Paul Merriman Ultimate Buy and Hold Strategy Portfolio vs Rick Ferri Core Four Portfolio Portfolio Comparison

Simulation Settings

Period: January 1976 - March 2025 (~49 years)
Consolidated Returns as of 31 March 2025

Rebalancing: at every Jan 1^st

Currency: USD

Inflation: US

(Change Settings)

Results

30 Years

All (since January 1976)

Inflation Adjusted:

Paul Merriman Ultimate Buy and Hold Strategy Portfolio

1.00$
Initial Capital
April 1995
11.38$
Final Capital
March 2025
8.44%
Yearly Return
15.76%
Std Deviation
-57.21%
Max Drawdown
63months
Recovery Period

1.00$
Initial Capital
April 1995
5.38$
Final Capital
March 2025
5.77%
Yearly Return
15.76%
Std Deviation
-57.92%
Max Drawdown
71months
Recovery Period

1.00$
Initial Capital
January 1976
210.36$
Final Capital
March 2025
11.47%
Yearly Return
15.33%
Std Deviation
-57.21%
Max Drawdown
63months
Recovery Period

1.00$
Initial Capital
January 1976
36.58$
Final Capital
March 2025
7.58%
Yearly Return
15.33%
Std Deviation
-57.92%
Max Drawdown
71months
Recovery Period

Rick Ferri Core Four Portfolio

1.00$
Initial Capital
April 1995
10.90$
Final Capital
March 2025
8.29%
Yearly Return
12.26%
Std Deviation
-44.44%
Max Drawdown
40months
Recovery Period

1.00$
Initial Capital
April 1995
5.16$
Final Capital
March 2025
5.62%
Yearly Return
12.26%
Std Deviation
-45.36%
Max Drawdown
63months
Recovery Period

1.00$
Initial Capital
January 1976
123.38$
Final Capital
March 2025
10.27%
Yearly Return
12.03%
Std Deviation
-44.44%
Max Drawdown
40months
Recovery Period

1.00$
Initial Capital
January 1976
21.46$
Final Capital
March 2025
6.42%
Yearly Return
12.03%
Std Deviation
-45.36%
Max Drawdown
63months
Recovery Period

As of March 2025, in the previous 30 Years, the Paul Merriman Ultimate Buy and Hold Strategy Portfolio obtained a 8.44% compound annual return, with a 15.76% standard deviation. It suffered a maximum drawdown of -57.21% that required 63 months to be recovered.

As of March 2025, in the previous 30 Years, the Rick Ferri Core Four Portfolio obtained a 8.29% compound annual return, with a 12.26% standard deviation. It suffered a maximum drawdown of -44.44% that required 40 months to be recovered.

Disclaimer: The simulations on this website are provided in good faith but should NOT be taken as investment advice. We are not liable for any errors or actions based on this information. The authors of the website are not affiliated with the portfolio creators, who are the sole owners of their intellectual property. The translation of asset allocations into ETFs is based on the interpretation of LazyPortfolioETF.com and may not exactly reflect the original intent of the portfolio creators. Content is for informational, educational, illustrative, and entertainment purposes only.

Resources & Extras

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Asset Allocations and ETFs

The compared portfolios have the following asset allocations.

Paul Merriman Ultimate Buy and Hold Strategy Portfolio

Weight (%)	ETF Ticker	Name
10.00	DLS	WisdomTree International SmallCp Div
10.00	EEM	iShares MSCI Emerging Markets
10.00	IJR	iShares Core S&P Small-Cap
10.00	IJS	iShares S&P Small-Cap 600 Value
10.00	SPY	SPDR S&P 500
10.00	VTV	Vanguard Value
10.00	VEA	Vanguard FTSE Developed Markets
10.00	SCZ	iShares MSCI EAFE Small-Cap
10.00	EFV	iShares MSCI EAFE Value
10.00	VNQ	Vanguard Real Estate

Rick Ferri Core Four Portfolio

Weight (%)	ETF Ticker	Name
48.00	VTI	Vanguard Total Stock Market
24.00	VEU	Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US
8.00	VNQ	Vanguard Real Estate
20.00	BND	Vanguard Total Bond Market

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Portfolio Returns as of Mar 31, 2025

Returns are calculated in USD, assuming:

no fees or capital gain taxes.
rebalancing: at every Jan 1^st.
dividend reinvestment, when applicable.

RETURN COMPARISON

Period: 1 January 1976 - 31 March 2025 (~49 years)

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		Return (%) as of Mar 31, 2025
		YTD (3M)	1M	6M	1Y	5Y	10Y	30Y	MAX (~49Y)
	Ultimate Buy and Hold Strategy Paul Merriman	1.56	-1.54	-3.05	5.76	13.40	6.81	8.44	11.47
	Core Four Rick Ferri	-0.11	-2.87	-1.68	7.19	12.16	7.78	8.29	10.27
Return over 1 year are annualized.

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Capital Growth as of Mar 31, 2025

Paul Merriman Ultimate Buy and Hold Strategy Portfolio: an investment of 1$, since April 1995, now would be worth 11.38$, with a total return of 1037.95% (8.44% annualized).

Rick Ferri Core Four Portfolio: an investment of 1$, since April 1995, now would be worth 10.90$, with a total return of 990.34% (8.29% annualized).

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Paul Merriman Ultimate Buy and Hold Strategy Portfolio: an investment of 1$, since January 1976, now would be worth 210.36$, with a total return of 20935.73% (11.47% annualized).

Rick Ferri Core Four Portfolio: an investment of 1$, since January 1976, now would be worth 123.38$, with a total return of 12237.62% (10.27% annualized).

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Portfolio Metrics as of Mar 31, 2025

The following metrics, updated as of 31 March 2025, provide an overview of performance and risk, with the best value in each row highlighted within the table.

METRIC COMPARISON

Period: 1 April 2024 - 31 March 2025 (1 year)

Period: 1 April 2020 - 31 March 2025 (5 years)

Period: 1 April 2015 - 31 March 2025 (10 years)

Period: 1 April 1995 - 31 March 2025 (30 years)

Period: 1 January 1976 - 31 March 2025 (~49 years)

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	Ultimate Buy and Hold Strategy	Core Four
Author	Paul Merriman	Rick Ferri
ASSET ALLOCATION
Stocks	100%	80%
Fixed Income	0%	20%
Commodities	0%	0%
PERFORMANCES
Annualized Return (%)	5.76	7.19
Infl. Adjusted Return (%)	3.29	4.69
DRAWDOWN
Deepest Drawdown Depth (%)	-4.57	-3.81
Start to Recovery (months)	4*	2
Longest Drawdown Depth (%)	-4.57	-3.23
Start to Recovery (months)	4*	4*
Longest Negative Period (months)	7*	6*
Drawdowns / Negative periods marked with * are in progress
RISK INDICATORS
Standard Deviation (%)	11.21	9.44
Sharpe Ratio	0.08	0.24
Sortino Ratio	0.10	0.31
Ulcer Index	2.22	1.75
Ratio: Return / Standard Deviation	0.51	0.76
Ratio: Return / Deepest Drawdown	1.26	1.89
Metrics calculated over the period 1 April 2024 - 31 March 2025

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	Ultimate Buy and Hold Strategy	Core Four
Author	Paul Merriman	Rick Ferri
ASSET ALLOCATION
Stocks	100%	80%
Fixed Income	0%	20%
Commodities	0%	0%
PERFORMANCES
Annualized Return (%)	13.40	12.16
Infl. Adjusted Return (%)	8.65	7.46
DRAWDOWN
Deepest Drawdown Depth (%)	-24.70	-23.46
Start to Recovery (months)	27	26
Longest Drawdown Depth (%)	-24.70	-23.46
Start to Recovery (months)	27	26
Longest Negative Period (months)	34	34
RISK INDICATORS
Standard Deviation (%)	16.16	13.72
Sharpe Ratio	0.68	0.71
Sortino Ratio	0.96	0.96
Ulcer Index	7.97	8.32
Ratio: Return / Standard Deviation	0.83	0.89
Ratio: Return / Deepest Drawdown	0.54	0.52
Metrics calculated over the period 1 April 2020 - 31 March 2025

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	Ultimate Buy and Hold Strategy	Core Four
Author	Paul Merriman	Rick Ferri
ASSET ALLOCATION
Stocks	100%	80%
Fixed Income	0%	20%
Commodities	0%	0%
PERFORMANCES
Annualized Return (%)	6.81	7.78
Infl. Adjusted Return (%)	3.62	4.56
DRAWDOWN
Deepest Drawdown Depth (%)	-27.54	-23.46
Start to Recovery (months)	11	26
Longest Drawdown Depth (%)	-24.70	-23.46
Start to Recovery (months)	27	26
Longest Negative Period (months)	44	34
RISK INDICATORS
Standard Deviation (%)	15.53	12.42
Sharpe Ratio	0.33	0.49
Sortino Ratio	0.44	0.65
Ulcer Index	7.85	6.59
Ratio: Return / Standard Deviation	0.44	0.63
Ratio: Return / Deepest Drawdown	0.25	0.33
Metrics calculated over the period 1 April 2015 - 31 March 2025

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	Ultimate Buy and Hold Strategy	Core Four
Author	Paul Merriman	Rick Ferri
ASSET ALLOCATION
Stocks	100%	80%
Fixed Income	0%	20%
Commodities	0%	0%
PERFORMANCES
Annualized Return (%)	8.44	8.29
Infl. Adjusted Return (%)	5.77	5.62
DRAWDOWN
Deepest Drawdown Depth (%)	-57.21	-44.44
Start to Recovery (months)	63	40
Longest Drawdown Depth (%)	-57.21	-27.90
Start to Recovery (months)	63	42
Longest Negative Period (months)	68	116
RISK INDICATORS
Standard Deviation (%)	15.76	12.26
Sharpe Ratio	0.39	0.49
Sortino Ratio	0.51	0.64
Ulcer Index	12.16	9.87
Ratio: Return / Standard Deviation	0.54	0.68
Ratio: Return / Deepest Drawdown	0.15	0.19
Metrics calculated over the period 1 April 1995 - 31 March 2025

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	Ultimate Buy and Hold Strategy	Core Four
Author	Paul Merriman	Rick Ferri
ASSET ALLOCATION
Stocks	100%	80%
Fixed Income	0%	20%
Commodities	0%	0%
PERFORMANCES
Annualized Return (%)	11.47	10.27
Infl. Adjusted Return (%)	7.58	6.42
DRAWDOWN
Deepest Drawdown Depth (%)	-57.21	-44.44
Start to Recovery (months)	63	40
Longest Drawdown Depth (%)	-57.21	-27.90
Start to Recovery (months)	63	42
Longest Negative Period (months)	68	116
RISK INDICATORS
Standard Deviation (%)	15.33	12.03
Sharpe Ratio	0.47	0.50
Sortino Ratio	0.62	0.66
Ulcer Index	10.17	8.13
Ratio: Return / Standard Deviation	0.75	0.85
Ratio: Return / Deepest Drawdown	0.20	0.23
Metrics calculated over the period 1 January 1976 - 31 March 2025

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Drawdowns

A drawdown refers to the decline in value from a relative peak value to a relative trough. A maximum drawdown is the maximum observed loss from a peak to a trough of a portfolio before a new peak is attained.

DRAWDOWN COMPARISON

Period: 1 April 1995 - 31 March 2025 (30 years)

Period: 1 January 1976 - 31 March 2025 (~49 years)

Chart Table

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Ultimate Buy and Hold Strategy			Core Four
Drawdown (%)	Recovery (#Months)	From To	Drawdown (%)	Recovery (#Months)	From To
-57.21	63	Nov 2007 Jan 2013
			-44.44	40	Nov 2007 Feb 2011
			-27.90	42	Sep 2000 Feb 2004
-27.54	11	Jan 2020 Nov 2020
-24.70	27	Jan 2022 Mar 2024
			-23.46	26	Jan 2022 Feb 2024
-20.46	13	Apr 1998 Apr 1999
-20.10	30	Feb 2001 Jul 2003
			-17.12	7	Jan 2020 Jul 2020
			-15.17	11	May 2011 Mar 2012
-15.11	22	Feb 2018 Nov 2019
			-12.55	5	Jul 1998 Nov 1998
-12.10	14	Jun 2015 Jul 2016
			-10.12	8	Sep 2018 Apr 2019
-8.65	5	Sep 2000 Jan 2001

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Ultimate Buy and Hold Strategy			Core Four
Drawdown (%)	Recovery (#Months)	From To	Drawdown (%)	Recovery (#Months)	From To
-57.21	63	Nov 2007 Jan 2013
			-44.44	40	Nov 2007 Feb 2011
			-27.90	42	Sep 2000 Feb 2004
-27.54	11	Jan 2020 Nov 2020
-25.26	17	Sep 1987 Jan 1989
-24.70	27	Jan 2022 Mar 2024
			-23.46	26	Jan 2022 Feb 2024
-21.87	17	Jan 1990 May 1991
-20.46	13	Apr 1998 Apr 1999
-20.10	30	Feb 2001 Jul 2003
-19.82	18	Jun 1981 Nov 1982
			-19.07	17	Sep 1987 Jan 1989
			-17.12	7	Jan 2020 Jul 2020
			-15.17	11	May 2011 Mar 2012
-15.11	22	Feb 2018 Nov 2019

Rolling Returns

By selecting the 'Rolling Period', the chart and data will update. To study a different date range, change the Simulation Settings.

You can explore the Rolling Returns for a single portfolio, or check the return differential, by switching on "Head To Head" toggle.

Rolling Returns Comparison

Annualized Rolling Returns Chart

Rolling Returns Chart - Inflation Adjusted

Time Period: 1 January 1976 - 31 March 2025 (~49 years)

Rolling Period:

Ultimate Buy and Hold Strategy
Core Four

Head To Head (Ptf 1 vs Ptf 2):

US Inflation Adjusted:

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Yearly Returns

For each year, the following table provides the return and intra-year drawdown. The highlighted returns represent the highest values for that specific year.

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	Ultimate Buy and Hold Strategy		Core Four
Year	Return (%)	Drawdown (%)	Return (%)	Drawdown (%)
2025	1.56	-1.54	-0.11	-2.87
2024	8.12	-4.57	13.43	-3.81
2023	15.12	-11.49	18.34	-8.99
2022	-15.37	-24.70	-17.83	-23.46
2021	19.37	-3.67	17.18	-3.72
2020	6.40	-27.54	13.93	-17.12
2019	23.62	-6.09	24.04	-4.20
2018	-11.86	-15.11	-6.41	-10.12
2017	21.78	-0.19	17.86	0.00
2016	12.36	-6.13	8.53	-4.54
2015	-1.21	-10.45	-0.67	-7.93
2014	3.86	-4.78	8.52	-2.80
2013	24.33	-3.16	19.22	-2.72
2012	18.52	-9.57	14.47	-6.30
2011	-6.03	-21.49	-0.63	-15.17
2010	17.95	-12.96	14.71	-9.66
2009	32.93	-22.58	26.02	-16.84
2008	-39.47	-43.68	-29.77	-33.12
2007	3.86	-8.69	6.37	-4.87
2006	25.26	-4.59	17.60	-2.92
2005	14.55	-4.36	8.20	-2.68
2004	24.50	-4.95	14.45	-3.58
2003	45.35	-4.40	28.09	-3.31
2002	-8.70	-19.82	-11.49	-17.29
2001	-4.24	-16.27	-7.43	-16.02
2000	-0.62	-8.65	-4.44	-9.70
1999	20.93	-3.33	18.14	-2.86
1998	4.55	-20.46	15.32	-12.55
1997	7.53	-6.22	18.08	-4.11
1996	14.79	-4.92	14.61	-3.35
1995	16.47	-2.82	22.74	-1.10
1994	-2.37	-7.70	1.06	-5.04
1993	30.62	-3.22	15.79	-3.96
1992	7.12	-3.87	3.42	-3.82
1991	32.16	-5.51	23.73	-4.00
1990	-15.66	-21.87	-8.36	-14.61
1989	27.73	-3.75	20.02	-2.01
1988	25.20	-2.71	17.02	-2.82
1987	6.29	-25.26	8.59	-19.07
1986	33.82	-4.97	26.76	-4.50
1985	40.18	-2.65	33.14	-2.36
1984	7.34	-6.12	6.41	-6.59
1983	26.91	-2.38	20.06	-2.93
1982	9.42	-16.41	17.46	-9.28
1981	-0.23	-10.99	-0.58	-10.04
1980	24.58	-12.52	24.04	-10.43
1979	19.34	-9.15	17.81	-7.52
1978	21.17	-9.46	12.62	-7.80
1977	13.48	-1.92	4.23	-3.09
1976	22.54	-3.46	19.80	-2.37

The first official book of

Mastering ETF Investing

Build wealth
with Lazy Portfolios and Passive Investing

Buy now
English book

Buy now
Italian book

Table of contents

Resources & Extras

Asset Allocations and ETFs

Portfolio Returns as of Mar 31, 2025

Capital Growth as of Mar 31, 2025

Portfolio Metrics as of Mar 31, 2025

Drawdowns

Rolling Returns

Yearly Returns