When holding the Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE) ETF, how long should you stay invested to have high probability to achieve a positive return?
Over the selected period (~40 years), the longest duration with a negative return was 188 months (from March 2005 to October 2020).
This indicates that, within the same timeframe, any rolling period of 189 months or more has consistently resulted in a positive return.
Understanding this metric is crucial as it highlights the importance of a safe investment horizon. Knowing the minimum duration required to likely see positive returns helps investors set realistic expectations and reinforces the strategy of staying invested through market cycles. This approach can mitigate the emotional reactions to short-term market fluctuations and enhance the likelihood of achieving financial goals.
Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE) ETF: Historical Returns
Previous vs subsequent Returns
Is there a correlation between past and future returns over all 10-year rolling periods?
The following chart illustrates the relationship between past returns (x-axis) and subsequent returns (y-axis).
Data points are aggregated to show occurrences, and you can zoom in by clicking or drawing over the desired area.
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As of Jan 31, 2025, the annualized return of the previous 10 years has been 5.69%.
Rolling Returns
A rolling return is a measure of investment performance that calculates the return of an investment over a set period of time, with the starting date rolling forward. This approach can provide a more accurate representation of the investment's historical performance and helps investors to evaluate the investment's consistency over time.
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Rolling Period Analysis
By selecting the 'Rolling Period', the chart and data will update. To study a different date range, change the simulation settings.
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Worst | Median | Best | Negative Periods |
---|---|---|---|
-52.34%
Apr 2019 - Mar 2020 |
+11.42% |
+109.61%
Nov 2020 - Oct 2021 |
29.79%
140 out of 470 |
-53.06%
Apr 2019 - Mar 2020 |
+8.62% |
+97.34%
Nov 2020 - Oct 2021 |
35.32%
166 out of 470 |
-32.97%
Oct 2018 - Sep 2020 |
+10.62% |
+85.17%
Nov 2020 - Oct 2022 |
25.76%
118 out of 458 |
-33.98%
Oct 2018 - Sep 2020 |
+7.23% |
+73.09%
Nov 2020 - Oct 2022 |
33.62%
154 out of 458 |
-21.66%
Apr 2017 - Mar 2020 |
+9.37% |
+50.75%
Oct 2020 - Sep 2023 |
23.77%
106 out of 446 |
-23.13%
Apr 2017 - Mar 2020 |
+6.47% |
+42.57%
Oct 2020 - Sep 2023 |
29.60%
132 out of 446 |
-15.73%
Nov 2016 - Oct 2020 |
+8.91% |
+40.22%
Apr 2020 - Mar 2024 |
20.74%
90 out of 434 |
-17.27%
Nov 2016 - Oct 2020 |
+5.66% |
+33.71%
Apr 2020 - Mar 2024 |
28.11%
122 out of 434 |
-14.48%
Apr 2015 - Mar 2020 |
+9.01% |
+31.68%
May 2003 - Apr 2008 |
14.69%
62 out of 422 |
-16.00%
Apr 2015 - Mar 2020 |
+6.11% |
+27.66%
May 2003 - Apr 2008 |
21.33%
90 out of 422 |
-13.90%
Apr 2014 - Mar 2020 |
+9.45% |
+24.29%
Jul 2002 - Jun 2008 |
12.68%
52 out of 410 |
-15.17%
Apr 2014 - Mar 2020 |
+6.27% |
+20.39%
Jul 2002 - Jun 2008 |
16.83%
69 out of 410 |
-11.31%
Nov 2013 - Oct 2020 |
+9.23% |
+18.31%
Jul 2001 - Jun 2008 |
8.04%
32 out of 398 |
-12.66%
Nov 2013 - Oct 2020 |
+6.09% |
+14.94%
Jul 2001 - Jun 2008 |
13.07%
52 out of 398 |
-7.73%
Apr 2012 - Mar 2020 |
+8.76% |
+19.30%
May 2003 - Apr 2011 |
9.07%
35 out of 386 |
-9.12%
Apr 2012 - Mar 2020 |
+6.00% |
+16.34%
May 2003 - Apr 2011 |
14.77%
57 out of 386 |
-7.83%
Apr 2011 - Mar 2020 |
+8.79% |
+17.08%
Oct 1988 - Sep 1997 |
5.88%
22 out of 374 |
-9.32%
Apr 2011 - Mar 2020 |
+6.04% |
+13.53%
Mar 1999 - Feb 2008 |
10.70%
40 out of 374 |
-4.03%
Nov 2010 - Oct 2020 |
+9.29% |
+16.76%
Dec 1987 - Nov 1997 |
4.70%
17 out of 362 |
-5.67%
Nov 2010 - Oct 2020 |
+6.59% |
+12.88%
Dec 1987 - Nov 1997 |
9.67%
35 out of 362 |
-2.90%
Nov 2009 - Oct 2020 |
+8.75% |
+17.21%
Aug 1986 - Jul 1997 |
3.14%
11 out of 350 |
-4.51%
Nov 2009 - Oct 2020 |
+6.15% |
+13.21%
Aug 1986 - Jul 1997 |
7.71%
27 out of 350 |
-4.94%
Apr 2008 - Mar 2020 |
+8.86% |
+16.08%
Apr 1986 - Mar 1998 |
2.96%
10 out of 338 |
-6.44%
Apr 2008 - Mar 2020 |
+6.31% |
+12.32%
Apr 1986 - Mar 1998 |
6.21%
21 out of 338 |
-4.66%
Nov 2007 - Oct 2020 |
+9.21% |
+14.78%
Jan 1985 - Dec 1997 |
5.52%
18 out of 326 |
-6.25%
Nov 2007 - Oct 2020 |
+6.53% |
+11.79%
Jan 1995 - Dec 2007 |
6.44%
21 out of 326 |
-2.04%
Nov 2006 - Oct 2020 |
+8.96% |
+14.06%
Jul 1994 - Jun 2008 |
3.50%
11 out of 314 |
-3.80%
Nov 2006 - Oct 2020 |
+6.42% |
+10.96%
Jul 1994 - Jun 2008 |
7.96%
25 out of 314 |
-1.30%
Oct 2005 - Sep 2020 |
+8.87% |
+14.34%
Jan 1993 - Dec 2007 |
0.99%
3 out of 302 |
-3.05%
Oct 2005 - Sep 2020 |
+6.15% |
+11.36%
Jan 1993 - Dec 2007 |
4.30%
13 out of 302 |
+1.24%
Nov 2004 - Oct 2020 |
+8.78% |
+14.53%
Jul 1992 - Jun 2008 |
0.00%
0 out of 290 |
-0.70%
Nov 2004 - Oct 2020 |
+6.20% |
+11.43%
Jul 1992 - Jun 2008 |
0.69%
2 out of 290 |
+3.50%
Nov 2003 - Oct 2020 |
+8.73% |
+13.56%
Jul 1991 - Jun 2008 |
0.00%
0 out of 278 |
+1.17%
Jan 2008 - Dec 2024 |
+5.88% |
+10.46%
Jul 1991 - Jun 2008 |
0.00%
0 out of 278 |
+2.38%
Apr 2002 - Mar 2020 |
+8.85% |
+13.10%
Feb 1988 - Jan 2006 |
0.00%
0 out of 266 |
+0.31%
Apr 2002 - Mar 2020 |
+6.06% |
+9.75%
Feb 1988 - Jan 2006 |
0.00%
0 out of 266 |
+2.03%
Apr 2001 - Mar 2020 |
+9.05% |
+13.58%
Jan 1989 - Dec 2007 |
0.00%
0 out of 254 |
-0.01%
Apr 2001 - Mar 2020 |
+6.42% |
+10.28%
Jan 1989 - Dec 2007 |
0.39%
1 out of 254 |
+1.85%
Nov 2000 - Oct 2020 |
+9.29% |
+13.96%
Jan 1988 - Dec 2007 |
0.00%
0 out of 242 |
-0.18%
Nov 2000 - Oct 2020 |
+6.57% |
+10.57%
Jan 1988 - Dec 2007 |
0.83%
2 out of 242 |
+4.24%
Oct 1995 - Sep 2020 |
+8.27% |
+12.46%
Apr 1986 - Mar 2011 |
0.00%
0 out of 182 |
+2.05%
Apr 1995 - Mar 2020 |
+5.70% |
+9.29%
Apr 1986 - Mar 2011 |
0.00%
0 out of 182 |
+4.69%
Apr 1990 - Mar 2020 |
+8.30% |
+10.69%
Jan 1985 - Dec 2014 |
0.00%
0 out of 122 |
+2.28%
Apr 1990 - Mar 2020 |
+5.62% |
+7.76%
Jan 1985 - Dec 2014 |
0.00%
0 out of 122 |
Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE) ETF: Historical Returns