JL Collins Simple Path to Wealth Portfolio: Rolling Returns

Simulation Settings
Period: January 1871 - January 2025 (~154 years)
Rebalancing: at every Jan 1st
Currency: USD
Inflation: US
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When holding the JL Collins Simple Path to Wealth Portfolio, how long should you stay invested to have high probability to achieve a positive return?

Over the selected period (~154 years), the longest duration with a negative return was 163 months (from December 1928 to June 1942).

This indicates that, within the same timeframe, any rolling period of 164 months or more has consistently resulted in a positive return.

Understanding this metric is crucial as it highlights the importance of a safe investment horizon. Knowing the minimum duration required to likely see positive returns helps investors set realistic expectations and reinforces the strategy of staying invested through market cycles. This approach can mitigate the emotional reactions to short-term market fluctuations and enhance the likelihood of achieving financial goals.

Previous vs subsequent Returns

Is there a correlation between past and future returns over all 10-year rolling periods?

The following chart illustrates the relationship between past returns (x-axis) and subsequent returns (y-axis).

Data points are aggregated to show occurrences, and you can zoom in by clicking or drawing over the desired area.

JL COLLINS SIMPLE PATH TO WEALTH PORTFOLIO
Previous vs Next Returns - 10 Years annualized
Time Period: 1 February 1995 - 31 January 2025 (30 Years)
Time Period: 1 January 1871 - 31 January 2025 (~154 years)

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As of Jan 31, 2025, the annualized return of the previous 10 years has been 10.24%.

Rolling Returns

A rolling return is a measure of investment performance that calculates the return of an investment over a set period of time, with the starting date rolling forward. This approach can provide a more accurate representation of the investment's historical performance and helps investors to evaluate the investment's consistency over time.

JL COLLINS SIMPLE PATH TO WEALTH PORTFOLIO
Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Returns - Inflation Adjusted
Time Period: 1 February 1995 - 31 January 2025 (30 Years)
Time Period: 1 January 1871 - 31 January 2025 (~154 years)
US Inflation Adjusted:

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Rolling Period Analysis

By selecting the 'Rolling Period', the chart and data will update. To study a different date range, change the simulation settings.

JL COLLINS SIMPLE PATH TO WEALTH PORTFOLIO
Rolling Returns Chart
Rolling Returns Chart - Inflation Adjusted
Time Period: 1 January 1871 - 31 January 2025 (~154 years)
US Inflation Adjusted:

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Swipe left to see all data
Worst Median Best Negative Periods
-54.20%
Jul 1931 - Jun 1932
+9.57% +109.11%
Jul 1932 - Jun 1933
24.21%
445 out of 1838
-49.15%
Jul 1931 - Jun 1932
+7.36% +123.93%
Jul 1932 - Jun 1933
29.71%
546 out of 1838
-42.58%
Jun 1930 - May 1932
+8.88% +43.49%
Jul 1932 - Jun 1934
17.42%
318 out of 1826
-36.23%
Jun 1930 - May 1932
+6.62% +44.56%
Jul 1932 - Jun 1934
23.49%
429 out of 1826
-32.34%
Jul 1929 - Jun 1932
+8.67% +34.94%
Mar 1933 - Feb 1936
12.57%
228 out of 1814
-26.97%
Jul 1929 - Jun 1932
+6.42% +31.25%
Mar 1933 - Feb 1936
18.58%
337 out of 1814
-20.47%
Jun 1928 - May 1932
+8.59% +32.83%
Jul 1932 - Jun 1936
8.16%
147 out of 1802
-15.81%
Jun 1928 - May 1932
+6.45% +32.34%
Jul 1932 - Jun 1936
16.09%
290 out of 1802
-12.63%
Jun 1927 - May 1932
+8.64% +28.33%
Jun 1932 - May 1937
4.92%
88 out of 1790
-10.45%
Jan 1916 - Dec 1920
+6.50% +27.05%
Jun 1932 - May 1937
15.08%
270 out of 1790
-7.87%
Jul 1926 - Jun 1932
+8.49% +22.81%
Sep 1923 - Aug 1929
3.77%
67 out of 1778
-8.26%
Oct 1968 - Sep 1974
+6.26% +22.57%
Sep 1923 - Aug 1929
11.53%
205 out of 1778
-4.94%
Jul 1925 - Jun 1932
+8.35% +19.66%
Apr 1980 - Mar 1987
2.15%
38 out of 1766
-6.34%
Oct 1967 - Sep 1974
+6.05% +19.55%
Sep 1921 - Aug 1928
9.85%
174 out of 1766
-3.67%
Apr 1930 - Mar 1938
+8.11% +21.46%
Sep 1921 - Aug 1929
0.91%
16 out of 1754
-5.92%
Aug 1912 - Jul 1920
+6.04% +21.80%
Sep 1921 - Aug 1929
10.60%
186 out of 1754
-3.07%
Apr 1929 - Mar 1938
+8.04% +17.88%
Sep 1920 - Aug 1929
1.15%
20 out of 1742
-5.90%
Jul 1911 - Jun 1920
+6.20% +19.99%
Sep 1920 - Aug 1929
9.70%
169 out of 1742
-1.79%
Sep 1929 - Aug 1939
+8.00% +16.47%
Sep 1977 - Aug 1987
0.58%
10 out of 1730
-4.42%
Jul 1911 - Jun 1921
+6.26% +16.35%
Jun 1920 - May 1930
9.25%
160 out of 1730
-1.43%
Sep 1929 - Aug 1940
+8.01% +15.88%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1993
0.41%
7 out of 1718
-3.55%
Aug 1909 - Jul 1920
+6.46% +14.40%
Sep 1918 - Aug 1929
7.39%
127 out of 1718
-0.96%
May 1930 - Apr 1942
+8.02% +15.98%
Oct 1974 - Sep 1986
0.47%
8 out of 1706
-2.62%
Jan 1909 - Dec 1920
+6.42% +12.82%
Jun 1949 - May 1961
6.21%
106 out of 1706
-1.41%
Sep 1929 - Aug 1942
+7.95% +16.79%
Oct 1974 - Sep 1987
0.53%
9 out of 1694
-1.71%
Oct 1968 - Sep 1981
+6.30% +12.45%
Dec 1948 - Nov 1961
5.79%
98 out of 1694
+0.67%
Dec 1928 - Nov 1942
+7.79% +15.79%
Jul 1984 - Jun 1998
0.00%
0 out of 1682
-2.13%
Aug 1906 - Jul 1920
+6.21% +12.20%
Jun 1932 - May 1946
3.86%
65 out of 1682
+1.52%
Sep 1929 - Aug 1944
+7.78% +16.43%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1997
0.00%
0 out of 1670
-1.97%
Jan 1906 - Dec 1920
+6.13% +12.63%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1997
2.28%
38 out of 1670
+2.03%
Jul 1916 - Jun 1932
+7.73% +16.41%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1998
0.00%
0 out of 1658
-1.25%
Sep 1905 - Aug 1921
+6.00% +12.70%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1998
1.93%
32 out of 1658
+2.82%
Jul 1915 - Jun 1932
+7.72% +16.35%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1999
0.00%
0 out of 1646
-0.41%
Jun 1903 - May 1920
+5.81% +12.73%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1999
0.73%
12 out of 1646
+2.80%
Jun 1914 - May 1932
+7.81% +16.12%
Apr 1982 - Mar 2000
0.00%
0 out of 1634
-0.77%
Aug 1902 - Jul 1920
+5.78% +12.37%
Apr 1982 - Mar 2000
0.67%
11 out of 1634
+2.84%
Jun 1913 - May 1932
+7.78% +15.55%
Apr 1980 - Mar 1999
0.00%
0 out of 1622
-1.06%
Jul 1901 - Jun 1920
+5.87% +11.51%
Oct 1981 - Sep 2000
1.11%
18 out of 1622
+2.55%
Jul 1912 - Jun 1932
+7.73% +15.70%
Apr 1980 - Mar 2000
0.00%
0 out of 1610
-0.53%
Jul 1901 - Jun 1921
+5.93% +11.39%
Apr 1980 - Mar 2000
0.25%
4 out of 1610
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