Financial Select Sector SPDR (XLF): Rolling Returns

Time Period: from January 1999 to September 2024 (~26 years)
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When holding the Financial Select Sector SPDR (XLF) ETF, how long should you stay invested to have high probability to achieve a positive return?

Over the selected period (~26 years), the longest duration with a negative return was 185 months (from October 2000 to February 2016).

This indicates that, within the same timeframe, any rolling period of 186 months or more has consistently resulted in a positive return.

Understanding this metric is crucial as it highlights the importance of a safe investment horizon. Knowing the minimum duration required to likely see positive returns helps investors set realistic expectations and reinforces the strategy of staying invested through market cycles. This approach can mitigate the emotional reactions to short-term market fluctuations and enhance the likelihood of achieving financial goals.

Rolling Returns

A rolling return is a measure of investment performance that calculates the return of an investment over a set period of time, with the starting date rolling forward. This approach can provide a more accurate representation of the investment's historical performance and helps investors to evaluate the investment's consistency over time.

FINANCIAL SELECT SECTOR SPDR (XLF) ETF
Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Returns - Inflation Adjusted
Time Period: 1 October 2004 - 30 September 2024 (20 Years)
Time Period: 1 January 1999 - 30 September 2024 (~26 years)
US Inflation Adjusted:

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Rolling Period Analysis

By selecting the 'Rolling Period', the chart and data will update. To study a different date range, change the simulation settings.

FINANCIAL SELECT SECTOR SPDR (XLF) ETF
Rolling Returns Chart
Rolling Returns Chart - Inflation Adjusted
Time Period: 1 January 1999 - 30 September 2024 (~26 years)
US Inflation Adjusted:

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Swipe left to see all data
Worst Median Best Negative Periods
-69.38%
Mar 2008 - Feb 2009
+9.04% +97.52%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2010
36.58%
109 out of 298
-69.39%
Mar 2008 - Feb 2009
+5.46% +93.36%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2010
40.27%
120 out of 298
-52.49%
Mar 2007 - Feb 2009
+7.86% +51.34%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2011
25.52%
73 out of 286
-53.44%
Mar 2007 - Feb 2009
+5.28% +48.17%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2011
29.37%
84 out of 286
-36.60%
Mar 2006 - Feb 2009
+8.48% +27.40%
Oct 2011 - Sep 2014
20.80%
57 out of 274
-37.95%
Mar 2006 - Feb 2009
+5.09% +25.42%
Oct 2011 - Sep 2014
28.47%
78 out of 274
-26.81%
Mar 2005 - Feb 2009
+8.78% +25.44%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2013
22.90%
60 out of 262
-28.62%
Mar 2005 - Feb 2009
+5.73% +22.62%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2013
25.95%
68 out of 262
-21.87%
Mar 2004 - Feb 2009
+7.81% +25.42%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2014
24.00%
60 out of 250
-23.88%
Mar 2004 - Feb 2009
+4.88% +22.89%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2014
26.00%
65 out of 250
-13.41%
Mar 2003 - Feb 2009
+6.88% +23.46%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2015
28.15%
67 out of 238
-15.50%
Mar 2003 - Feb 2009
+4.10% +21.40%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2015
31.93%
76 out of 238
-13.79%
Mar 2002 - Feb 2009
+7.49% +18.37%
Oct 2011 - Sep 2018
35.40%
80 out of 226
-15.95%
Mar 2002 - Feb 2009
+5.34% +16.58%
Oct 2011 - Sep 2018
38.94%
88 out of 226
-12.78%
Mar 2001 - Feb 2009
+5.10% +20.91%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2017
42.99%
92 out of 214
-14.82%
Mar 2001 - Feb 2009
+2.76% +18.85%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2017
45.33%
97 out of 214
-8.53%
Apr 2000 - Mar 2009
+0.96% +20.76%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2018
48.51%
98 out of 202
-10.71%
Apr 2000 - Mar 2009
-1.88% +18.63%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2018
52.48%
106 out of 202
-9.00%
Mar 1999 - Feb 2009
+0.27% +17.72%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2019
45.26%
86 out of 190
-11.29%
Mar 1999 - Feb 2009
-1.82% +15.68%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2019
55.79%
106 out of 190
-5.84%
Oct 2000 - Sep 2011
+1.41% +16.23%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2020
26.97%
48 out of 178
-8.09%
Oct 2000 - Sep 2011
-0.50% +14.16%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2020
56.18%
100 out of 178
-3.24%
Dec 1999 - Nov 2011
+2.25% +16.91%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2021
21.69%
36 out of 166
-5.63%
Dec 1999 - Nov 2011
+0.29% +14.84%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2021
45.78%
76 out of 166
-2.46%
Jan 1999 - Dec 2011
+2.26% +17.25%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2022
14.94%
23 out of 154
-4.86%
Jan 1999 - Dec 2011
+0.23% +14.65%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2022
40.26%
62 out of 154
-0.53%
Jan 1999 - Dec 2012
+3.14% +15.47%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2023
4.23%
6 out of 142
-2.92%
Jan 1999 - Dec 2012
+1.10% +12.63%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2023
37.32%
53 out of 142
+0.04%
Feb 2001 - Jan 2016
+3.27% +15.44%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2024
0.00%
0 out of 130
-1.96%
Feb 2001 - Jan 2016
+1.11% +12.56%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2024
24.62%
32 out of 130
+0.81%
Oct 2000 - Sep 2016
+3.50% +8.70%
Oct 2008 - Sep 2024
0.00%
0 out of 118
-1.24%
Oct 2000 - Sep 2016
+1.12% +6.26%
Oct 2008 - Sep 2024
21.19%
25 out of 118
+1.17%
Mar 1999 - Feb 2016
+3.55% +5.45%
Nov 2004 - Oct 2021
0.00%
0 out of 106
-0.98%
Mar 1999 - Feb 2016
+1.28% +3.23%
Jan 2003 - Dec 2019
8.49%
9 out of 106
+1.77%
Apr 2002 - Mar 2020
+4.04% +6.17%
Apr 2003 - Mar 2021
0.00%
0 out of 94
-0.29%
Apr 2002 - Mar 2020
+1.68% +4.04%
Apr 2003 - Mar 2021
2.13%
2 out of 94
+1.88%
Apr 2001 - Mar 2020
+4.15% +6.59%
Apr 2003 - Mar 2022
0.00%
0 out of 82
-0.15%
Apr 2001 - Mar 2020
+1.71% +4.21%
Oct 2002 - Sep 2021
1.22%
1 out of 82
+2.17%
Nov 2000 - Oct 2020
+4.54% +5.92%
Mar 2003 - Feb 2023
0.00%
0 out of 70
+0.13%
Oct 2000 - Sep 2020
+2.18% +3.46%
Nov 2001 - Oct 2021
0.00%
0 out of 70
+4.57%
May 1999 - Apr 2024
+4.96% +5.85%
Oct 1999 - Sep 2024
0.00%
0 out of 10
+1.94%
May 1999 - Apr 2024
+2.33% +3.22%
Oct 1999 - Sep 2024
0.00%
0 out of 10
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