Invesco DB Commodity Tracking (DBC): Historical Returns

Simulation Settings
Category: Commodities
Period: January 1871 - October 2024 (~154 years)
Consolidated Returns as of 31 October 2024
Live Update: Nov 20 2024
Currency: USD
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1.00$
Initial Capital
November 1994
3.35$
Final Capital
October 2024
4.11%
Yearly Return
18.77
Std Deviation
-74.54%
Max Drawdown
196months
Recovery Period
1.00$
Initial Capital
January 1871
51.61$
Final Capital
October 2024
2.60%
Yearly Return
12.42
Std Deviation
-74.54%
Max Drawdown
196months
Recovery Period
Live update: November 2024 (USD)
-0.04%
1 day - Nov 20 2024
-0.93%
Month - November 2024

The Invesco DB Commodity Tracking (DBC) ETF covers to the following investment themes:

  • Asset Class: Commodity
  • Commodity: Broad Diversified

As of October 2024, in the previous 30 Years, the Invesco DB Commodity Tracking (DBC) ETF obtained a 4.11% compound annual return, with a 18.77% standard deviation. It suffered a maximum drawdown of -74.54% that required 196 months to be recovered.

Disclaimer: The simulations on this website are provided in good faith but should NOT be taken as investment advice. We are not liable for any errors or actions based on this information. The authors of the website are not affiliated with the ETFs/Assets issuers. Content is for informational, educational, illustrative and entertainment purposes only.

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The Invesco DB Commodity Tracking (DBC) ETF is part of the following Lazy Portfolios:

Portfolio Name Author DBC Weight Currency
Five Asset Roger Gibson 20.00% USD
Rob Arnott Portfolio Rob Arnott 10.00% USD
All Weather Portfolio Ray Dalio 7.50% USD
All Weather Portfolio with Bitcoin Ray Dalio 6.50% USD
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Investment Returns as of Oct 31, 2024

The Invesco DB Commodity Tracking (DBC) ETF guaranteed the following returns.

Returns are calculated in USD, assuming:
  • no fees or capital gain taxes.
  • dividend reinvestment, when applicable.
  • the actual US Inflation rates.
INVESCO DB COMMODITY TRACKING (DBC) ETF
1 January 1871 - 31 October 2024 (~154 years)
Live Update: Nov 20 2024
Swipe left to see all data
  Chg (%) Return (%) Return (%) as of Oct 31, 2024
  1 Day Time ET(*) Nov 2024 YTD
(10M)
1M 6M 1Y 5Y 10Y 30Y MAX
(~154Y)
Investment Return -0.04 -0.93 2.50 1.44 -3.21 -3.30 9.58 0.95 4.11 2.60
US Inflation Adjusted Return 0.31 1.19 -3.90 -5.73 5.20 -1.87 1.55 0.47
Returns over 1 year are annualized
(*) Eastern Time (ET - America/New York)
US Inflation is updated to Oct 2024. Inflation (annualized) is 1Y: 2.58% , 5Y: 4.17% , 10Y: 2.88% , 30Y: 2.52%

In 2023, the Invesco DB Commodity Tracking (DBC) ETF granted a 4.42% dividend yield. If you are interested in getting periodic income, please refer to the Invesco DB Commodity Tracking (DBC) ETF: Dividend Yield page.

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Capital Growth as of Oct 31, 2024

An investment of 1$, from November 1994 to October 2024, would be worth 3.35$, with a total return of 234.62% (4.11% annualized).

The Inflation Adjusted Capital would be 1.58$, with a net total return of 58.48% (1.55% annualized).

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An investment of 1$, from January 1871 to October 2024, would be worth 51.61$, with a total return of 5060.82% (2.60% annualized).

The Inflation Adjusted Capital would be 2.04$, with a net total return of 104.15% (0.47% annualized).

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Investment Metrics as of Oct 31, 2024

Metrics of Invesco DB Commodity Tracking (DBC) ETF, updated as of 31 October 2024, provide a comprehensive overview of the portfolio's performance and risk characteristics.

These metrics include detailed data on returns, volatility, drawdowns and other key performance indicators. By examining them, you can gain insights into how the portfolio has performed over various time periods and understand its risk profile.

Metrics are calculated based on monthly returns, assuming:
  • no fees or capital gain taxes.
  • dividend reinvestment, when applicable.
  • the actual US Inflation rates.
INVESCO DB COMMODITY TRACKING (DBC) ETF
Advanced Metrics
1 January 1871 - 31 October 2024 (~154 years)
Swipe left to see all data
Metrics as of Oct 31, 2024
YTD
(10M)
1M 3M 6M 1Y 3Y 5Y 10Y 20Y 30Y MAX
(~154Y)
Investment Return (%)
2.50 1.44 0.04 -3.21 -3.30 3.75 9.58 0.95 0.71 4.11 2.60
Growth of 1$ 1.02 1.01 1.00 0.97 0.97 1.12 1.58 1.10 1.15 3.35 51.61
Infl. Adjusted Return (%)
0.31 1.19 -0.56 -3.90 -5.73 -0.72 5.20 -1.87 -1.79 1.55 0.47
US Inflation (%) 2.17 0.24 0.61 0.72 2.58 4.50 4.17 2.88 2.55 2.52 2.12
Returns / Inflation rates over 1 year are annualized.
DRAWDOWN
Inflation Adjusted:
Inflation Adjusted:
Current 1Y 3Y 5Y 10Y 20Y 30Y MAX
Deepest Drawdown Depth (%) -44.30 -5.87 -22.97 -31.66 -49.73 -74.54 -74.54 -74.54
Start to Recovery (# months)
196* 12* 29* 14 87 196* 196* 196*
Start (yyyy mm) 2023 11 2022 06 2020 01 2014 11 2008 07 2008 07 2008 07
Start to Bottom (# months) 4 12 4 66 142 142 142
Bottom (yyyy mm) 2024 02 2023 05 2020 04 2020 04 2020 04 2020 04 2020 04
Bottom to End (# months) 8 17 10 21 54 54 54
End (yyyy mm) - - 2021 02 2022 01 - - -
Longest Drawdown Depth (%)
same

same
-22.97
same

same

same
-62.15
Start to Recovery (# months)
29* 660
Start (yyyy mm) 2023 11 2022 06 2022 06 2014 11 2008 07 2008 07 1918 01
Start to Bottom (# months) 4 12 12 66 142 142 169
Bottom (yyyy mm) 2024 02 2023 05 2023 05 2020 04 2020 04 2020 04 1932 01
Bottom to End (# months) 8 17 17 21 54 54 491
End (yyyy mm) - - - 2022 01 - - 1972 12
Longest negative period (# months)
12* 32* 32* 86 229 281 1214
Start (yyyy mm) 2023 11 2022 03 2022 03 2014 11 2005 09 1996 12 1871 02
End (yyyy mm) 2024 10 2024 10 2024 10 2021 12 2024 09 2020 04 1972 03
Annualized Return (%) -3.30 -0.04 -0.04 -0.59 -0.05 -0.18 -0.01
Drawdowns / Negative periods marked with * are in progress
Deepest Drawdown Depth (%) -61.60 -7.34 -26.02 -30.99 -53.40 -78.38 -78.38 -86.36
Start to Recovery (# months)
196* 12* 29* 14 90 196* 196* 1128
Start (yyyy mm) 2023 11 2022 06 2020 01 2014 11 2008 07 2008 07 1896 10
Start to Bottom (# months) 10 12 4 66 142 142 884
Bottom (yyyy mm) 2024 08 2023 05 2020 04 2020 04 2020 04 2020 04 1970 05
Bottom to End (# months) 2 17 10 24 54 54 244
End (yyyy mm) - - 2021 02 2022 04 - - 1990 09
Longest Drawdown Depth (%)
same

same
-26.02
same

same

same

same
Start to Recovery (# months)
29*
Start (yyyy mm) 2023 11 2022 06 2022 06 2014 11 2008 07 2008 07 1896 10
Start to Bottom (# months) 10 12 12 66 142 142 884
Bottom (yyyy mm) 2024 08 2023 05 2023 05 2020 04 2020 04 2020 04 1970 05
Bottom to End (# months) 2 17 17 24 54 54 244
End (yyyy mm) - - - 2022 04 - - 1990 09
Longest negative period (# months)
12* 36* 36* 120* 240* 307 1758
Start (yyyy mm) 2023 11 2021 11 2021 11 2014 11 2004 11 1994 11 1873 11
End (yyyy mm) 2024 10 2024 10 2024 10 2024 10 2024 10 2020 05 2020 04
Annualized Return (%) -5.73 -0.72 -0.72 -1.87 -1.79 -0.14 0.00
Drawdowns / Negative periods marked with * are in progress
RISK INDICATORS
1Y 3Y 5Y 10Y 20Y 30Y MAX
Standard Deviation (%) 7.58 15.44 18.39 17.19 18.54 18.77 12.42
Sharpe Ratio -1.14 0.01 0.40 -0.03 -0.04 0.10 -0.11
Sortino Ratio -1.71 0.02 0.53 -0.04 -0.05 0.13 -0.17
Ulcer Index 3.59 14.18 14.25 26.39 47.61 40.35 33.48
Ratio: Return / Standard Deviation -0.44 0.24 0.52 0.06 0.04 0.22 0.21
Ratio: Return / Deepest Drawdown -0.56 0.16 0.30 0.02 0.01 0.06 0.03
Positive Months (%)
41.66 47.22 53.33 51.66 50.00 52.77 81.41
Positive Months 5 17 32 62 120 190 1503
Negative Months 7 19 28 58 120 170 343
LONG TERM RETURNS
Inflation Adjusted:
Inflation Adjusted:
1Y 3Y 5Y 10Y 20Y 30Y MAX
Best 10 Years Return (%) - Annualized 0.95 1.62 18.17 21.88
Worst 10 Years Return (%) - Annualized -8.73 -8.73 -8.73
Best 10 Years Return (%) - Annualized -1.87 -0.81 14.79 14.79
Worst 10 Years Return (%) - Annualized -10.03 -10.03 -10.83
TIMEFRAMES
Inflation Adjusted:
Inflation Adjusted:
1M 3M 6M 1Y 3Y 5Y 10Y 20Y 30Y MAX
··· As of Oct 2024 - Over the previous 30Y
Best Rolling Return (%) - Annualized 78.58 31.81 25.40 18.17 5.72 4.11
Worst Rolling Return (%) - Annualized -48.67 -23.43 -15.57 -8.73 0.06
Positive Periods (%) 58.1 62.7 66.7 52.2 100.0 100.0
Best Rolling Return (%) - Annualized 70.18 28.44 22.29 14.79 3.30 1.55
Worst Rolling Return (%) - Annualized -48.03 -24.08 -16.70 -10.03 -1.94
Positive Periods (%) 53.8 55.6 58.4 49.3 52.8 100.0
95% VaR - Value at Risk (%) - Cumulative
8.43 13.98 18.92 34.41 42.28 46.03 46.52 0.00
95% CVaR - Conditional Value at Risk (%) 10.68 17.88 24.43 39.97 47.46 51.07 53.19 0.00
99% VaR - Value at Risk (%) - Cumulative
12.12 20.37 27.96 46.20 51.91 55.21 56.61 0.00
99% CVaR - Conditional Value at Risk (%) 14.47 24.44 33.72 47.57 54.07 56.77 59.88 0.00
Short term VaRs: analytical | 1+ year VaRs: historical data
Safe Withdrawal Rate (%) 57.78 18.85 11.57 4.46 3.85 5.15
Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (%) --- --- --- --- --- 1.90
% based on initial capital, inflation-adj. monthly withdrawals afterwards | Credits: BestRetirementPortfolio.com
··· All available data (Jan 1871 - Oct 2024)
Best Rolling Return (%) - Annualized 106.86 58.15 38.19 21.88 17.34 12.81
Worst Rolling Return (%) - Annualized -48.67 -23.43 -15.57 -8.73 -3.16 -1.80
Positive Periods (%) 55.5 55.9 59.6 55.9 63.8 62.8
Best Rolling Return (%) - Annualized 95.63 46.93 29.70 14.79 10.40 7.53
Worst Rolling Return (%) - Annualized -48.03 -27.11 -23.16 -10.83 -6.00 -4.20
Positive Periods (%) 49.0 46.5 45.2 48.6 53.2 48.5
95% VaR - Value at Risk (%) - Cumulative
5.62 9.38 12.78 16.40 25.74 31.28 38.17 36.94 30.76
95% CVaR - Conditional Value at Risk (%) 7.11 11.96 16.43 27.29 38.18 44.16 44.89 41.87 37.10
99% VaR - Value at Risk (%) - Cumulative
8.07 13.62 18.77 33.85 47.18 51.05 48.46 45.88 41.25
99% CVaR - Conditional Value at Risk (%) 9.62 16.31 22.58 39.65 48.87 52.42 51.78 47.05 41.85
Short term VaRs: analytical | 1+ year VaRs: historical data
Safe Withdrawal Rate (%) 57.78 18.85 9.86 4.20 1.85 1.26
Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (%) --- --- --- --- --- ---
% based on initial capital, inflation-adj. monthly withdrawals afterwards | Credits: BestRetirementPortfolio.com
Terms and Definitions
  • Annualized Portfolio Return: it's the annualized geometric mean return of the portfolio.
  • Deepest/Longest Drawdown: a drawdown refers to the decline in value from a relative peak value to a relative trough. The deepest (or maximum) drawdown is the maximum observed loss from a peak to a trough of a portfolio before a new peak is attained. The longest drawdown is the period observed from a peak to the subsequent peak with the greatest duration.
  • Longest negative period: it's the maximum period for which an overall negative return has been observed.
  • Standard Deviation: it's a measure of the dispersion of returns around the mean.
  • Sharpe Ratio: it's a measure of risk-adjusted performance of the portfolio. It's calculated by dividing the excess return of the portfolio over the risk-free rate by the portfolio standard deviation. The risk-free rate here considered is the 1-3 Mth T-Bill return.
  • Sortino Ratio: another measure of risk-adjusted performance of the portfolio. It's a modification of the Sharpe Ratio (same formula but the denominator is the portfolio downside standard deviation).
  • Ulcer Index: it's a measure of downside risk that quantifies the depth and duration of drawdowns in an investment portfolio.
  • Best/Worst 10Y returns: the best and the worst 10-year return over a time frame.
  • Rolling Returns: N-year returns over a time frame, calculated over all the available data source (best, worst, % of positive returns). Each rolling period, longer than the longest negative period, yielded a non-negative minimum return.
  • Value at Risk (VaR): it's an evaluation of a cumulative worst-case loss (in absolute value), associated with a probability (95%-99%) and a time horizon. For short term, it's calculated based on the expected return and standard deviation, assuming a normal distribution of monthly returns. For long term is retrieved by the historical rolling return data.
  • Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR): it represents the average expected loss if that worst-case threshold (95%-99%) is ever crossed.
  • Safe Withdrawal Rate (SWR): it's the percentage of the initial portfolio balance that can be withdrawn at the beginning of each month with inflation adjustment, without the portfolio running out of money in any case (money amount withdrawal).
    For instance: Your initial invested capital is 100.000$; withdrawal rate (annualized) is 4%. This means that, in the first month, you will withdraw 100.000 * 4% * 1/12 = 333.33$. The second month, you’ll withdraw 333.33$ plus the inflation monthly rate. You’ll continue adjusting your withdraw monthly for inflation.
  • Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (PWR): it's the percentage of the initial portfolio balance that can be withdrawn at the beginning of each month with inflation adjustment, preserving the original invested capital, adjusted for inflation too.
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Correlations as of Oct 31, 2024

Correlation measures to what degree the returns of two assets move in relation to each other. It is a statistical measure that describes the extent to which the returns of one asset are related to the returns of another asset.

The following table shows the monthly correlations of Invesco DB Commodity Tracking (DBC) ETF vs the main Asset Classes, over different timeframes. Columns are sortable (click on table header to sort).

INVESCO DB COMMODITY TRACKING (DBC) ETF
Monthly correlations as of 31 October 2024
Swipe left to see all data
Correlation vs DBC
Asset Class 1 Year 5 Years 10 Years 30 Years
VTI
US Total Stock Market -0.49 0.42 0.41 0.34
SPY
US Large Cap Blend -0.44 0.41 0.40 0.32
IJH
US Mid Cap Blend -0.47 0.49 0.45 0.39
IJR
US Small Cap Blend -0.61 0.48 0.44 0.36
VNQ
US REITs -0.70 0.40 0.23 0.25
QQQ
US Technology -0.41 0.21 0.25 0.23
PFF
US Preferred Stocks -0.46 0.30 0.24 0.22
EFA
EAFE Stocks -0.51 0.50 0.47 0.43
VT
World All Countries -0.52 0.48 0.47 0.37
EEM
Emerging Markets -0.36 0.47 0.47 0.41
BND
US Total Bond Market -0.57 -0.06 -0.12 0.02
TLT
US Long Term Treasuries -0.62 -0.31 -0.36 -0.18
BIL
US Cash -0.61 -0.29 -0.12 0.02
TIP
US TIPS -0.50 0.12 0.08 0.25
LQD
US Invest. Grade Bonds -0.53 0.11 0.07 0.12
HYG
US High Yield Bonds -0.61 0.38 0.43 0.32
CWB
US Convertible Bonds -0.52 0.41 0.42 0.38
BNDX
International Bonds -0.55 -0.08 -0.16 0.07
EMB
Emerg. Market Bonds -0.58 0.35 0.31 0.26
GLD
Gold 0.41 0.06 0.08 0.30
Terms and Definitions
Correlation values range between -1 and +1
  • A correlation of +1 indicates that the returns of the two assets move in perfect synchrony; when one asset's returns go up, the other asset's returns also go up by the same percentage, and vice versa. This perfect positive correlation implies that the assets perform similarly in different market conditions.
  • A correlation of -1 indicates a perfect inverse relationship between the returns of the two assets. When one asset's returns go up, the other asset's returns go down by the same percentage. This perfect negative correlation suggests that the assets move in opposite directions, providing a diversification benefit by reducing overall portfolio risk.
  • A correlation of 0 means that there is no linear relationship between the returns of the two assets. The returns of one asset do not predict the returns of the other.
Learn about historical correlations here: see how the main asset classes relate to each other.

Drawdowns

A drawdown refers to the decline in value from a relative peak value to a relative trough. A maximum drawdown is the maximum observed loss from a peak to a trough of a portfolio before a new peak is attained.

INVESCO DB COMMODITY TRACKING (DBC) ETF
Drawdown periods
Drawdown periods - Inflation Adjusted
1 November 1994 - 31 October 2024 (30 Years)
1 January 1871 - 31 October 2024 (~154 years)
Inflation Adjusted:

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Rolling Returns

For a detailed rolling return analysis, click here
Invesco DB Commodity Tracking (DBC) ETF: Rolling Returns

A rolling return is a measure of investment performance that calculates the return of an investment over a set period of time, with the starting date rolling forward. This approach can provide a more accurate representation of the investment's historical performance and helps investors to evaluate the investment's consistency over time.

INVESCO DB COMMODITY TRACKING (DBC) ETF
Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Returns - Inflation Adjusted
1 November 1994 - 31 October 2024 (30 Years)
1 January 1871 - 31 October 2024 (~154 years)
Inflation Adjusted:

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The values shown for the rolling periods represent key statistical points: the minimum, maximum, median, and the 15th and 85th percentiles. These percentiles give insight into the distribution of the data, indicating the range within which the central 70% of the values lie, while the median represents the middle value.

Seasonality

In which months is it better to invest in Invesco DB Commodity Tracking (DBC) ETF?

Both the Average Return and the Gain Frequency (Win %) are useful to get an idea of what happened in the past. They are retrieved considering the time period from January 1871 to October 2024.

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For further information about the seasonality, check the Asset Class Seasonality page.

Monthly Returns

This section provides a visual/tabular representation of the performance variability in the Invesco DB Commodity Tracking (DBC) ETF over time. It illustrates the distribution of monthly returns, showcasing the range and frequency of positive and negative returns.

INVESCO DB COMMODITY TRACKING (DBC) ETF
Monthly Returns Distribution
1 November 1994 - 31 October 2024 (30 Years)
1 January 1871 - 31 October 2024 (~154 years)
190 Positive Months (53%) - 170 Negative Months (47%)
1503 Positive Months (81%) - 343 Negative Months (19%)

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Methodology

Returns, up to December 2006, have been derived using the historical series of equivalent ETFs / Assets.
You can find additional information on extended Data Sources here.

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