When holding the iShares Core Global Aggregate Bond (EUNU.DE) ETF, how long should you stay invested to have high probability to achieve a positive return?
Over the selected period (~52 years), the longest duration with a negative return was 125 months (from August 1972 to December 1982).
This indicates that, within the same timeframe, any rolling period of 126 months or more has consistently resulted in a positive return.
Understanding this metric is crucial as it highlights the importance of a safe investment horizon. Knowing the minimum duration required to likely see positive returns helps investors set realistic expectations and reinforces the strategy of staying invested through market cycles. This approach can mitigate the emotional reactions to short-term market fluctuations and enhance the likelihood of achieving financial goals.
iShares Core Global Aggregate Bond (EUNU.DE) ETF: Historical Returns
Previous vs subsequent Returns
Is there a correlation between past and future returns over all 10-year rolling periods?
The following chart illustrates the relationship between past returns (x-axis) and subsequent returns (y-axis).
Data points are aggregated to show occurrences, and you can zoom in by clicking or drawing over the desired area.
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As of Aug 31, 2024, the annualized return of the previous 10 years has been 1.75%.
Rolling Returns
A rolling return is a measure of investment performance that calculates the return of an investment over a set period of time, with the starting date rolling forward. This approach can provide a more accurate representation of the investment's historical performance and helps investors to evaluate the investment's consistency over time.
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Rolling Period Analysis
By selecting the 'Rolling Period', the chart and data will update. To study a different date range, change the simulation settings.
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Worst | Median | Best | Negative Periods |
---|---|---|---|
-26.40%
Aug 1972 - Jul 1973 |
+3.30% |
+41.55%
Nov 1981 - Oct 1982 |
39.09%
240 out of 614 |
-31.42%
Aug 1972 - Jul 1973 |
+1.56% |
+35.03%
Nov 1981 - Oct 1982 |
44.95%
276 out of 614 |
-14.49%
Nov 1976 - Oct 1978 |
+4.15% |
+28.94%
Nov 1980 - Oct 1982 |
32.06%
193 out of 602 |
-19.29%
Feb 1973 - Jan 1975 |
+1.56% |
+21.49%
Nov 1980 - Oct 1982 |
41.20%
248 out of 602 |
-11.82%
Nov 1975 - Oct 1978 |
+3.86% |
+23.92%
Sep 1980 - Aug 1983 |
20.17%
119 out of 590 |
-14.58%
Nov 1975 - Oct 1978 |
+1.87% |
+18.77%
Feb 1982 - Jan 1985 |
36.27%
214 out of 590 |
-9.40%
Mar 1976 - Feb 1980 |
+4.60% |
+22.02%
Oct 1980 - Sep 1984 |
16.61%
96 out of 578 |
-12.76%
Mar 1976 - Feb 1980 |
+2.68% |
+17.14%
Oct 1980 - Sep 1984 |
30.45%
176 out of 578 |
-8.09%
Jan 1973 - Dec 1977 |
+4.72% |
+21.57%
Mar 1980 - Feb 1985 |
14.84%
84 out of 566 |
-12.64%
Jan 1973 - Dec 1977 |
+2.62% |
+16.77%
Mar 1980 - Feb 1985 |
26.68%
151 out of 566 |
-9.59%
Nov 1972 - Oct 1978 |
+4.99% |
+18.18%
Mar 1980 - Feb 1986 |
12.64%
70 out of 554 |
-13.76%
Nov 1972 - Oct 1978 |
+2.96% |
+14.18%
Apr 1980 - Mar 1986 |
22.38%
124 out of 554 |
-8.12%
Jan 1973 - Dec 1979 |
+4.77% |
+14.91%
Nov 1978 - Oct 1985 |
9.23%
50 out of 542 |
-12.38%
Jan 1973 - Dec 1979 |
+2.68% |
+11.51%
Mar 1980 - Feb 1987 |
21.03%
114 out of 542 |
-6.63%
Sep 1972 - Aug 1980 |
+5.00% |
+13.86%
Oct 1980 - Sep 1988 |
4.72%
25 out of 530 |
-11.11%
Sep 1972 - Aug 1980 |
+2.91% |
+11.06%
Oct 1980 - Sep 1988 |
16.98%
90 out of 530 |
-3.77%
Nov 1972 - Oct 1981 |
+5.39% |
+13.40%
Feb 1980 - Jan 1989 |
2.12%
11 out of 518 |
-8.49%
Nov 1972 - Oct 1981 |
+3.03% |
+10.49%
Sep 1980 - Aug 1989 |
11.00%
57 out of 518 |
-1.50%
Aug 1972 - Jul 1982 |
+5.24% |
+11.67%
Nov 1979 - Oct 1989 |
0.99%
5 out of 506 |
-6.37%
Aug 1972 - Jul 1982 |
+3.21% |
+8.65%
Dec 1979 - Nov 1989 |
9.88%
50 out of 506 |
+0.67%
Aug 1972 - Jul 1983 |
+5.08% |
+11.55%
Sep 1980 - Aug 1991 |
0.00%
0 out of 494 |
-4.11%
Aug 1972 - Jul 1983 |
+3.17% |
+8.48%
Sep 1980 - Aug 1991 |
6.88%
34 out of 494 |
+1.01%
Jun 2012 - May 2024 |
+5.33% |
+11.16%
Mar 1980 - Feb 1992 |
0.00%
0 out of 482 |
-2.98%
Aug 1972 - Jul 1984 |
+3.10% |
+7.99%
Mar 1980 - Feb 1992 |
4.77%
23 out of 482 |
+1.64%
Sep 2010 - Aug 2023 |
+5.18% |
+11.25%
Sep 1980 - Aug 1993 |
0.00%
0 out of 470 |
-1.56%
Oct 1972 - Sep 1985 |
+3.09% |
+8.09%
Sep 1980 - Aug 1993 |
3.19%
15 out of 470 |
+1.79%
Jul 2010 - Jun 2024 |
+5.19% |
+11.41%
Feb 1980 - Jan 1994 |
0.00%
0 out of 458 |
-1.37%
Dec 1972 - Nov 1986 |
+3.02% |
+8.13%
Feb 1980 - Jan 1994 |
3.06%
14 out of 458 |
+2.18%
Jan 1973 - Dec 1987 |
+5.18% |
+10.17%
Nov 1978 - Oct 1993 |
0.00%
0 out of 446 |
-1.54%
Jan 1973 - Dec 1987 |
+2.81% |
+6.74%
Nov 1978 - Oct 1993 |
2.24%
10 out of 446 |
+2.73%
Feb 2002 - Jan 2018 |
+5.37% |
+9.48%
Feb 1980 - Jan 1996 |
0.00%
0 out of 434 |
-0.68%
Sep 1972 - Aug 1988 |
+2.80% |
+6.57%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1997 |
1.61%
7 out of 434 |
+2.83%
Nov 2006 - Oct 2023 |
+5.24% |
+10.05%
Sep 1980 - Aug 1997 |
0.00%
0 out of 422 |
-0.74%
Jan 1973 - Dec 1989 |
+2.89% |
+7.08%
Sep 1980 - Aug 1997 |
2.37%
10 out of 422 |
+2.54%
Nov 1972 - Oct 1990 |
+5.18% |
+10.09%
Mar 1980 - Feb 1998 |
0.00%
0 out of 410 |
-1.12%
Nov 1972 - Oct 1990 |
+2.81% |
+7.13%
Mar 1980 - Feb 1998 |
1.95%
8 out of 410 |
+2.65%
Jul 2005 - Jun 2024 |
+5.26% |
+9.68%
Mar 1980 - Feb 1999 |
0.00%
0 out of 398 |
-0.49%
Jan 1973 - Dec 1991 |
+2.95% |
+6.92%
Nov 1981 - Oct 2000 |
1.76%
7 out of 398 |
+2.63%
Jan 2003 - Dec 2022 |
+5.25% |
+9.87%
Oct 1980 - Sep 2000 |
0.00%
0 out of 386 |
-0.77%
Sep 1972 - Aug 1992 |
+2.81% |
+7.10%
Oct 1980 - Sep 2000 |
1.55%
6 out of 386 |
+2.89%
May 1999 - Apr 2024 |
+5.40% |
+8.17%
Feb 1980 - Jan 2005 |
0.00%
0 out of 326 |
+0.74%
May 1999 - Apr 2024 |
+3.24% |
+5.53%
Sep 1980 - Aug 2005 |
0.00%
0 out of 326 |
+3.43%
Feb 1994 - Jan 2024 |
+5.33% |
+7.70%
Sep 1980 - Aug 2010 |
0.00%
0 out of 266 |
+1.34%
Nov 1993 - Oct 2023 |
+3.04% |
+5.19%
Sep 1980 - Aug 2010 |
0.00%
0 out of 266 |
iShares Core Global Aggregate Bond (EUNU.DE) ETF: Historical Returns