Harry Browne Permanent vs Marvin Appel One-Decision Portfolio Comparison

Period: January 1928 - September 2024 (~97 years)
Consolidated Returns as of 30 September 2024
Rebalancing: at every Jan 1st
Currency: USD
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Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio
1.00$
Initial Capital
October 1994
7.43$
Final Capital
September 2024
6.92%
Yearly Return
6.63
Std Deviation
-15.92%
Max Drawdown
27 months
Recovery Period
Marvin Appel One-Decision Portfolio
1.00$
Initial Capital
October 1994
8.49$
Final Capital
September 2024
7.39%
Yearly Return
8.45
Std Deviation
-31.96%
Max Drawdown
41 months
Recovery Period
Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio
1.00$
Initial Capital
January 1928
491.05$
Final Capital
September 2024
6.61%
Yearly Return
6.88
Std Deviation
-30.61%
Max Drawdown
46 months
Recovery Period
Marvin Appel One-Decision Portfolio
1.00$
Initial Capital
January 1928
917.76$
Final Capital
September 2024
7.31%
Yearly Return
9.38
Std Deviation
-47.77%
Max Drawdown
83 months
Recovery Period

The Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio obtained a 6.92% compound annual return, with a 6.63% standard deviation, in the last 30 Years.

The Marvin Appel One-Decision Portfolio obtained a 7.39% compound annual return, with a 8.45% standard deviation, in the last 30 Years.

Returns as of Sep 30, 2024

The portfolios guaranteed the following returns.

RETURN COMPARISON
Period: 1 January 1928 - 30 September 2024 (~97 years)
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Return (%) as of Sep 30, 2024
YTD
(9M) 		1M 6M 1Y 5Y 10Y 30Y MAX
(~97Y)
Permanent Portfolio
Harry Browne 		13.39 2.48 9.25 24.07 6.41 6.01 6.92 6.61
One-Decision Portfolio
Marvin Appel 		9.89 1.72 7.69 20.69 6.31 6.37 7.39 7.31
Return over 1 year are annualized.

Capital Growth as of Sep 30, 2024

Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio: an investment of 1$, since October 1994, now would be worth 7.43$, with a total return of 643.46% (6.92% annualized).

Marvin Appel One-Decision Portfolio: an investment of 1$, since October 1994, now would be worth 8.49$, with a total return of 748.52% (7.39% annualized).


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Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio: an investment of 1$, since January 1928, now would be worth 491.05$, with a total return of 49004.75% (6.61% annualized).

Marvin Appel One-Decision Portfolio: an investment of 1$, since January 1928, now would be worth 917.76$, with a total return of 91675.82% (7.31% annualized).


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Metrics as of Sep 30, 2024

The following metrics, updated as of 30 September 2024, provide an overview of performance and risk.

METRIC COMPARISON
Period: 1 October 2023 - 30 September 2024 (1 year)
Period: 1 October 2019 - 30 September 2024 (5 years)
Period: 1 October 2014 - 30 September 2024 (10 years)
Period: 1 October 1994 - 30 September 2024 (30 years)
Period: 1 January 1928 - 30 September 2024 (~97 years)
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Permanent Portfolio One-Decision Portfolio
Author Harry Browne Marvin Appel
ASSET ALLOCATION
Stocks 25% 50%
Fixed Income 50% 50%
Commodities 25% 0%
PERFORMANCES
Annualized Return (%) 24.07 20.69
Infl. Adjusted Return (%) 21.15 17.85
DRAWDOWN
Deepest Drawdown Depth (%) -1.77 -3.55
Start to Recovery (months) 2 3
Longest Drawdown Depth (%) -0.01 -3.55
Start to Recovery (months) 2 3
Longest Negative Period (months) 1 4
RISK INDICATORS
Standard Deviation (%) 6.60 9.61
Sharpe Ratio 2.83 1.60
Sortino Ratio 3.91 2.20
Ulcer Index 0.51 1.21
Ratio: Return / Standard Deviation 3.65 2.15
Ratio: Return / Deepest Drawdown 13.62 5.83
Metrics calculated over the period 1 October 2023 - 30 September 2024
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Permanent Portfolio One-Decision Portfolio
Author Harry Browne Marvin Appel
ASSET ALLOCATION
Stocks 25% 50%
Fixed Income 50% 50%
Commodities 25% 0%
PERFORMANCES
Annualized Return (%) 6.41 6.31
Infl. Adjusted Return (%) 2.14 2.05
DRAWDOWN
Deepest Drawdown Depth (%) -15.92 -16.74
Start to Recovery (months) 27 31
Longest Drawdown Depth (%) -15.92 -16.74
Start to Recovery (months) 27 31
Longest Negative Period (months) 40 32
RISK INDICATORS
Standard Deviation (%) 8.58 11.10
Sharpe Ratio 0.49 0.37
Sortino Ratio 0.69 0.49
Ulcer Index 5.90 6.66
Ratio: Return / Standard Deviation 0.75 0.57
Ratio: Return / Deepest Drawdown 0.40 0.38
Metrics calculated over the period 1 October 2019 - 30 September 2024
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Permanent Portfolio One-Decision Portfolio
Author Harry Browne Marvin Appel
ASSET ALLOCATION
Stocks 25% 50%
Fixed Income 50% 50%
Commodities 25% 0%
PERFORMANCES
Annualized Return (%) 6.01 6.37
Infl. Adjusted Return (%) 3.07 3.42
DRAWDOWN
Deepest Drawdown Depth (%) -15.92 -16.74
Start to Recovery (months) 27 31
Longest Drawdown Depth (%) -15.92 -16.74
Start to Recovery (months) 27 31
Longest Negative Period (months) 40 32
RISK INDICATORS
Standard Deviation (%) 7.31 9.03
Sharpe Ratio 0.62 0.54
Sortino Ratio 0.89 0.72
Ulcer Index 4.69 4.92
Ratio: Return / Standard Deviation 0.82 0.71
Ratio: Return / Deepest Drawdown 0.38 0.38
Metrics calculated over the period 1 October 2014 - 30 September 2024
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Permanent Portfolio One-Decision Portfolio
Author Harry Browne Marvin Appel
ASSET ALLOCATION
Stocks 25% 50%
Fixed Income 50% 50%
Commodities 25% 0%
PERFORMANCES
Annualized Return (%) 6.92 7.39
Infl. Adjusted Return (%) 4.29 4.75
DRAWDOWN
Deepest Drawdown Depth (%) -15.92 -31.96
Start to Recovery (months) 27 41
Longest Drawdown Depth (%) -15.92 -31.96
Start to Recovery (months) 27 41
Longest Negative Period (months) 40 64
RISK INDICATORS
Standard Deviation (%) 6.63 8.45
Sharpe Ratio 0.70 0.60
Sortino Ratio 0.97 0.78
Ulcer Index 3.20 5.54
Ratio: Return / Standard Deviation 1.04 0.87
Ratio: Return / Deepest Drawdown 0.43 0.23
Metrics calculated over the period 1 October 1994 - 30 September 2024
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Permanent Portfolio One-Decision Portfolio
Author Harry Browne Marvin Appel
ASSET ALLOCATION
Stocks 25% 50%
Fixed Income 50% 50%
Commodities 25% 0%
PERFORMANCES
Annualized Return (%) 6.61 7.31
Infl. Adjusted Return (%) 3.47 4.14
DRAWDOWN
Deepest Drawdown Depth (%) -30.61 -47.77
Start to Recovery (months) 46 83
Longest Drawdown Depth (%) -14.17 -47.77
Start to Recovery (months) 53 83
Longest Negative Period (months) 68 154
RISK INDICATORS
Standard Deviation (%) 6.88 9.38
Sharpe Ratio 0.48 0.42
Sortino Ratio 0.71 0.58
Ulcer Index 4.29 7.71
Ratio: Return / Standard Deviation 0.96 0.78
Ratio: Return / Deepest Drawdown 0.22 0.15
Metrics calculated over the period 1 January 1928 - 30 September 2024

Drawdowns

DRAWDOWN COMPARISON
Period: 1 October 1994 - 30 September 2024 (30 years)
Period: 1 January 1928 - 30 September 2024 (~97 years)

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Permanent Portfolio One-Decision Portfolio
Drawdown
(%) 		Recovery
(#Months)		 From
To		 Drawdown
(%) 		Recovery
(#Months)		 From
To
-31.96 41 Jun 2007
Oct 2010
-16.74 31 Jan 2022
Jul 2024
-15.92 27 Jan 2022
Mar 2024
-13.04 10 Feb 2020
Nov 2020
-12.63 18 Mar 2008
Aug 2009
-8.52 8 Jun 2011
Jan 2012
-8.13 6 Jul 1998
Dec 1998
-7.23 14 Apr 2002
May 2003
-6.99 7 Sep 2018
Mar 2019
-6.98 13 Aug 2016
Aug 2017
-6.86 17 Oct 2012
Feb 2014
-6.73 15 Feb 2015
Apr 2016
-5.43 19 Sep 2000
Mar 2002
-5.34 4 Jul 1998
Oct 1998
-4.76 12 Apr 2015
Mar 2016

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Permanent Portfolio One-Decision Portfolio
Drawdown
(%) 		Recovery
(#Months)		 From
To		 Drawdown
(%) 		Recovery
(#Months)		 From
To
-47.77 83 Sep 1929
Jul 1936
-31.96 41 Jun 2007
Oct 2010
-30.61 46 Sep 1929
Jun 1933
-23.43 66 Aug 1937
Jan 1943
-18.44 31 Dec 1972
Jun 1975
-16.74 31 Jan 2022
Jul 2024
-15.92 27 Jan 2022
Mar 2024
-14.17 53 Mar 1937
Jul 1941
-13.04 10 Feb 2020
Nov 2020
-12.63 18 Mar 2008
Aug 2009
-12.38 13 Sep 1987
Sep 1988
-11.68 21 Dec 1980
Aug 1982
-11.38 5 Feb 1980
Jun 1980
-11.15 10 Apr 1974
Jan 1975
-10.91 21 May 1969
Jan 1971

Rolling Returns

By selecting the 'Rolling Period', the chart and data will update. To study a different date range, change the simulation settings.

You can explore the Rolling Returns for a single portfolio, or check the return differential, by switching on "Head To Head" toggle.

Rolling Returns Comparison
Rolling Returns Chart
Rolling Returns Chart - Inflation Adjusted
Time Period: 1 January 1928 - 30 September 2024 (~97 years)


Head To Head (Ptf 1 vs Ptf 2):
US Inflation Adjusted:

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Yearly Returns

For each year, the following table provides the return and intra-year drawdown.
The highlighted returns represent the highest values for that specific year.
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Permanent Portfolio One-Decision Portfolio
Year Return Drawdown Return Drawdown
2024
 13.39% -1.77% 9.89% -3.55%
2023
 11.55% -5.68% 12.43% -7.22%
2022
 -12.53% -15.92% -13.18% -16.74%
2021
 4.21% -4.43% 16.51% -2.73%
2020
 16.10% -3.30% 5.32% -13.04%
2019
 16.17% -1.10% 18.51% -2.02%
2018
 -1.76% -4.25% -3.64% -6.99%
2017
 10.97% -0.83% 8.07% -0.59%
2016
 5.54% -6.98% 8.52% -3.21%
2015
 -3.06% -6.73% -0.25% -4.76%
2014
 9.40% -2.62% 11.14% -2.54%
2013
 -2.08% -6.04% 10.43% -2.72%
2012
 6.41% -1.83% 10.65% -2.81%
2011
 11.11% -1.85% 3.87% -8.52%
2010
 13.92% -0.53% 13.01% -6.14%
2009
 7.85% -6.22% 15.30% -14.35%
2008
 0.87% -12.63% -16.74% -22.59%
2007
 12.69% -1.20% -0.68% -5.17%
2006
 10.94% -2.12% 14.45% -1.98%
2005
 8.91% -1.25% 5.08% -2.36%
2004
 6.83% -4.20% 12.05% -4.65%
2003
 13.32% -2.34% 18.87% -1.57%
2002
 5.85% -4.02% -2.42% -7.23%
2001
 -0.52% -4.13% 4.32% -3.58%
2000
 2.40% -3.23% 9.42% -2.13%
1999
 5.17% -3.54% 4.70% -3.16%
1998
 10.09% -5.34% 5.32% -8.13%
1997
 7.19% -2.33% 17.36% -1.24%
1996
 5.08% -2.02% 15.52% -1.31%
1995
 18.11% 0.00% 19.02% -0.66%
1994
 -1.37% -3.63% -1.28% -5.02%
1993
 12.00% -0.99% 11.41% -1.82%
1992
 3.57% -1.77% 9.68% -0.89%
1991
 11.72% -0.88% 23.01% -1.99%
1990
 1.11% -4.53% -1.89% -7.50%
1989
 12.90% -1.18% 15.28% -0.97%
1988
 4.39% -1.50% 12.57% -1.14%
1987
 7.42% -5.78% 2.00% -12.38%
1986
 17.64% -1.28% 13.98% -2.95%
1985
 20.47% -2.05% 20.92% -1.32%
1984
 2.22% -3.58% 12.26% -2.55%
1983
 3.46% -2.83% 19.12% -1.46%
1982
 23.27% -5.51% 23.18% -1.47%
1981
 -5.34% -9.88% 6.73% -5.61%
1980
 13.65% -11.38% 17.14% -6.77%
1979
 39.77% -4.50% 17.24% -6.81%
1978
 12.78% -5.31% 7.38% -5.77%
1977
 6.43% -2.00% 6.67% -0.92%
1976
 11.22% -2.75% 25.20% -1.17%
1975
 6.98% -7.00% 21.70% -5.67%
1974
 12.43% -11.15% -10.56% -15.06%
1973
 15.65% -6.85% -6.39% -6.65%
1972
 18.84% -1.56% 8.28% -1.29%
1971
 12.86% -1.09% 8.61% -4.84%
1970
 7.89% -4.68% 8.28% -8.62%
1969
 -6.38% -8.20% -0.95% -4.58%
1968
 9.27% -1.10% 8.59% -2.35%
1967
 6.11% -1.37% 11.78% -2.65%
1966
 -0.04% -3.86% -0.03% -6.32%
1965
 4.59% -0.95% 7.42% -2.29%
1964
 6.00% -0.25% 7.72% -0.79%
1963
 6.05% -0.74% 8.66% -1.64%
1962
 -0.23% -4.93% -0.86% -9.52%
1961
 6.50% -1.00% 9.51% -1.97%
1960
 5.64% -1.14% 3.46% -3.30%
1959
 2.72% -1.85% 4.93% -3.33%
1958
 9.97% -0.31% 15.16% -1.24%
1957
 0.57% -2.86% -0.23% -5.65%
1956
 1.35% -2.43% 2.65% -4.39%
1955
 6.24% -0.67% 8.77% -2.41%
1954
 14.12% -0.94% 17.75% -2.51%
1953
 -0.87% -4.16% 3.01% -2.68%
1952
 3.37% -1.26% 6.69% -2.02%
1951
 4.37% -1.85% 7.69% -3.72%
1950
 7.47% -1.53% 12.10% -3.16%
1949
 6.13% -1.15% 6.86% -3.12%
1948
 1.16% -2.70% 2.07% -5.48%
1947
 3.61% -1.52% 5.70% -1.97%
1946
 -0.66% -5.77% 2.54% -8.87%
1945
 12.40% -0.87% 17.56% -2.23%
1944
 5.95% -0.36% 12.01% -0.72%
1943
 8.33% -2.35% 13.73% -4.78%
1942
 5.04% -3.00% 7.74% -6.44%
1941
 -1.49% -3.80% -3.99% -6.60%
1940
 -0.01% -6.09% -0.89% -11.63%
1939
 1.75% -3.29% -0.68% -7.87%
1938
 8.45% -6.59% 10.93% -13.41%
1937
 -8.65% -10.20% -10.52% -14.62%
1936
 10.39% -1.85% 13.90% -4.16%
1935
 12.79% -1.85% 16.78% -6.35%
1934
 5.72% -3.27% 2.19% -8.93%
1933
 28.60% -5.74% 21.91% -12.56%
1932
 2.17% -10.03% -1.37% -21.80%
1931
 -12.64% -16.23% -15.40% -23.17%
1930
 -4.39% -9.07% -6.85% -15.85%
1929
 -0.83% -9.26% -2.21% -17.97%
1928
 10.25% -1.14% 12.69% -2.87%