Rebalancing: at every Jan 1st
Currency: EUR
When holding the Scott Burns Couch Potato To EUR Portfolio, how long should you stay invested to have high probability to achieve a positive return?
Over the selected period (~40 years), the longest duration with a negative return was 120 months (from November 2000 to October 2010).
This indicates that, within the same timeframe, any rolling period of 121 months or more has consistently resulted in a positive return.
Understanding this metric is crucial as it highlights the importance of a safe investment horizon. Knowing the minimum duration required to likely see positive returns helps investors set realistic expectations and reinforces the strategy of staying invested through market cycles. This approach can mitigate the emotional reactions to short-term market fluctuations and enhance the likelihood of achieving financial goals.
Scott Burns Couch Potato To EUR Portfolio: ETF allocation and returns
Previous vs subsequent Returns
Is there a correlation between past and future returns over all 10-year rolling periods?
The following chart illustrates the relationship between past returns (x-axis) and subsequent returns (y-axis).
Data points are aggregated to show occurrences, and you can zoom in by clicking or drawing over the desired area.
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As of Aug 31, 2024, the annualized return of the previous 10 years has been 9.19%.
Rolling Returns
A rolling return is a measure of investment performance that calculates the return of an investment over a set period of time, with the starting date rolling forward. This approach can provide a more accurate representation of the investment's historical performance and helps investors to evaluate the investment's consistency over time.
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Rolling Period Analysis
By selecting the 'Rolling Period', the chart and data will update. To study a different date range, change the simulation settings.
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Worst | Median | Best | Negative Periods |
---|---|---|---|
-23.05%
Apr 2002 - Mar 2003 |
+8.07% |
+55.03%
Aug 1996 - Jul 1997 |
26.45%
123 out of 465 |
-24.97%
Nov 1989 - Oct 1990 |
+6.04% |
+52.76%
Aug 1996 - Jul 1997 |
31.61%
147 out of 465 |
-13.64%
Jun 2001 - May 2003 |
+8.90% |
+33.24%
Aug 1995 - Jul 1997 |
17.88%
81 out of 453 |
-15.28%
Jun 2001 - May 2003 |
+6.56% |
+30.79%
Aug 1995 - Jul 1997 |
25.39%
115 out of 453 |
-7.31%
Mar 2006 - Feb 2009 |
+8.60% |
+29.36%
Apr 1995 - Mar 1998 |
14.51%
64 out of 441 |
-9.21%
Mar 2006 - Feb 2009 |
+6.13% |
+27.18%
Apr 1995 - Mar 1998 |
17.46%
77 out of 441 |
-5.52%
Nov 2000 - Oct 2004 |
+9.47% |
+27.42%
Sep 1996 - Aug 2000 |
10.49%
45 out of 429 |
-7.59%
Nov 2000 - Oct 2004 |
+6.77% |
+25.54%
Sep 1996 - Aug 2000 |
16.78%
72 out of 429 |
-2.70%
Jun 2001 - May 2006 |
+9.02% |
+24.86%
Apr 1995 - Mar 2000 |
6.24%
26 out of 417 |
-4.76%
Jun 2001 - May 2006 |
+6.42% |
+22.89%
Apr 1995 - Mar 2000 |
15.11%
63 out of 417 |
-2.75%
Apr 2002 - Mar 2008 |
+9.03% |
+23.15%
Nov 1994 - Oct 2000 |
5.43%
22 out of 405 |
-4.96%
Apr 2002 - Mar 2008 |
+6.35% |
+21.01%
Nov 1994 - Oct 2000 |
12.59%
51 out of 405 |
-3.15%
Mar 2002 - Feb 2009 |
+9.29% |
+19.08%
Jul 1994 - Jun 2001 |
5.60%
22 out of 393 |
-5.14%
Mar 2002 - Feb 2009 |
+6.69% |
+16.82%
Jul 1994 - Jun 2001 |
9.16%
36 out of 393 |
-3.04%
Jun 2001 - May 2009 |
+9.30% |
+20.71%
Sep 1992 - Aug 2000 |
6.30%
24 out of 381 |
-4.98%
Jun 2001 - May 2009 |
+7.56% |
+18.24%
Sep 1992 - Aug 2000 |
7.87%
30 out of 381 |
-2.16%
Nov 2000 - Oct 2009 |
+9.35% |
+18.44%
Feb 1991 - Jan 2000 |
3.79%
14 out of 369 |
-4.13%
Nov 2000 - Oct 2009 |
+7.05% |
+15.68%
Feb 1991 - Jan 2000 |
10.57%
39 out of 369 |
-0.06%
Nov 2000 - Oct 2010 |
+9.23% |
+19.74%
Nov 1990 - Oct 2000 |
0.28%
1 out of 357 |
-2.06%
Nov 2000 - Oct 2010 |
+7.15% |
+16.94%
Nov 1990 - Oct 2000 |
10.08%
36 out of 357 |
+0.40%
Sep 2000 - Aug 2011 |
+8.81% |
+16.65%
Nov 1990 - Oct 2001 |
0.00%
0 out of 345 |
-1.64%
Sep 2000 - Aug 2011 |
+6.78% |
+13.94%
Nov 1990 - Oct 2001 |
3.19%
11 out of 345 |
+2.17%
Nov 2000 - Oct 2012 |
+9.14% |
+16.13%
May 1988 - Apr 2000 |
0.00%
0 out of 333 |
+0.00%
Nov 2000 - Oct 2012 |
+7.06% |
+13.22%
May 1988 - Apr 2000 |
0.00%
0 out of 333 |
+2.41%
Sep 2000 - Aug 2013 |
+8.53% |
+16.23%
Dec 1987 - Nov 2000 |
0.00%
0 out of 321 |
+0.34%
Sep 2000 - Aug 2013 |
+6.78% |
+13.34%
Dec 1987 - Nov 2000 |
0.00%
0 out of 321 |
+3.22%
May 2000 - Apr 2014 |
+7.91% |
+14.81%
Jan 1988 - Dec 2001 |
0.00%
0 out of 309 |
+1.17%
May 2000 - Apr 2014 |
+6.27% |
+11.98%
Jan 1988 - Dec 2001 |
0.00%
0 out of 309 |
+4.17%
Sep 2000 - Aug 2015 |
+7.88% |
+12.90%
Nov 1985 - Oct 2000 |
0.00%
0 out of 297 |
+2.32%
Sep 2000 - Aug 2015 |
+6.13% |
+10.47%
Nov 1985 - Oct 2000 |
0.00%
0 out of 297 |
+4.39%
Nov 2000 - Oct 2016 |
+7.98% |
+11.71%
Dec 1987 - Nov 2003 |
0.00%
0 out of 285 |
+2.62%
Nov 2000 - Oct 2016 |
+5.97% |
+9.26%
Feb 1986 - Jan 2002 |
0.00%
0 out of 285 |
+4.26%
Sep 2000 - Aug 2017 |
+7.76% |
+10.98%
Jan 1988 - Dec 2004 |
0.00%
0 out of 273 |
+2.51%
Sep 2000 - Aug 2017 |
+5.71% |
+8.41%
Jan 1985 - Dec 2001 |
0.00%
0 out of 273 |
+4.47%
Nov 2000 - Oct 2018 |
+7.92% |
+11.46%
Dec 1987 - Nov 2005 |
0.00%
0 out of 261 |
+2.69%
Nov 2000 - Oct 2018 |
+5.86% |
+8.79%
Dec 1987 - Nov 2005 |
0.00%
0 out of 261 |
+4.91%
Nov 2000 - Oct 2019 |
+8.02% |
+10.65%
Dec 1987 - Nov 2006 |
0.00%
0 out of 249 |
+3.16%
Nov 2000 - Oct 2019 |
+5.82% |
+8.04%
Dec 1987 - Nov 2006 |
0.00%
0 out of 249 |
+4.96%
Nov 2000 - Oct 2020 |
+7.95% |
+9.99%
Dec 1987 - Nov 2007 |
0.00%
0 out of 237 |
+3.31%
Nov 2000 - Oct 2020 |
+5.71% |
+7.99%
Apr 1995 - Mar 2015 |
0.00%
0 out of 237 |
Scott Burns Couch Potato To EUR Portfolio: ETF allocation and returns