Industrial Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLI): Rolling Returns

Time Period: from January 1999 to September 2024 (~26 years)
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When holding the Industrial Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLI) ETF, how long should you stay invested to have high probability to achieve a positive return?

Over the selected period (~26 years), the longest duration with a negative return was 123 months (from January 1999 to March 2009).

This indicates that, within the same timeframe, any rolling period of 124 months or more has consistently resulted in a positive return.

Understanding this metric is crucial as it highlights the importance of a safe investment horizon. Knowing the minimum duration required to likely see positive returns helps investors set realistic expectations and reinforces the strategy of staying invested through market cycles. This approach can mitigate the emotional reactions to short-term market fluctuations and enhance the likelihood of achieving financial goals.

Rolling Returns

A rolling return is a measure of investment performance that calculates the return of an investment over a set period of time, with the starting date rolling forward. This approach can provide a more accurate representation of the investment's historical performance and helps investors to evaluate the investment's consistency over time.

INDUSTRIAL SELECT SECTOR SPDR FUND (XLI) ETF
Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Returns - Inflation Adjusted
Time Period: 1 October 2004 - 30 September 2024 (20 Years)
Time Period: 1 January 1999 - 30 September 2024 (~26 years)
US Inflation Adjusted:

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Rolling Period Analysis

By selecting the 'Rolling Period', the chart and data will update. To study a different date range, change the simulation settings.

INDUSTRIAL SELECT SECTOR SPDR FUND (XLI) ETF
Rolling Returns Chart
Rolling Returns Chart - Inflation Adjusted
Time Period: 1 January 1999 - 30 September 2024 (~26 years)
US Inflation Adjusted:

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Swipe left to see all data
Worst Median Best Negative Periods
-51.68%
Mar 2008 - Feb 2009
+11.18% +73.50%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2010
23.83%
71 out of 298
-51.69%
Mar 2008 - Feb 2009
+8.68% +69.85%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2010
30.20%
90 out of 298
-29.09%
Mar 2007 - Feb 2009
+9.88% +50.60%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2011
20.63%
59 out of 286
-30.52%
Mar 2007 - Feb 2009
+6.76% +47.45%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2011
25.87%
74 out of 286
-17.72%
Mar 2006 - Feb 2009
+10.75% +32.59%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2012
19.71%
54 out of 274
-19.47%
Mar 2006 - Feb 2009
+8.31% +29.50%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2012
22.99%
63 out of 274
-11.92%
Mar 2005 - Feb 2009
+10.25% +27.29%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2013
17.56%
46 out of 262
-14.10%
Mar 2005 - Feb 2009
+7.25% +24.43%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2013
25.57%
67 out of 262
-7.01%
Mar 2004 - Feb 2009
+9.02% +27.73%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2014
6.80%
17 out of 250
-9.41%
Mar 2004 - Feb 2009
+6.13% +25.15%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2014
21.20%
53 out of 250
-0.23%
Mar 2003 - Feb 2009
+8.46% +25.07%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2015
0.42%
1 out of 238
-2.64%
Mar 2003 - Feb 2009
+5.73% +22.98%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2015
9.24%
22 out of 238
-4.55%
Mar 2002 - Feb 2009
+8.17% +19.81%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2016
3.10%
7 out of 226
-6.95%
Mar 2002 - Feb 2009
+6.23% +17.95%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2016
4.42%
10 out of 226
-5.07%
Mar 2001 - Feb 2009
+8.54% +20.95%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2017
4.67%
10 out of 214
-7.29%
Mar 2001 - Feb 2009
+6.18% +18.89%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2017
7.94%
17 out of 214
-3.41%
Apr 2000 - Mar 2009
+8.59% +20.69%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2018
5.45%
11 out of 202
-5.72%
Apr 2000 - Mar 2009
+6.40% +18.57%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2018
10.89%
22 out of 202
-2.07%
Mar 1999 - Feb 2009
+8.92% +18.62%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2019
3.68%
7 out of 190
-4.55%
Mar 1999 - Feb 2009
+6.60% +16.56%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2019
11.05%
21 out of 190
+0.90%
Jul 1999 - Jun 2010
+9.21% +16.54%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2020
0.00%
0 out of 178
-1.53%
Jul 1999 - Jun 2010
+7.20% +14.47%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2020
3.93%
7 out of 178
+1.86%
Oct 1999 - Sep 2011
+8.82% +17.36%
Apr 2009 - Mar 2021
0.00%
0 out of 166
-0.65%
Oct 1999 - Sep 2011
+6.78% +15.27%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2021
0.60%
1 out of 166
+3.15%
Jul 1999 - Jun 2012
+9.23% +16.91%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2022
0.00%
0 out of 154
+0.64%
Jul 1999 - Jun 2012
+7.11% +14.32%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2022
0.00%
0 out of 154
+4.41%
Jul 1999 - Jun 2013
+9.19% +15.84%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2023
0.00%
0 out of 142
+1.93%
Jul 1999 - Jun 2013
+7.08% +12.99%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2023
0.00%
0 out of 142
+5.10%
Feb 2001 - Jan 2016
+8.87% +16.24%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2024
0.00%
0 out of 130
+2.98%
Sep 2000 - Aug 2015
+6.72% +13.33%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2024
0.00%
0 out of 130
+5.39%
Oct 1999 - Sep 2015
+8.84% +11.91%
Oct 2008 - Sep 2024
0.00%
0 out of 118
+3.13%
Oct 1999 - Sep 2015
+6.40% +9.40%
Oct 2008 - Sep 2024
0.00%
0 out of 118
+5.67%
Jul 1999 - Jun 2016
+8.97% +10.90%
Feb 2003 - Jan 2020
0.00%
0 out of 106
+3.40%
Jul 1999 - Jun 2016
+6.49% +8.65%
Feb 2003 - Jan 2020
0.00%
0 out of 106
+6.09%
Jan 2001 - Dec 2018
+8.86% +11.64%
Apr 2003 - Mar 2021
0.00%
0 out of 94
+3.93%
Jan 2001 - Dec 2018
+6.36% +9.40%
Apr 2003 - Mar 2021
0.00%
0 out of 94
+6.12%
Jan 2000 - Dec 2018
+8.95% +11.34%
Apr 2003 - Mar 2022
0.00%
0 out of 82
+3.89%
Jan 2000 - Dec 2018
+6.34% +8.75%
Apr 2003 - Mar 2022
0.00%
0 out of 82
+5.55%
Apr 2000 - Mar 2020
+8.89% +10.77%
Mar 2003 - Feb 2023
0.00%
0 out of 70
+3.40%
Apr 2000 - Mar 2020
+6.37% +8.05%
Mar 2003 - Feb 2023
0.00%
0 out of 70
+7.73%
Jul 1999 - Jun 2024
+8.18% +8.63%
Apr 1999 - Mar 2024
0.00%
0 out of 10
+5.03%
Jul 1999 - Jun 2024
+5.48% +5.89%
Apr 1999 - Mar 2024
0.00%
0 out of 10
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