Rebalancing: at every Jan 1st
Currency: CAD
When holding the Vanguard Growth Portfolio, how long should you stay invested to have high probability to achieve a positive return?
Over the selected period (~37 years), the longest duration with a negative return was 112 months (from November 1999 to February 2009).
This indicates that, within the same timeframe, any rolling period of 113 months or more has consistently resulted in a positive return.
Understanding this metric is crucial as it highlights the importance of a safe investment horizon. Knowing the minimum duration required to likely see positive returns helps investors set realistic expectations and reinforces the strategy of staying invested through market cycles. This approach can mitigate the emotional reactions to short-term market fluctuations and enhance the likelihood of achieving financial goals.
Vanguard Growth Portfolio: ETF allocation and returns
Previous vs subsequent Returns
Is there a correlation between past and future returns over all 10-year rolling periods?
The following chart illustrates the relationship between past returns (x-axis) and subsequent returns (y-axis).
Data points are aggregated to show occurrences, and you can zoom in by clicking or drawing over the desired area.
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As of Dec 31, 2024, the annualized return of the previous 10 years has been 8.99%.
Rolling Returns
A rolling return is a measure of investment performance that calculates the return of an investment over a set period of time, with the starting date rolling forward. This approach can provide a more accurate representation of the investment's historical performance and helps investors to evaluate the investment's consistency over time.
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Rolling Period Analysis
By selecting the 'Rolling Period', the chart and data will update. To study a different date range, change the simulation settings.
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Worst | Median | Best | Negative Periods |
---|---|---|---|
-26.19%
Mar 2008 - Feb 2009 |
+10.65% |
+33.00%
Apr 2020 - Mar 2021 |
18.48%
80 out of 433 |
-27.23%
Mar 2008 - Feb 2009 |
+8.43% |
+30.41%
Feb 1993 - Jan 1994 |
22.63%
98 out of 433 |
-16.84%
Mar 2007 - Feb 2009 |
+9.61% |
+25.15%
Sep 1998 - Aug 2000 |
12.59%
53 out of 421 |
-18.17%
Mar 2007 - Feb 2009 |
+7.11% |
+22.31%
Sep 1998 - Aug 2000 |
20.19%
85 out of 421 |
-10.50%
Apr 2000 - Mar 2003 |
+9.27% |
+20.52%
May 1995 - Apr 1998 |
11.25%
46 out of 409 |
-12.97%
Apr 2000 - Mar 2003 |
+6.80% |
+18.95%
May 1995 - Apr 1998 |
14.67%
60 out of 409 |
-3.86%
Sep 2000 - Aug 2004 |
+9.42% |
+18.52%
Sep 1996 - Aug 2000 |
8.31%
33 out of 397 |
-6.02%
Sep 2000 - Aug 2004 |
+6.79% |
+16.39%
Sep 1996 - Aug 2000 |
17.13%
68 out of 397 |
-1.66%
Mar 2004 - Feb 2009 |
+9.29% |
+17.96%
Apr 1995 - Mar 2000 |
2.86%
11 out of 385 |
-3.50%
Mar 2004 - Feb 2009 |
+6.69% |
+16.05%
Mar 1995 - Feb 2000 |
13.77%
53 out of 385 |
+0.79%
Sep 2000 - Aug 2006 |
+8.39% |
+16.76%
May 1992 - Apr 1998 |
0.00%
0 out of 373 |
-1.49%
Sep 2000 - Aug 2006 |
+6.35% |
+15.14%
May 1992 - Apr 1998 |
2.41%
9 out of 373 |
-0.23%
Mar 2002 - Feb 2009 |
+8.07% |
+17.02%
Oct 1990 - Sep 1997 |
0.28%
1 out of 361 |
-2.31%
Mar 2002 - Feb 2009 |
+5.71% |
+14.79%
Jan 1993 - Dec 1999 |
1.66%
6 out of 361 |
-0.83%
Feb 2001 - Jan 2009 |
+7.45% |
+16.42%
Sep 1992 - Aug 2000 |
0.86%
3 out of 349 |
-2.79%
Feb 2001 - Jan 2009 |
+5.18% |
+14.57%
Sep 1992 - Aug 2000 |
3.72%
13 out of 349 |
-1.31%
Mar 2000 - Feb 2009 |
+7.54% |
+16.21%
Jan 1991 - Dec 1999 |
1.19%
4 out of 337 |
-3.37%
Mar 2000 - Feb 2009 |
+5.25% |
+14.17%
Jan 1991 - Dec 1999 |
4.15%
14 out of 337 |
+0.77%
Jul 2000 - Jun 2010 |
+7.82% |
+15.98%
Oct 1990 - Sep 2000 |
0.00%
0 out of 325 |
-1.19%
Sep 2000 - Aug 2010 |
+5.76% |
+13.70%
Oct 1990 - Sep 2000 |
5.85%
19 out of 325 |
+1.34%
Oct 2000 - Sep 2011 |
+8.04% |
+14.17%
Jan 1989 - Dec 1999 |
0.00%
0 out of 313 |
-0.74%
Sep 2000 - Aug 2011 |
+5.94% |
+11.56%
Apr 1989 - Mar 2000 |
2.24%
7 out of 313 |
+1.78%
Sep 2000 - Aug 2012 |
+8.04% |
+14.19%
Sep 1988 - Aug 2000 |
0.00%
0 out of 301 |
-0.24%
Sep 2000 - Aug 2012 |
+5.96% |
+11.47%
Sep 1988 - Aug 2000 |
0.66%
2 out of 301 |
+2.78%
Jan 2000 - Dec 2012 |
+7.85% |
+12.61%
Feb 1988 - Jan 2001 |
0.00%
0 out of 289 |
+0.77%
Jan 2000 - Dec 2012 |
+5.89% |
+9.85%
Feb 1988 - Jan 2001 |
0.00%
0 out of 289 |
+3.64%
Jun 1998 - May 2012 |
+7.52% |
+11.06%
Jan 1988 - Dec 2001 |
0.00%
0 out of 277 |
+1.51%
Jun 1998 - May 2012 |
+5.64% |
+8.42%
Jan 1988 - Dec 2001 |
0.00%
0 out of 277 |
+4.26%
Aug 1997 - Jul 2012 |
+7.28% |
+10.60%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2024 |
0.00%
0 out of 265 |
+2.24%
Aug 1997 - Jul 2012 |
+5.37% |
+8.19%
Oct 1990 - Sep 2005 |
0.00%
0 out of 265 |
+4.43%
Apr 2000 - Mar 2016 |
+6.95% |
+10.54%
Jan 1991 - Dec 2006 |
0.00%
0 out of 253 |
+2.50%
Apr 2000 - Mar 2016 |
+4.91% |
+8.49%
Feb 1991 - Jan 2007 |
0.00%
0 out of 253 |
+4.74%
Sep 2000 - Aug 2017 |
+6.92% |
+10.39%
Oct 1990 - Sep 2007 |
0.00%
0 out of 241 |
+2.85%
Sep 2000 - Aug 2017 |
+4.77% |
+8.14%
Oct 1990 - Sep 2007 |
0.00%
0 out of 241 |
+5.13%
Apr 2000 - Mar 2018 |
+7.11% |
+9.97%
Jan 1989 - Dec 2006 |
0.00%
0 out of 229 |
+3.18%
Apr 2000 - Mar 2018 |
+5.01% |
+7.47%
Dec 1988 - Nov 2006 |
0.00%
0 out of 229 |
+4.96%
Jan 2000 - Dec 2018 |
+7.28% |
+9.96%
Feb 1988 - Jan 2007 |
0.00%
0 out of 217 |
+3.03%
Jan 2000 - Dec 2018 |
+5.20% |
+7.38%
Feb 1988 - Jan 2007 |
0.00%
0 out of 217 |
+4.56%
Apr 2000 - Mar 2020 |
+7.36% |
+9.42%
Jan 1988 - Dec 2007 |
0.00%
0 out of 205 |
+2.67%
Apr 2000 - Mar 2020 |
+5.26% |
+6.84%
Jan 1988 - Dec 2007 |
0.00%
0 out of 205 |
Vanguard Growth Portfolio: ETF allocation and returns