When holding the iShares Core MSCI EAFE ETF (IEFA) ETF, how long should you stay invested to have high probability to achieve a positive return?
Over the selected period (~12 years), the longest duration with a negative return was 76 months (from December 2013 to March 2020).
This indicates that, within the same timeframe, any rolling period of 77 months or more has consistently resulted in a positive return.
Understanding this metric is crucial as it highlights the importance of a safe investment horizon. Knowing the minimum duration required to likely see positive returns helps investors set realistic expectations and reinforces the strategy of staying invested through market cycles. This approach can mitigate the emotional reactions to short-term market fluctuations and enhance the likelihood of achieving financial goals.
iShares Core MSCI EAFE ETF (IEFA) ETF: Historical Returns
Rolling Returns
A rolling return is a measure of investment performance that calculates the return of an investment over a set period of time, with the starting date rolling forward. This approach can provide a more accurate representation of the investment's historical performance and helps investors to evaluate the investment's consistency over time.
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Rolling Period Analysis
By selecting the 'Rolling Period', the chart and data will update. To study a different date range, change the simulation settings.
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Worst | Median | Best | Negative Periods |
---|---|---|---|
-26.28%
Oct 2021 - Sep 2022 |
+6.22% |
+47.51%
Apr 2020 - Mar 2021 |
38.46%
50 out of 130 |
-31.87%
Oct 2021 - Sep 2022 |
+2.17% |
+43.75%
Apr 2020 - Mar 2021 |
44.62%
58 out of 130 |
-10.12%
Apr 2018 - Mar 2020 |
+4.41% |
+25.18%
Oct 2022 - Sep 2024 |
30.51%
36 out of 118 |
-11.67%
Nov 2021 - Oct 2023 |
+1.33% |
+21.48%
Oct 2022 - Sep 2024 |
44.07%
52 out of 118 |
-2.01%
Oct 2019 - Sep 2022 |
+4.59% |
+13.93%
Jan 2019 - Dec 2021 |
9.43%
10 out of 106 |
-6.62%
Oct 2019 - Sep 2022 |
+1.94% |
+10.00%
Jan 2019 - Dec 2021 |
31.13%
33 out of 106 |
-1.87%
Oct 2018 - Sep 2022 |
+5.17% |
+13.58%
Apr 2020 - Mar 2024 |
1.06%
1 out of 94 |
-5.75%
Oct 2018 - Sep 2022 |
+2.99% |
+8.31%
Apr 2020 - Mar 2024 |
11.70%
11 out of 94 |
-0.96%
Oct 2017 - Sep 2022 |
+4.97% |
+10.61%
Jul 2016 - Jun 2021 |
3.66%
3 out of 82 |
-4.54%
Oct 2017 - Sep 2022 |
+2.28% |
+8.01%
Mar 2016 - Feb 2021 |
21.95%
18 out of 82 |
-0.47%
Apr 2014 - Mar 2020 |
+5.06% |
+8.83%
Feb 2016 - Jan 2022 |
1.43%
1 out of 70 |
-1.94%
Apr 2014 - Mar 2020 |
+2.26% |
+6.23%
Oct 2015 - Sep 2021 |
11.43%
8 out of 70 |
+1.99%
Apr 2013 - Mar 2020 |
+5.57% |
+7.37%
Jan 2015 - Dec 2021 |
0.00%
0 out of 58 |
-0.44%
Nov 2015 - Oct 2022 |
+2.79% |
+4.91%
Jan 2013 - Dec 2019 |
5.17%
3 out of 58 |
+1.62%
Oct 2014 - Sep 2022 |
+5.45% |
+7.81%
Mar 2016 - Feb 2024 |
0.00%
0 out of 46 |
-1.15%
Oct 2014 - Sep 2022 |
+2.91% |
+5.67%
Jul 2013 - Jun 2021 |
8.70%
4 out of 46 |
+1.87%
Oct 2013 - Sep 2022 |
+4.56% |
+7.48%
Oct 2015 - Sep 2024 |
0.00%
0 out of 34 |
-0.79%
Oct 2013 - Sep 2022 |
+1.71% |
+5.01%
Jan 2013 - Dec 2021 |
5.88%
2 out of 34 |
+3.32%
Nov 2013 - Oct 2023 |
+4.93% |
+5.95%
Oct 2014 - Sep 2024 |
0.00%
0 out of 22 |
+0.52%
Nov 2013 - Oct 2023 |
+2.15% |
+3.01%
Oct 2014 - Sep 2024 |
0.00%
0 out of 22 |
+5.30%
May 2013 - Apr 2024 |
+5.92% |
+6.39%
Sep 2013 - Aug 2024 |
0.00%
0 out of 10 |
+2.45%
May 2013 - Apr 2024 |
+3.15% |
+3.55%
Sep 2013 - Aug 2024 |
0.00%
0 out of 10 |
iShares Core MSCI EAFE ETF (IEFA) ETF: Historical Returns