (best, worst, % of positive returns). Each rolling period, longer than the longest negative period, yielded a non-negative minimum return.
  • Value at Risk (VaR): it's an evaluation of a cumulative worst-case loss (in absolute value), associated with a probability (95%-99%) and a time horizon. For short term, it's calculated based on the expected return and standard deviation, assuming a normal distribution of monthly returns. For long term is retrieved by the historical rolling return data.
  • Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR): it represents the average expected loss if that worst-case threshold (95%-99%) is ever crossed.
  • Safe Withdrawal Rate (SWR): it's the percentage of the initial portfolio balance that can be withdrawn at the beginning of each month with inflation adjustment, without the portfolio running out of money in any case (money amount withdrawal).
    For instance: Your initial invested capital is 100.000$; withdrawal rate (annualized) is 4%. This means that, in the first month, you will withdraw 100.000 * 4% * 1/12 = 333.33$. The second month, you’ll withdraw 333.33$ plus the inflation monthly rate. You’ll continue adjusting your withdraw monthly for inflation.
  • Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (PWR): it's the percentage of the initial portfolio balance that can be withdrawn at the beginning of each month with inflation adjustment, preserving the original invested capital, adjusted for inflation too.
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Portfolio Components Correlation

Correlation measures to what degree the returns of two assets move in relation to each other. It is a statistical measure that describes the extent to which the returns of one asset are related to the returns of another asset.

COMPONENTS MONTHLY CORRELATIONS
Monthly correlations as of 31 October 2024
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Terms and Definitions
Correlation values range between -1 and +1
  • A correlation of +1 indicates that the returns of the two assets move in perfect synchrony; when one asset's returns go up, the other asset's returns also go up by the same percentage, and vice versa. This perfect positive correlation implies that the assets perform similarly in different market conditions.
  • A correlation of -1 indicates a perfect inverse relationship between the returns of the two assets. When one asset's returns go up, the other asset's returns go down by the same percentage. This perfect negative correlation suggests that the assets move in opposite directions, providing a diversification benefit by reducing overall portfolio risk.
  • A correlation of 0 means that there is no linear relationship between the returns of the two assets. The returns of one asset do not predict the returns of the other.
Learn about historical correlations here: see how the main asset classes relate to each other.

Drawdowns

A drawdown refers to the decline in value from a relative peak value to a relative trough. A maximum drawdown is the maximum observed loss from a peak to a trough of a portfolio before a new peak is attained.

SCOTT BURNS COUCH POTATO TO EUR HEDGED PORTFOLIO
Drawdown periods
Drawdown periods - Inflation Adjusted
1 November 1994 - 31 October 2024 (30 Years)
1 January 1985 - 31 October 2024 (~40 years)
Inflation Adjusted:

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Rolling Returns

For a detailed rolling return analysis, click here
Scott Burns Couch Potato To EUR Hedged Portfolio: Rolling Returns

A rolling return is a measure of investment performance that calculates the return of an investment over a set period of time, with the starting date rolling forward. This approach can provide a more accurate representation of the investment's historical performance and helps investors to evaluate the investment's consistency over time.

SCOTT BURNS COUCH POTATO TO EUR HEDGED PORTFOLIO
Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Returns - Inflation Adjusted
1 November 1994 - 31 October 2024 (30 Years)
1 January 1985 - 31 October 2024 (~40 years)
Inflation Adjusted:

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The values shown for the rolling periods represent key statistical points: the minimum, maximum, median, and the 15th and 85th percentiles. These percentiles give insight into the distribution of the data, indicating the range within which the central 70% of the values lie, while the median represents the middle value.

Seasonality

In which months is it better to invest in Scott Burns Couch Potato To EUR Hedged Portfolio?

Both the Average Return and the Gain Frequency (Win %) are useful to get an idea of what happened in the past. They are retrieved considering the time period from January 1985 to October 2024.

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For further information about the seasonality, check the Asset Class Seasonality page.

Monthly Returns

This section provides a visual/tabular representation of the performance variability in the Scott Burns Couch Potato To EUR Hedged Portfolio over time. It illustrates the distribution of monthly returns, showcasing the range and frequency of positive and negative returns.

SCOTT BURNS COUCH POTATO TO EUR HEDGED PORTFOLIO
Monthly Returns Distribution
1 November 1994 - 31 October 2024 (30 Years)
1 January 1985 - 31 October 2024 (~40 years)
239 Positive Months (66%) - 121 Negative Months (34%)
318 Positive Months (67%) - 160 Negative Months (33%)

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Methodology

Returns, up to April 2018, have been derived using the historical series of equivalent ETFs / Assets, instead of the actual ETFs of the portfolio.
You can find additional information on extended Data Sources here.

In particular, the series derived from equivalent datasets are:
  • Xtrackers MSCI USA EUR Hedged (XD9E.DE), up to April 2018
  • iShares USD TIPS EUR Hedged (IBC5.DE), up to March 2018

Portfolio efficiency

The following portfolios granted a higher return over 30 Years and a less severe drawdown at the same time.

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In the following table, you can compare the current portfolio with a list of famous portfolios. Metrics are calculated over the last 30 Years.

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The following portfolios share asset allocation strategy and/or similar asset weights.

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Mastering ETF Investing
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