iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT): Historical Returns

Simulation Settings
Category: Fixed Income
Period: January 1871 - October 2024 (~154 years)
Consolidated Returns as of 31 October 2024
Live Update: Nov 20 2024
Currency: USD
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1.00$
Initial Capital
November 1994
4.84$
Final Capital
October 2024
5.40%
Yearly Return
12.40
Std Deviation
-47.75%
Max Drawdown
51months
Recovery Period
1.00$
Initial Capital
January 1871
1278.20$
Final Capital
October 2024
4.76%
Yearly Return
7.56
Std Deviation
-47.75%
Max Drawdown
51months
Recovery Period
Live update: November 2024 (USD)
-0.32%
1 day - Nov 20 2024
-1.88%
Month - November 2024

The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT) ETF covers to the following investment themes:

  • Asset Class: Bond
  • Region: North America
  • Country: U.S.
  • Bond - Duration: Long-Term

As of October 2024, in the previous 30 Years, the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT) ETF obtained a 5.40% compound annual return, with a 12.40% standard deviation. It suffered a maximum drawdown of -47.75% that required 51 months to be recovered.

Disclaimer: The simulations on this website are provided in good faith but should NOT be taken as investment advice. We are not liable for any errors or actions based on this information. The authors of the website are not affiliated with the ETFs/Assets issuers. Content is for informational, educational, illustrative and entertainment purposes only.

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The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT) ETF is part of the following Lazy Portfolios:

Portfolio Name Author TLT Weight▾ Currency
All Weather Portfolio Ray Dalio 40.00% USD
All Weather Portfolio with Bitcoin Ray Dalio 40.00% USD
Permanent Portfolio Harry Browne 25.00% USD
Paul Boyer Portfolio Paul Boyer 25.00% USD
Permanent Portfolio with Bitcoin Harry Browne 25.00% USD
Golden Butterfly Tyler 20.00% USD
Golden Butterfly with Bitcoin Tyler 20.00% USD
Weird Portfolio Value Stock Geek 20.00% USD
Global Market Portfolio Credit Suisse 15.00% USD
GAA Global Asset Allocation Mebane Faber 13.50% USD
Rob Arnott Portfolio Rob Arnott 10.00% USD
Family Taxable Portfolio Ted Aronson 10.00% USD
Gretchen Tai Portfolio Gretchen Tai 4.00% USD
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Investment Returns as of Oct 31, 2024

The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT) ETF guaranteed the following returns.

Returns are calculated in USD, assuming:
  • no fees or capital gain taxes.
  • dividend reinvestment, when applicable.
  • the actual US Inflation rates.
ISHARES 20+ YEAR TREASURY BOND (TLT) ETF
1 January 1871 - 31 October 2024 (~154 years)
Live Update: Nov 20 2024
Swipe left to see all data
  Chg (%) Return (%) Return (%) as of Oct 31, 2024
  1 Day Time ET(*) Nov 2024 YTD
(10M) 		1M 6M 1Y 5Y 10Y 30Y MAX
(~154Y)
Investment Return -0.32 -1.88 -3.70 -5.45 6.90 15.05 -5.91 -0.09 5.40 4.76
US Inflation Adjusted Return -5.75 -5.69 6.14 12.16 -9.67 -2.89 2.80 2.58
Returns over 1 year are annualized
(*) Eastern Time (ET - America/New York)
US Inflation is updated to Oct 2024. Inflation (annualized) is 1Y: 2.58% , 5Y: 4.17% , 10Y: 2.88% , 30Y: 2.52%

In 2023, the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT) ETF granted a 3.41% dividend yield. If you are interested in getting periodic income, please refer to the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT) ETF: Dividend Yield page.

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Capital Growth as of Oct 31, 2024

An investment of 1$, from November 1994 to October 2024, would be worth 4.84$, with a total return of 384.11% (5.40% annualized).

The Inflation Adjusted Capital would be 2.29$, with a net total return of 129.28% (2.80% annualized).

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An investment of 1$, from January 1871 to October 2024, would be worth 1278.20$, with a total return of 127720.24% (4.76% annualized).

The Inflation Adjusted Capital would be 50.56$, with a net total return of 4956.22% (2.58% annualized).

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Investment Metrics as of Oct 31, 2024

Metrics of iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT) ETF, updated as of 31 October 2024, provide a comprehensive overview of the portfolio's performance and risk characteristics.

These metrics include detailed data on returns, volatility, drawdowns and other key performance indicators. By examining them, you can gain insights into how the portfolio has performed over various time periods and understand its risk profile.

Metrics are calculated based on monthly returns, assuming:
  • no fees or capital gain taxes.
  • dividend reinvestment, when applicable.
  • the actual US Inflation rates.
ISHARES 20+ YEAR TREASURY BOND (TLT) ETF
Advanced Metrics
1 January 1871 - 31 October 2024 (~154 years)
Swipe left to see all data
Metrics as of Oct 31, 2024
YTD
(10M) 		1M 3M 6M 1Y 3Y 5Y 10Y 20Y 30Y MAX
(~154Y)
Investment Return (%)
-3.70 -5.45 -1.53 6.90 15.05 -11.91 -5.91 -0.09 3.40 5.40 4.76
Growth of 1$ 0.96 0.95 0.98 1.07 1.15 0.68 0.74 0.99 1.95 4.84 1.3K
Infl. Adjusted Return (%)
-5.75 -5.69 -2.13 6.14 12.16 -15.71 -9.67 -2.89 0.83 2.80 2.58
US Inflation (%) 2.17 0.24 0.61 0.72 2.58 4.50 4.17 2.88 2.55 2.52 2.12
Returns / Inflation rates over 1 year are annualized.
DRAWDOWN
Inflation Adjusted:
Inflation Adjusted:
 Current 1Y 3Y 5Y 10Y 20Y 30Y MAX
Deepest Drawdown Depth (%) -39.89 -9.92 -42.19 -47.75 -47.75 -47.75 -47.75 -47.75
Start to Recovery (# months)
51* 9 35* 51* 51* 51* 51* 51*
Start (yyyy mm) 2024 01 2021 12 2020 08 2020 08 2020 08 2020 08 2020 08
Start to Bottom (# months) 4 23 39 39 39 39 39
Bottom (yyyy mm) 2024 04 2023 10 2023 10 2023 10 2023 10 2023 10 2023 10
Bottom to End (# months) 5 12 12 12 12 12 12
End (yyyy mm) 2024 09 - - - - - -
Longest Drawdown Depth (%)
same
same
same
same
same
same
same
Start to Recovery (# months)
Start (yyyy mm) 2024 01 2021 12 2020 08 2020 08 2020 08 2020 08 2020 08
Start to Bottom (# months) 4 23 39 39 39 39 39
Bottom (yyyy mm) 2024 04 2023 10 2023 10 2023 10 2023 10 2023 10 2023 10
Bottom to End (# months) 5 12 12 12 12 12 12
End (yyyy mm) 2024 09 - - - - - -
Longest negative period (# months)
10* 36* 60* 120* 149* 149* 170
Start (yyyy mm) 2024 01 2021 11 2019 11 2014 11 2012 06 2012 06 1945 12
End (yyyy mm) 2024 10 2024 10 2024 10 2024 10 2024 10 2024 10 1960 01
Annualized Return (%) -4.42 -11.91 -5.91 -0.09 -0.06 -0.06 -0.01
Drawdowns / Negative periods marked with * are in progress
Deepest Drawdown Depth (%) -50.76 -11.20 -47.59 -56.10 -56.10 -56.10 -56.10 -70.00
Start to Recovery (# months)
51* 10* 35* 51* 51* 51* 51* 607
Start (yyyy mm) 2024 01 2021 12 2020 08 2020 08 2020 08 2020 08 1941 02
Start to Bottom (# months) 4 23 39 39 39 39 488
Bottom (yyyy mm) 2024 04 2023 10 2023 10 2023 10 2023 10 2023 10 1981 09
Bottom to End (# months) 6 12 12 12 12 12 119
End (yyyy mm) - - - - - - 1991 08
Longest Drawdown Depth (%)
same
same
same
same
same
same
same
Start to Recovery (# months)
Start (yyyy mm) 2024 01 2021 12 2020 08 2020 08 2020 08 2020 08 1941 02
Start to Bottom (# months) 4 23 39 39 39 39 488
Bottom (yyyy mm) 2024 04 2023 10 2023 10 2023 10 2023 10 2023 10 1981 09
Bottom to End (# months) 6 12 12 12 12 12 119
End (yyyy mm) - - - - - - 1991 08
Longest negative period (# months)
10* 36* 60* 120* 221 221 1051
Start (yyyy mm) 2024 01 2021 11 2019 11 2014 11 2005 06 2005 06 1894 03
End (yyyy mm) 2024 10 2024 10 2024 10 2024 10 2023 10 2023 10 1981 09
Annualized Return (%) -6.86 -15.71 -9.67 -2.89 -0.12 -0.12 0.00
Drawdowns / Negative periods marked with * are in progress
RISK INDICATORS
1Y 3Y 5Y 10Y 20Y 30Y MAX
Standard Deviation (%) 16.42 16.60 15.47 13.95 13.81 12.40 7.56
Sharpe Ratio 0.59 -0.93 -0.53 -0.12 0.14 0.25 0.10
Sortino Ratio 0.85 -1.43 -0.78 -0.17 0.21 0.36 0.15
Ulcer Index 4.44 28.99 28.18 20.98 16.32 13.56 6.78
Ratio: Return / Standard Deviation 0.92 -0.72 -0.38 -0.01 0.25 0.44 0.63
Ratio: Return / Deepest Drawdown 1.52 -0.28 -0.12 0.00 0.07 0.11 0.10
Positive Months (%)
66.66 41.66 46.66 49.16 51.66 56.11 64.73
Positive Months 8 15 28 59 124 202 1195
Negative Months 4 21 32 61 116 158 651
LONG TERM RETURNS
Inflation Adjusted:
Inflation Adjusted:
 1Y 3Y 5Y 10Y 20Y 30Y MAX
Best 10 Years Return (%) - Annualized -0.09 9.39 9.52 17.64
Worst 10 Years Return (%) - Annualized -0.15 -0.15 -0.83
Best 10 Years Return (%) - Annualized -2.89 7.53 7.53 13.18
Worst 10 Years Return (%) - Annualized -2.89 -2.89 -6.48
TIMEFRAMES
Inflation Adjusted:
Inflation Adjusted:
 1M 3M 6M 1Y 3Y 5Y 10Y 20Y 30Y MAX
··· As of Oct 2024 - Over the previous 30Y
Best Rolling Return (%) - Annualized 37.76 15.28 12.57 9.52 8.83 5.40
Worst Rolling Return (%) - Annualized -33.64 -17.32 -5.94 -0.15 3.18
Positive Periods (%) 71.0 89.5 91.0 98.7 100.0 100.0
Best Rolling Return (%) - Annualized 37.26 12.90 10.38 7.53 6.44 2.80
Worst Rolling Return (%) - Annualized -38.41 -21.80 -9.71 -2.89 0.59
Positive Periods (%) 65.0 83.3 89.3 87.5 100.0 100.0
95% VaR - Value at Risk (%) - Cumulative
5.39 8.69 11.41 14.18 31.05 11.70 0.00 0.00
95% CVaR - Conditional Value at Risk (%) 6.87 11.26 15.05 21.91 34.82 18.96 0.00 0.00
99% VaR - Value at Risk (%) - Cumulative
7.82 12.91 17.38 30.81 38.89 23.22 1.35 0.00
99% CVaR - Conditional Value at Risk (%) 9.38 15.60 21.18 32.44 42.87 26.32 1.53 0.00
Short term VaRs: analytical | 1+ year VaRs: historical data
Safe Withdrawal Rate (%) 77.46 22.66 15.45 10.12 6.60 6.96
Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (%) --- --- --- --- 0.81 3.93
% based on initial capital, inflation-adj. monthly withdrawals afterwards | Credits: BestRetirementPortfolio.com
··· All available data (Jan 1871 - Oct 2024)
Best Rolling Return (%) - Annualized 67.15 30.06 28.14 17.64 13.28 11.72
Worst Rolling Return (%) - Annualized -33.64 -17.32 -5.94 -0.83 0.24 1.28
Positive Periods (%) 79.0 91.5 95.4 99.0 100.0 100.0
Best Rolling Return (%) - Annualized 63.62 26.19 23.78 13.18 9.66 8.46
Worst Rolling Return (%) - Annualized -38.41 -21.80 -12.22 -6.48 -3.73 -2.64
Positive Periods (%) 61.0 70.0 67.5 64.6 69.9 80.2
95% VaR - Value at Risk (%) - Cumulative
3.18 4.98 6.32 6.53 4.24 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
95% CVaR - Conditional Value at Risk (%) 4.08 6.55 8.54 11.78 15.40 7.52 0.00 0.00 0.00
99% VaR - Value at Risk (%) - Cumulative
4.66 7.56 9.96 14.44 29.36 11.39 0.00 0.00 0.00
99% CVaR - Conditional Value at Risk (%) 5.61 9.19 12.28 21.85 34.29 17.77 3.76 0.00 0.00
Short term VaRs: analytical | 1+ year VaRs: historical data
Safe Withdrawal Rate (%) 77.46 22.66 13.90 7.61 3.62 2.28
Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (%) --- --- --- --- --- ---
% based on initial capital, inflation-adj. monthly withdrawals afterwards | Credits: BestRetirementPortfolio.com
Terms and Definitions
  • Annualized Portfolio Return: it's the annualized geometric mean return of the portfolio.
  • Deepest/Longest Drawdown: a drawdown refers to the decline in value from a relative peak value to a relative trough. The deepest (or maximum) drawdown is the maximum observed loss from a peak to a trough of a portfolio before a new peak is attained. The longest drawdown is the period observed from a peak to the subsequent peak with the greatest duration.
  • Longest negative period: it's the maximum period for which an overall negative return has been observed.
  • Standard Deviation: it's a measure of the dispersion of returns around the mean.
  • Sharpe Ratio: it's a measure of risk-adjusted performance of the portfolio. It's calculated by dividing the excess return of the portfolio over the risk-free rate by the portfolio standard deviation. The risk-free rate here considered is the 1-3 Mth T-Bill return.
  • Sortino Ratio: another measure of risk-adjusted performance of the portfolio. It's a modification of the Sharpe Ratio (same formula but the denominator is the portfolio downside standard deviation).
  • Ulcer Index: it's a measure of downside risk that quantifies the depth and duration of drawdowns in an investment portfolio.
  • Best/Worst 10Y returns: the best and the worst 10-year return over a time frame.
  • Rolling Returns: N-year returns over a time frame, calculated over all the available data source (best, worst, % of positive returns). Each rolling period, longer than the longest negative period, yielded a non-negative minimum return.
  • Value at Risk (VaR): it's an evaluation of a cumulative worst-case loss (in absolute value), associated with a probability (95%-99%) and a time horizon. For short term, it's calculated based on the expected return and standard deviation, assuming a normal distribution of monthly returns. For long term is retrieved by the historical rolling return data.
  • Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR): it represents the average expected loss if that worst-case threshold (95%-99%) is ever crossed.
  • Safe Withdrawal Rate (SWR): it's the percentage of the initial portfolio balance that can be withdrawn at the beginning of each month with inflation adjustment, without the portfolio running out of money in any case (money amount withdrawal).
    For instance: Your initial invested capital is 100.000$; withdrawal rate (annualized) is 4%. This means that, in the first month, you will withdraw 100.000 * 4% * 1/12 = 333.33$. The second month, you’ll withdraw 333.33$ plus the inflation monthly rate. You’ll continue adjusting your withdraw monthly for inflation.
  • Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (PWR): it's the percentage of the initial portfolio balance that can be withdrawn at the beginning of each month with inflation adjustment, preserving the original invested capital, adjusted for inflation too.
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Correlations as of Oct 31, 2024

Correlation measures to what degree the returns of two assets move in relation to each other. It is a statistical measure that describes the extent to which the returns of one asset are related to the returns of another asset.

The following table shows the monthly correlations of iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT) ETF vs the main Asset Classes, over different timeframes. Columns are sortable (click on table header to sort).

ISHARES 20+ YEAR TREASURY BOND (TLT) ETF
Monthly correlations as of 31 October 2024
Swipe left to see all data
Correlation vs TLT
Asset Class 1 Year 5 Years 10 Years 30 Years
VTI
 US Total Stock Market 0.81 0.32 0.10 -0.11
SPY
 US Large Cap Blend 0.78 0.33 0.11 -0.10
IJH
 US Mid Cap Blend 0.76 0.21 0.03 -0.14
IJR
 US Small Cap Blend 0.80 0.18 -0.01 -0.16
VNQ
 US REITs 0.94 0.42 0.42 0.11
QQQ
 US Technology 0.70 0.45 0.20 -0.08
PFF
 US Preferred Stocks 0.80 0.40 0.36 0.15
EFA
 EAFE Stocks 0.84 0.34 0.14 -0.09
VT
 World All Countries 0.86 0.33 0.12 -0.11
EEM
 Emerging Markets 0.68 0.33 0.14 -0.11
BND
 US Total Bond Market 0.98 0.87 0.88 0.85
BIL
 US Cash 0.46 0.10 0.05 0.05
TIP
 US TIPS 0.95 0.70 0.71 0.67
LQD
 US Invest. Grade Bonds 0.98 0.76 0.74 0.67
HYG
 US High Yield Bonds 0.97 0.36 0.23 0.06
CWB
 US Convertible Bonds 0.91 0.30 0.13 -0.08
BNDX
 International Bonds 0.95 0.72 0.74 0.53
EMB
 Emerg. Market Bonds 0.95 0.45 0.42 0.28
GLD
 Gold -0.01 0.35 0.42 0.20
DBC
 Commodities -0.62 -0.31 -0.36 -0.18
Terms and Definitions
Correlation values range between -1 and +1
  • A correlation of +1 indicates that the returns of the two assets move in perfect synchrony; when one asset's returns go up, the other asset's returns also go up by the same percentage, and vice versa. This perfect positive correlation implies that the assets perform similarly in different market conditions.
  • A correlation of -1 indicates a perfect inverse relationship between the returns of the two assets. When one asset's returns go up, the other asset's returns go down by the same percentage. This perfect negative correlation suggests that the assets move in opposite directions, providing a diversification benefit by reducing overall portfolio risk.
  • A correlation of 0 means that there is no linear relationship between the returns of the two assets. The returns of one asset do not predict the returns of the other.
Learn about historical correlations here: see how the main asset classes relate to each other.

Drawdowns

A drawdown refers to the decline in value from a relative peak value to a relative trough. A maximum drawdown is the maximum observed loss from a peak to a trough of a portfolio before a new peak is attained.

ISHARES 20+ YEAR TREASURY BOND (TLT) ETF
Drawdown periods
Drawdown periods - Inflation Adjusted
1 November 1994 - 31 October 2024 (30 Years)
1 January 1871 - 31 October 2024 (~154 years)
Inflation Adjusted:

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Rolling Returns

For a detailed rolling return analysis, click here
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT) ETF: Rolling Returns

A rolling return is a measure of investment performance that calculates the return of an investment over a set period of time, with the starting date rolling forward. This approach can provide a more accurate representation of the investment's historical performance and helps investors to evaluate the investment's consistency over time.

ISHARES 20+ YEAR TREASURY BOND (TLT) ETF
Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Returns - Inflation Adjusted
1 November 1994 - 31 October 2024 (30 Years)
1 January 1871 - 31 October 2024 (~154 years)
Inflation Adjusted:

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The values shown for the rolling periods represent key statistical points: the minimum, maximum, median, and the 15th and 85th percentiles. These percentiles give insight into the distribution of the data, indicating the range within which the central 70% of the values lie, while the median represents the middle value.

Seasonality

In which months is it better to invest in iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT) ETF?

Both the Average Return and the Gain Frequency (Win %) are useful to get an idea of what happened in the past. They are retrieved considering the time period from January 1871 to October 2024.

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For further information about the seasonality, check the Asset Class Seasonality page.

Monthly Returns

This section provides a visual/tabular representation of the performance variability in the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT) ETF over time. It illustrates the distribution of monthly returns, showcasing the range and frequency of positive and negative returns.

ISHARES 20+ YEAR TREASURY BOND (TLT) ETF
Monthly Returns Distribution
1 November 1994 - 31 October 2024 (30 Years)
1 January 1871 - 31 October 2024 (~154 years)
202 Positive Months (56%) - 158 Negative Months (44%)
1195 Positive Months (65%) - 651 Negative Months (35%)

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Methodology

Returns, up to December 2002, have been derived using the historical series of equivalent ETFs / Assets.
You can find additional information on extended Data Sources here.

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