iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond (SHY): Historical Returns

Simulation Settings

Category: Fixed Income

Period: January 1871 - October 2024 (~154 years)
Consolidated Returns as of 31 October 2024
Live Update: Nov 15 2024

Currency: USD

(Change Settings)

1.00$
Initial Capital
November 1994
2.53$
Final Capital
October 2024
3.14%
Yearly Return
1.81
Std Deviation
-5.36%
Max Drawdown
37months
Recovery Period

1.00$
Initial Capital
January 1871
782.71$
Final Capital
October 2024
4.43%
Yearly Return
3.46
Std Deviation
-8.52%
Max Drawdown
13months
Recovery Period

Live update: November 2024 (USD)

0.11%

1 day - Nov 15 2024

-0.07%

Month - November 2024

The iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond (SHY) ETF covers to the following investment themes:

Asset Class: Bond
Region: North America
Country: U.S.
Bond - Duration: Short Term

As of October 2024, in the previous 30 Years, the iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond (SHY) ETF obtained a 3.14% compound annual return, with a 1.81% standard deviation. It suffered a maximum drawdown of -5.36% that required 37 months to be recovered.

Disclaimer: The simulations on this website are provided in good faith but should NOT be taken as investment advice. We are not liable for any errors or actions based on this information. The authors of the website are not affiliated with the ETFs/Assets issuers. Content is for informational, educational, illustrative and entertainment purposes only.

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The iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond (SHY) ETF is part of the following Lazy Portfolios:

Portfolio Name	Author	SHY Weight▾	Currency
Short Term Treasury		100.00%	USD
Robo Advisor 0	Betterment	80.00%	USD
Robo Advisor 10	Betterment	61.40%	USD
Sheltered Sam 0/100	Bill Bernstein	60.00%	USD
Sheltered Sam 10/90	Bill Bernstein	54.00%	USD
Sheltered Sam 20/80	Bill Bernstein	48.00%	USD
Robo Advisor 20	Betterment	42.80%	USD
Sheltered Sam 30/70	Bill Bernstein	42.00%	USD
Coward's Portfolio	Bill Bernstein	40.00%	USD
Big Rocks Portfolio	Larry Swedroe	40.00%	USD
Sheltered Sam 40/60	Bill Bernstein	36.00%	USD
Andrew Tobias Portfolio	Andrew Tobias	33.33%	USD
Ideal Index	Frank Armstrong	30.00%	USD
Sheltered Sam 50/50	Bill Bernstein	30.00%	USD
No Brainer Portfolio	Bill Bernstein	25.00%	USD
Paul Boyer Portfolio	Paul Boyer	25.00%	USD
Sheltered Sam 60/40	Bill Bernstein	24.00%	USD
Golden Butterfly	Tyler	20.00%	USD
Dynamic 40/60 Income		20.00%	USD
Dynamic 60/40 Income		20.00%	USD
Golden Butterfly with Bitcoin	Tyler	20.00%	USD
Sheltered Sam 70/30	Bill Bernstein	18.00%	USD
Ultimate Buy&Hold	FundAdvice	12.00%	USD
Sheltered Sam 80/20	Bill Bernstein	12.00%	USD
Warren Buffett Portfolio	Warren Buffett	10.00%	USD
In Saecula Saeculorum	Fulvio Marchese	10.00%	USD
Sheltered Sam 90/10	Bill Bernstein	6.00%	USD

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Investment Returns as of Oct 31, 2024

The iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond (SHY) ETF guaranteed the following returns.

Returns are calculated in USD, assuming:

no fees or capital gain taxes.
dividend reinvestment, when applicable.
the actual US Inflation rates.

ISHARES 1-3 YEAR TREASURY BOND (SHY) ETF

1 January 1871 - 31 October 2024 (~154 years)

Live Update: Nov 15 2024

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	Chg (%)		Return (%)	Return (%) as of Oct 31, 2024
	1 Day	*Time ET^()**	Nov 2024	YTD (10M)	1M	6M	1Y	5Y	10Y	30Y	MAX (~154Y)
Investment Return	0.11		-0.07	3.35	-0.62	3.53	5.59	1.13	1.17	3.14	4.43
US Inflation Adjusted Return				1.15	-0.87	2.79	2.94	-2.92	-1.67	0.60	2.26
Returns over 1 year are annualized
(*) Eastern Time (ET - America/New York)
US Inflation is updated to Oct 2024. Inflation (annualized) is 1Y: 2.58% , 5Y: 4.17% , 10Y: 2.88% , 30Y: 2.52%

In 2023, the iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond (SHY) ETF granted a 3.06% dividend yield. If you are interested in getting periodic income, please refer to the iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond (SHY) ETF: Dividend Yield page.

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Capital Growth as of Oct 31, 2024

An investment of 1$, from November 1994 to October 2024, would be worth 2.53$, with a total return of 152.87% (3.14% annualized).

The Inflation Adjusted Capital would be 1.20$, with a net total return of 19.76% (0.60% annualized).

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An investment of 1$, from January 1871 to October 2024, would be worth 782.71$, with a total return of 78170.51% (4.43% annualized).

The Inflation Adjusted Capital would be 30.96$, with a net total return of 2996.17% (2.26% annualized).

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Investment Metrics as of Oct 31, 2024

Metrics of iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond (SHY) ETF, updated as of 31 October 2024, provide a comprehensive overview of the portfolio's performance and risk characteristics.

These metrics include detailed data on returns, volatility, drawdowns and other key performance indicators. By examining them, you can gain insights into how the portfolio has performed over various time periods and understand its risk profile.

Metrics are calculated based on monthly returns, assuming:

no fees or capital gain taxes.
dividend reinvestment, when applicable.
the actual US Inflation rates.

ISHARES 1-3 YEAR TREASURY BOND (SHY) ETF

Advanced Metrics

1 January 1871 - 31 October 2024 (~154 years)

Swipe left to see all data

	Metrics as of Oct 31, 2024
	YTD (10M)	1M	3M	6M	1Y	3Y	5Y	10Y	20Y	30Y	MAX (~154Y)
Investment Return (%)	3.35	-0.62	1.04	3.53	5.59	0.99	1.13	1.17	1.78	3.14	4.43
Growth of 1$	1.03	0.99	1.01	1.04	1.06	1.03	1.06	1.12	1.42	2.53	782.71
Infl. Adjusted Return (%)	1.15	-0.87	0.42	2.79	2.94	-3.36	-2.92	-1.67	-0.75	0.60	2.26
US Inflation (%)	2.17	0.24	0.61	0.72	2.58	4.50	4.17	2.88	2.55	2.52	2.12
Returns / Inflation rates over 1 year are annualized.
DRAWDOWN Inflation Adjusted: Inflation Adjusted:				Current	1Y	3Y	5Y	10Y	20Y	30Y	MAX
Deepest Drawdown Depth (%)				-0.62	-0.62	-4.91	-5.36	-5.36	-5.36	-5.36	-8.52
Start to Recovery (# months)				1*	1*	31	37	37	37	37	13
Start (yyyy mm)					2024 10	2021 11	2021 06	2021 06	2021 06	2021 06	1971 04
Start to Bottom (# months)					1	12	17	17	17	17	4
Bottom (yyyy mm)					2024 10	2022 10	2022 10	2022 10	2022 10	2022 10	1971 07
Bottom to End (# months)					0	19	20	20	20	20	9
End (yyyy mm)					-	2024 05	2024 06	2024 06	2024 06	2024 06	1972 04
Longest Drawdown Depth (%)					-0.49	same	same	same	same	same	-5.36
Start to Recovery (# months)					4	same	same	same	same	same	37
Start (yyyy mm)					2024 02	2021 11	2021 06	2021 06	2021 06	2021 06	2021 06
Start to Bottom (# months)					3	12	17	17	17	17	17
Bottom (yyyy mm)					2024 04	2022 10	2022 10	2022 10	2022 10	2022 10	2022 10
Bottom to End (# months)					1	19	20	20	20	20	20
End (yyyy mm)					2024 05	2024 05	2024 06	2024 06	2024 06	2024 06	2024 06
Longest negative period (# months)					4	30	49	49	49	49	49
Start (yyyy mm)					2024 01	2021 11	2020 04	2020 04	2020 04	2020 04	2020 04
End (yyyy mm)					2024 04	2024 04	2024 04	2024 04	2024 04	2024 04	2024 04
Annualized Return (%)					-0.51	-0.20	-0.16	-0.16	-0.16	-0.16	-0.16
Drawdowns / Negative periods marked with * are in progress
Deepest Drawdown Depth (%)				-20.76	-1.61	-12.53	-19.32	-19.37	-23.21	-23.21	-45.12
Start to Recovery (# months)				190*	6	36*	53*	117*	190*	190*	153
Start (yyyy mm)					2024 02	2021 11	2020 06	2015 02	2009 01	2009 01	1915 04
Start to Bottom (# months)					3	23	40	104	177	177	63
Bottom (yyyy mm)					2024 04	2023 09	2023 09	2023 09	2023 09	2023 09	1920 06
Bottom to End (# months)					3	13	13	13	13	13	90
End (yyyy mm)					2024 07	-	-	-	-	-	1927 12
Longest Drawdown Depth (%)					same	same	same	same	same	same	-42.49
Start to Recovery (# months)					same	same	same	same	same	same	553
Start (yyyy mm)					2024 02	2021 11	2020 06	2015 02	2009 01	2009 01	1939 06
Start to Bottom (# months)					3	23	40	104	177	177	169
Bottom (yyyy mm)					2024 04	2023 09	2023 09	2023 09	2023 09	2023 09	1953 06
Bottom to End (# months)					3	13	13	13	13	13	384
End (yyyy mm)					2024 07	-	-	-	-	-	1985 06
Longest negative period (# months)					6	36*	60*	120*	240*	313*	625
Start (yyyy mm)					2023 12	2021 11	2019 11	2014 11	2004 11	1998 10	1933 02
End (yyyy mm)					2024 05	2024 10	2024 10	2024 10	2024 10	2024 10	1985 02
Annualized Return (%)					-0.06	-3.36	-2.92	-1.67	-0.75	-0.05	0.00
Drawdowns / Negative periods marked with * are in progress
RISK INDICATORS					1Y	3Y	5Y	10Y	20Y	30Y	MAX
Standard Deviation (%)					2.09	2.46	2.04	1.60	1.50	1.81	3.46
Sharpe Ratio					0.13	-1.04	-0.54	-0.23	0.20	0.47	0.12
Sortino Ratio					0.16	-1.47	-0.78	-0.33	0.31	0.72	0.19
Ulcer Index					0.24	2.55	2.27	1.63	1.17	0.97	1.20
Ratio: Return / Standard Deviation					2.67	0.40	0.55	0.73	1.19	1.74	1.28
Ratio: Return / Deepest Drawdown					8.96	0.20	0.21	0.22	0.33	0.59	0.52
Positive Months (%)					75.00	52.77	53.33	57.50	65.00	69.72	70.36
Positive Months					9	19	32	69	156	251	1299
Negative Months					3	17	28	51	84	109	547
LONG TERM RETURNS Inflation Adjusted: Inflation Adjusted:					1Y	3Y	5Y	10Y	20Y	30Y	MAX
Best 10 Years Return (%) - Annualized								1.17	2.50	5.92	11.72
Worst 10 Years Return (%) - Annualized								1.17	0.45	0.45	0.45
Best 10 Years Return (%) - Annualized								-1.67	0.62	3.36	9.41
Worst 10 Years Return (%) - Annualized								-1.67	-2.08	-2.08	-4.88
TIMEFRAMES Inflation Adjusted: Inflation Adjusted:		1M	3M	6M	1Y	3Y	5Y	10Y	20Y	30Y	MAX
··· As of Oct 2024 - Over the previous 30Y
Best Rolling Return (%) - Annualized					12.11	8.27	6.92	5.92	4.18	3.14
Worst Rolling Return (%) - Annualized					-5.11	-1.26	0.32	0.45	1.55	3.14
Positive Periods (%)					89.6	93.2	100.0	100.0	100.0	100.0
Best Rolling Return (%) - Annualized					9.46	5.61	4.50	3.36	1.81	0.60
Worst Rolling Return (%) - Annualized					-12.30	-6.64	-3.31	-2.08	-0.99	0.60
Positive Periods (%)					52.7	49.2	54.4	63.9	69.4	100.0
95% VaR - Value at Risk (%) - Cumulative		0.60	0.71	0.55	0.50	0.92	0.00	0.00	0.00
95% CVaR - Conditional Value at Risk (%)		0.82	1.08	1.08	3.05	2.65	0.00	0.00	0.00
99% VaR - Value at Risk (%) - Cumulative		0.95	1.32	1.42	4.20	3.30	0.00	0.00	0.00
99% CVaR - Conditional Value at Risk (%)		1.18	1.72	1.97	5.01	3.63	0.00	0.00	0.00
Short term VaRs: analytical \| 1+ year VaRs: historical data
Safe Withdrawal Rate (%)					93.90	29.48	18.29	9.35	4.88	4.39
Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (%)					---	---	---	---	---	0.72
% based on initial capital, inflation-adj. monthly withdrawals afterwards \| Credits: BestRetirementPortfolio.com
··· All available data (Jan 1871 - Oct 2024)
Best Rolling Return (%) - Annualized					25.82	17.24	15.57	11.72	9.50	8.27
Worst Rolling Return (%) - Annualized					-5.42	-1.26	0.32	0.45	1.09	1.88
Positive Periods (%)					92.6	98.5	100.0	100.0	100.0	100.0
Best Rolling Return (%) - Annualized					30.38	17.20	16.30	9.41	8.80	6.81
Worst Rolling Return (%) - Annualized					-19.03	-12.29	-11.10	-4.88	-2.61	-1.04
Positive Periods (%)					62.6	69.4	70.9	73.6	82.5	87.5
95% VaR - Value at Risk (%) - Cumulative		1.28	1.74	1.82	0.37	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
95% CVaR - Conditional Value at Risk (%)		1.69	2.46	2.84	1.93	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
99% VaR - Value at Risk (%) - Cumulative		1.96	2.92	3.49	3.12	0.88	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
99% CVaR - Conditional Value at Risk (%)		2.39	3.67	4.55	4.13	2.48	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
Short term VaRs: analytical \| 1+ year VaRs: historical data
Safe Withdrawal Rate (%)					88.71	26.96	14.58	7.57	3.46	2.34
Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (%)					---	---	---	---	---	---
% based on initial capital, inflation-adj. monthly withdrawals afterwards \| Credits: BestRetirementPortfolio.com

Terms and Definitions

Annualized Portfolio Return: it's the annualized geometric mean return of the portfolio.
Deepest/Longest Drawdown: a drawdown refers to the decline in value from a relative peak value to a relative trough. The deepest (or maximum) drawdown is the maximum observed loss from a peak to a trough of a portfolio before a new peak is attained. The longest drawdown is the period observed from a peak to the subsequent peak with the greatest duration.
Longest negative period: it's the maximum period for which an overall negative return has been observed.
Standard Deviation: it's a measure of the dispersion of returns around the mean.
Sharpe Ratio: it's a measure of risk-adjusted performance of the portfolio. It's calculated by dividing the excess return of the portfolio over the risk-free rate by the portfolio standard deviation. The risk-free rate here considered is the 1-3 Mth T-Bill return.
Sortino Ratio: another measure of risk-adjusted performance of the portfolio. It's a modification of the Sharpe Ratio (same formula but the denominator is the portfolio downside standard deviation).
Ulcer Index: it's a measure of downside risk that quantifies the depth and duration of drawdowns in an investment portfolio.
Best/Worst 10Y returns: the best and the worst 10-year return over a time frame.
Rolling Returns: N-year returns over a time frame, calculated over all the available data source (best, worst, % of positive returns). Each rolling period, longer than the longest negative period, yielded a non-negative minimum return.
Value at Risk (VaR): it's an evaluation of a cumulative worst-case loss (in absolute value), associated with a probability (95%-99%) and a time horizon. For short term, it's calculated based on the expected return and standard deviation, assuming a normal distribution of monthly returns. For long term is retrieved by the historical rolling return data.
Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR): it represents the average expected loss if that worst-case threshold (95%-99%) is ever crossed.
Safe Withdrawal Rate (SWR): it's the percentage of the initial portfolio balance that can be withdrawn at the beginning of each month with inflation adjustment, without the portfolio running out of money in any case (money amount withdrawal).
For instance: Your initial invested capital is 100.000$; withdrawal rate (annualized) is 4%. This means that, in the first month, you will withdraw 100.000 * 4% * 1/12 = 333.33$. The second month, you’ll withdraw 333.33$ plus the inflation monthly rate. You’ll continue adjusting your withdraw monthly for inflation.
Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (PWR): it's the percentage of the initial portfolio balance that can be withdrawn at the beginning of each month with inflation adjustment, preserving the original invested capital, adjusted for inflation too.

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Correlations as of Oct 31, 2024

Correlation measures to what degree the returns of two assets move in relation to each other. It is a statistical measure that describes the extent to which the returns of one asset are related to the returns of another asset.

The following table shows the monthly correlations of iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond (SHY) ETF vs the main Asset Classes, over different timeframes. Columns are sortable (click on table header to sort).

ISHARES 1-3 YEAR TREASURY BOND (SHY) ETF

Monthly correlations as of 31 October 2024

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		Correlation vs SHY
	Asset Class	1 Year	5 Years	10 Years	30 Years
VTI	US Total Stock Market	0.56	0.20	0.06	-0.14
SPY	US Large Cap Blend	0.53	0.21	0.07	-0.12
IJH	US Mid Cap Blend	0.53	0.10	0.00	-0.17
IJR	US Small Cap Blend	0.65	0.11	-0.02	-0.17
VNQ	US REITs	0.81	0.24	0.24	-0.01
QQQ	US Technology	0.42	0.29	0.14	-0.15
PFF	US Preferred Stocks	0.67	0.25	0.23	0.10
EFA	EAFE Stocks	0.70	0.29	0.16	-0.12
VT	World All Countries	0.63	0.23	0.11	-0.12
EEM	Emerging Markets	0.45	0.27	0.17	-0.12
BND	US Total Bond Market	0.94	0.78	0.79	0.73
TLT	US Long Term Treasuries	0.89	0.70	0.70	0.60
BIL	US Cash	0.47	0.34	0.31	0.40
TIP	US TIPS	0.96	0.64	0.66	0.61
LQD	US Invest. Grade Bonds	0.89	0.63	0.63	0.52
HYG	US High Yield Bonds	0.85	0.36	0.28	0.02
CWB	US Convertible Bonds	0.70	0.15	0.07	-0.16
BNDX	International Bonds	0.83	0.65	0.63	0.48
EMB	Emerg. Market Bonds	0.81	0.34	0.35	0.14
GLD	Gold	0.04	0.36	0.40	0.20
DBC	Commodities	-0.55	-0.27	-0.23	-0.03

Terms and Definitions

Correlation values range between -1 and +1

A correlation of +1 indicates that the returns of the two assets move in perfect synchrony; when one asset's returns go up, the other asset's returns also go up by the same percentage, and vice versa. This perfect positive correlation implies that the assets perform similarly in different market conditions.
A correlation of -1 indicates a perfect inverse relationship between the returns of the two assets. When one asset's returns go up, the other asset's returns go down by the same percentage. This perfect negative correlation suggests that the assets move in opposite directions, providing a diversification benefit by reducing overall portfolio risk.
A correlation of 0 means that there is no linear relationship between the returns of the two assets. The returns of one asset do not predict the returns of the other.

Learn about historical correlations here: see how the main asset classes relate to each other.

Drawdowns

A drawdown refers to the decline in value from a relative peak value to a relative trough. A maximum drawdown is the maximum observed loss from a peak to a trough of a portfolio before a new peak is attained.

ISHARES 1-3 YEAR TREASURY BOND (SHY) ETF

Drawdown periods

Drawdown periods - Inflation Adjusted

1 November 1994 - 31 October 2024 (30 Years)

1 January 1871 - 31 October 2024 (~154 years)

Inflation Adjusted:

Chart Table Range

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Rolling Returns

For a detailed rolling return analysis, click here
iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond (SHY) ETF: Rolling Returns

A rolling return is a measure of investment performance that calculates the return of an investment over a set period of time, with the starting date rolling forward. This approach can provide a more accurate representation of the investment's historical performance and helps investors to evaluate the investment's consistency over time.

ISHARES 1-3 YEAR TREASURY BOND (SHY) ETF

Annualized Rolling Returns

Annualized Rolling Returns - Inflation Adjusted

1 November 1994 - 31 October 2024 (30 Years)

1 January 1871 - 31 October 2024 (~154 years)

Inflation Adjusted:

Return Chart Capital Chart Table

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The values shown for the rolling periods represent key statistical points: the minimum, maximum, median, and the 15th and 85th percentiles. These percentiles give insight into the distribution of the data, indicating the range within which the central 70% of the values lie, while the median represents the middle value.

Seasonality

In which months is it better to invest in iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond (SHY) ETF?

Both the Average Return and the Gain Frequency (Win %) are useful to get an idea of what happened in the past. They are retrieved considering the time period from January 1871 to October 2024.

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For further information about the seasonality, check the Asset Class Seasonality page.

Monthly Returns

This section provides a visual/tabular representation of the performance variability in the iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond (SHY) ETF over time. It illustrates the distribution of monthly returns, showcasing the range and frequency of positive and negative returns.

ISHARES 1-3 YEAR TREASURY BOND (SHY) ETF

Monthly Returns Distribution

1 November 1994 - 31 October 2024 (30 Years)

1 January 1871 - 31 October 2024 (~154 years)

251 Positive Months (70%) - 109 Negative Months (30%)

1299 Positive Months (70%) - 547 Negative Months (30%)

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Methodology

Returns, up to December 2002, have been derived using the historical series of equivalent ETFs / Assets.
You can find additional information on extended Data Sources here.

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Table of contents

Investment Returns as of Oct 31, 2024

Capital Growth as of Oct 31, 2024

Investment Metrics as of Oct 31, 2024

Correlations as of Oct 31, 2024

Drawdowns

Rolling Returns

Seasonality

Monthly Returns