Stocks/Bonds 60/40 To EUR Portfolio: Rolling Returns

Time Period: from August 1953 to September 2024 (~71 years)
Rebalancing: at every Jan 1st
Currency: EUR
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When holding the Stocks/Bonds 60/40 To EUR Portfolio, how long should you stay invested to have high probability to achieve a positive return?

Over the selected period (~71 years), the longest duration with a negative return was 137 months (from April 2000 to August 2011).

This indicates that, within the same timeframe, any rolling period of 138 months or more has consistently resulted in a positive return.

Understanding this metric is crucial as it highlights the importance of a safe investment horizon. Knowing the minimum duration required to likely see positive returns helps investors set realistic expectations and reinforces the strategy of staying invested through market cycles. This approach can mitigate the emotional reactions to short-term market fluctuations and enhance the likelihood of achieving financial goals.

Previous vs subsequent Returns

Is there a correlation between past and future returns over all 10-year rolling periods?

The following chart illustrates the relationship between past returns (x-axis) and subsequent returns (y-axis).

Data points are aggregated to show occurrences, and you can zoom in by clicking or drawing over the desired area.

STOCKS/BONDS 60/40 TO EUR PORTFOLIO
Previous vs Next Returns - 10 Years annualized
Time Period: 1 October 1994 - 30 September 2024 (30 Years)
Time Period: 1 August 1953 - 30 September 2024 (~71 years)

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As of Sep 30, 2024, the annualized return of the previous 10 years has been 9.79%.

Rolling Returns

A rolling return is a measure of investment performance that calculates the return of an investment over a set period of time, with the starting date rolling forward. This approach can provide a more accurate representation of the investment's historical performance and helps investors to evaluate the investment's consistency over time.

STOCKS/BONDS 60/40 TO EUR PORTFOLIO
Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Returns - Inflation Adjusted
Time Period: 1 October 1994 - 30 September 2024 (30 Years)
Time Period: 1 August 1953 - 30 September 2024 (~71 years)
Euro Inflation Adjusted:

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Rolling Period Analysis

By selecting the 'Rolling Period', the chart and data will update. To study a different date range, change the simulation settings.

STOCKS/BONDS 60/40 TO EUR PORTFOLIO
Rolling Returns Chart
Rolling Returns Chart - Inflation Adjusted
Time Period: 1 August 1953 - 30 September 2024 (~71 years)
Euro Inflation Adjusted:

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Swipe left to see all data
Worst Median Best Negative Periods
-28.96%
Apr 2002 - Mar 2003
+9.35% +65.22%
Jun 1982 - May 1983
23.96%
202 out of 843
-30.61%
Apr 2002 - Mar 2003
+6.90% +60.05%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1983
30.96%
261 out of 843
-18.02%
Jan 1973 - Dec 1974
+9.20% +40.45%
Feb 1982 - Jan 1984
15.40%
128 out of 831
-23.25%
Jan 1973 - Dec 1974
+6.47% +35.89%
Feb 1982 - Jan 1984
22.38%
186 out of 831
-10.64%
Oct 2000 - Sep 2003
+8.88% +38.42%
Mar 1982 - Feb 1985
11.84%
97 out of 819
-15.33%
Jan 1972 - Dec 1974
+6.24% +34.29%
Mar 1982 - Feb 1985
19.29%
158 out of 819
-8.30%
Nov 2000 - Oct 2004
+8.81% +32.79%
Feb 1981 - Jan 1985
9.79%
79 out of 807
-11.49%
Jan 1971 - Dec 1974
+5.89% +27.84%
Feb 1981 - Jan 1985
18.22%
147 out of 807
-4.66%
May 2000 - Apr 2005
+8.98% +33.98%
Mar 1980 - Feb 1985
7.67%
61 out of 795
-8.79%
Oct 1969 - Sep 1974
+6.13% +28.69%
Mar 1980 - Feb 1985
18.87%
150 out of 795
-4.26%
Apr 2002 - Mar 2008
+9.04% +29.37%
Mar 1979 - Feb 1985
6.26%
49 out of 783
-8.44%
Dec 1968 - Nov 1974
+6.18% +23.90%
Mar 1979 - Feb 1985
17.11%
134 out of 783
-4.57%
Apr 2002 - Mar 2009
+8.67% +26.45%
Mar 1978 - Feb 1985
5.06%
39 out of 771
-6.53%
Jul 2001 - Jun 2008
+6.16% +21.38%
Mar 1978 - Feb 1985
15.56%
120 out of 771
-4.17%
Jun 2001 - May 2009
+8.87% +21.47%
Apr 1978 - Mar 1986
3.69%
28 out of 759
-6.09%
Jun 2001 - May 2009
+6.30% +18.91%
Sep 1992 - Aug 2000
16.73%
127 out of 759
-3.55%
Nov 2000 - Oct 2009
+9.08% +20.49%
Jan 1975 - Dec 1983
3.21%
24 out of 747
-5.50%
Nov 2000 - Oct 2009
+6.65% +16.32%
Feb 1991 - Jan 2000
16.06%
120 out of 747
-1.34%
Nov 2000 - Oct 2010
+9.26% +20.97%
Feb 1975 - Jan 1985
2.59%
19 out of 735
-3.32%
Nov 2000 - Oct 2010
+6.97% +17.27%
Nov 1990 - Oct 2000
14.56%
107 out of 735
-0.97%
Sep 2000 - Aug 2011
+9.02% +19.00%
Jan 1975 - Dec 1985
0.55%
4 out of 723
-2.99%
Sep 2000 - Aug 2011
+6.76% +14.49%
Jan 1975 - Dec 1985
13.14%
95 out of 723
+0.91%
Nov 2000 - Oct 2012
+9.03% +17.01%
Oct 1974 - Sep 1986
0.00%
0 out of 711
-1.23%
Nov 2000 - Oct 2012
+6.66% +13.82%
Jan 1988 - Dec 1999
8.86%
63 out of 711
+1.53%
Sep 2000 - Aug 2013
+9.06% +16.50%
Oct 1974 - Sep 1987
0.00%
0 out of 699
-1.49%
Jan 1962 - Dec 1974
+6.77% +13.50%
Dec 1987 - Nov 2000
4.15%
29 out of 699
+2.46%
May 2000 - Apr 2014
+9.07% +15.81%
Nov 1979 - Oct 1993
0.00%
0 out of 687
-0.58%
Jan 1961 - Dec 1974
+6.68% +12.35%
Nov 1979 - Oct 1993
2.33%
16 out of 687
+3.29%
Jan 1960 - Dec 1974
+8.90% +15.63%
Dec 1978 - Nov 1993
0.00%
0 out of 675
-0.22%
Jan 1960 - Dec 1974
+6.42% +12.03%
Dec 1978 - Nov 1993
0.44%
3 out of 675
+3.51%
Jan 1959 - Dec 1974
+8.66% +14.78%
Apr 1982 - Mar 1998
0.00%
0 out of 663
+0.12%
Jan 1959 - Dec 1974
+6.09% +12.09%
Apr 1982 - Mar 1998
0.00%
0 out of 663
+3.88%
Sep 2000 - Aug 2017
+8.62% +15.77%
Aug 1980 - Jul 1997
0.00%
0 out of 651
+0.25%
Dec 1961 - Nov 1978
+5.99% +12.66%
Aug 1980 - Jul 1997
0.00%
0 out of 651
+4.22%
Apr 2000 - Mar 2018
+8.46% +16.39%
Apr 1980 - Mar 1998
0.00%
0 out of 639
+0.77%
Apr 1962 - Mar 1980
+5.77% +13.29%
Apr 1980 - Mar 1998
0.00%
0 out of 639
+4.73%
Nov 2000 - Oct 2019
+8.33% +16.06%
Apr 1980 - Mar 1999
0.00%
0 out of 627
+0.92%
Apr 1961 - Mar 1980
+5.73% +13.08%
Apr 1980 - Mar 1999
0.00%
0 out of 627
+4.73%
Nov 2000 - Oct 2020
+8.49% +16.72%
Apr 1980 - Mar 2000
0.00%
0 out of 615
+1.42%
Jan 1959 - Dec 1978
+5.67% +13.76%
Apr 1980 - Mar 2000
0.00%
0 out of 615
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