Vanguard LifeStrategy Conservative Growth To EUR Portfolio: Rolling Returns

Time Period: from July 1987 to September 2024 (~37 years)
Rebalancing: at every Jan 1st
Currency: EUR
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When holding the Vanguard LifeStrategy Conservative Growth To EUR Portfolio, how long should you stay invested to have high probability to achieve a positive return?

Over the selected period (~37 years), the longest duration with a negative return was 50 months (from September 2000 to October 2004).

This indicates that, within the same timeframe, any rolling period of 51 months or more has consistently resulted in a positive return.

Understanding this metric is crucial as it highlights the importance of a safe investment horizon. Knowing the minimum duration required to likely see positive returns helps investors set realistic expectations and reinforces the strategy of staying invested through market cycles. This approach can mitigate the emotional reactions to short-term market fluctuations and enhance the likelihood of achieving financial goals.

Previous vs subsequent Returns

Is there a correlation between past and future returns over all 10-year rolling periods?

The following chart illustrates the relationship between past returns (x-axis) and subsequent returns (y-axis).

Data points are aggregated to show occurrences, and you can zoom in by clicking or drawing over the desired area.

VANGUARD LIFESTRATEGY CONSERVATIVE GROWTH TO EUR PORTFOLIO
Previous vs Next Returns - 10 Years annualized
Time Period: 1 October 1994 - 30 September 2024 (30 Years)
Time Period: 1 July 1987 - 30 September 2024 (~37 years)

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As of Sep 30, 2024, the annualized return of the previous 10 years has been 4.81%.

Rolling Returns

A rolling return is a measure of investment performance that calculates the return of an investment over a set period of time, with the starting date rolling forward. This approach can provide a more accurate representation of the investment's historical performance and helps investors to evaluate the investment's consistency over time.

VANGUARD LIFESTRATEGY CONSERVATIVE GROWTH TO EUR PORTFOLIO
Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Returns - Inflation Adjusted
Time Period: 1 October 1994 - 30 September 2024 (30 Years)
Time Period: 1 July 1987 - 30 September 2024 (~37 years)
Euro Inflation Adjusted:

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Rolling Period Analysis

By selecting the 'Rolling Period', the chart and data will update. To study a different date range, change the simulation settings.

VANGUARD LIFESTRATEGY CONSERVATIVE GROWTH TO EUR PORTFOLIO
Rolling Returns Chart
Rolling Returns Chart - Inflation Adjusted
Time Period: 1 July 1987 - 30 September 2024 (~37 years)
Euro Inflation Adjusted:

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Swipe left to see all data
Worst Median Best Negative Periods
-14.45%
Jan 2022 - Dec 2022
+7.04% +30.46%
Aug 1996 - Jul 1997
19.27%
84 out of 436
-21.66%
Jan 2022 - Dec 2022
+5.00% +28.55%
Aug 1996 - Jul 1997
26.15%
114 out of 436
-7.58%
Mar 2007 - Feb 2009
+6.73% +19.72%
Aug 1995 - Jul 1997
11.56%
49 out of 424
-11.58%
Nov 2021 - Oct 2023
+4.68% +17.52%
Aug 1995 - Jul 1997
20.05%
85 out of 424
-3.99%
Mar 2006 - Feb 2009
+6.72% +17.66%
Apr 1995 - Mar 1998
5.10%
21 out of 412
-5.96%
Mar 2006 - Feb 2009
+4.54% +15.68%
Apr 1995 - Mar 1998
19.42%
80 out of 412
-0.31%
Mar 2005 - Feb 2009
+6.58% +15.56%
Sep 1996 - Aug 2000
0.50%
2 out of 400
-3.08%
Nov 2019 - Oct 2023
+4.36% +13.85%
Sep 1996 - Aug 2000
14.00%
56 out of 400
+0.60%
Mar 2004 - Feb 2009
+6.03% +15.35%
Apr 1995 - Mar 2000
0.00%
0 out of 388
-1.50%
Mar 2004 - Feb 2009
+4.28% +13.53%
Apr 1995 - Mar 2000
5.93%
23 out of 388
+2.22%
Sep 2000 - Aug 2006
+5.67% +13.03%
Nov 1994 - Oct 2000
0.00%
0 out of 376
-0.91%
Nov 2017 - Oct 2023
+4.17% +11.07%
Nov 1994 - Oct 2000
2.39%
9 out of 376
+1.04%
Mar 2002 - Feb 2009
+6.20% +12.30%
Sep 1992 - Aug 1999
0.00%
0 out of 364
-1.04%
Mar 2002 - Feb 2009
+4.48% +10.00%
Jan 1993 - Dec 1999
2.47%
9 out of 364
+0.93%
Mar 2001 - Feb 2009
+6.16% +12.99%
Sep 1992 - Aug 2000
0.00%
0 out of 352
-1.37%
Nov 2000 - Oct 2008
+4.74% +10.68%
Sep 1992 - Aug 2000
3.98%
14 out of 352
+0.79%
Apr 2000 - Mar 2009
+6.29% +12.37%
Jan 1991 - Dec 1999
0.00%
0 out of 340
-1.32%
Apr 2000 - Mar 2009
+4.72% +9.69%
Jan 1991 - Dec 1999
2.94%
10 out of 340
+2.24%
Apr 1999 - Mar 2009
+6.24% +12.09%
Nov 1990 - Oct 2000
0.00%
0 out of 328
+0.12%
Apr 1999 - Mar 2009
+4.68% +9.47%
Nov 1990 - Oct 2000
0.00%
0 out of 328
+2.73%
Apr 1998 - Mar 2009
+6.18% +10.46%
May 1988 - Apr 1999
0.00%
0 out of 316
+0.65%
Sep 2000 - Aug 2011
+4.34% +7.73%
Dec 1990 - Nov 2001
0.00%
0 out of 316
+3.51%
Jan 2000 - Dec 2011
+6.00% +10.95%
Jan 1988 - Dec 1999
0.00%
0 out of 304
+1.29%
May 2000 - Apr 2012
+4.30% +8.17%
Jan 1988 - Dec 1999
0.00%
0 out of 304
+3.57%
Sep 2000 - Aug 2013
+5.88% +10.58%
Nov 1987 - Oct 2000
0.00%
0 out of 292
+1.48%
Sep 2000 - Aug 2013
+4.18% +7.85%
Nov 1987 - Oct 2000
0.00%
0 out of 292
+4.00%
Apr 2000 - Mar 2014
+5.88% +9.56%
Dec 1987 - Nov 2001
0.00%
0 out of 280
+1.93%
Apr 2000 - Mar 2014
+4.07% +6.88%
Dec 1987 - Nov 2001
0.00%
0 out of 280
+4.29%
Sep 2000 - Aug 2015
+5.81% +8.72%
Oct 1990 - Sep 2005
0.00%
0 out of 268
+2.43%
Sep 2000 - Aug 2015
+4.01% +6.22%
Dec 1990 - Nov 2005
0.00%
0 out of 268
+4.38%
Nov 2007 - Oct 2023
+5.78% +8.53%
Nov 1990 - Oct 2006
0.00%
0 out of 256
+2.24%
Nov 2007 - Oct 2023
+4.01% +6.08%
Nov 1990 - Oct 2006
0.00%
0 out of 256
+4.37%
Sep 2000 - Aug 2017
+5.96% +8.29%
Nov 1990 - Oct 2007
0.00%
0 out of 244
+2.22%
Nov 2006 - Oct 2023
+4.10% +5.83%
Nov 1990 - Oct 2007
0.00%
0 out of 244
+4.26%
Nov 2000 - Oct 2018
+6.09% +8.41%
Dec 1987 - Nov 2005
0.00%
0 out of 232
+2.41%
Nov 2005 - Oct 2023
+4.19% +5.82%
Dec 1987 - Nov 2005
0.00%
0 out of 232
+4.27%
Jan 2000 - Dec 2018
+6.11% +8.20%
Dec 1987 - Nov 2006
0.00%
0 out of 220
+2.49%
Jan 2000 - Dec 2018
+4.08% +5.65%
Dec 1987 - Nov 2006
0.00%
0 out of 220
+4.27%
Apr 2000 - Mar 2020
+6.12% +7.95%
Dec 1987 - Nov 2007
0.00%
0 out of 208
+2.57%
Apr 2000 - Mar 2020
+3.96% +5.52%
Apr 1995 - Mar 2015
0.00%
0 out of 208
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