When holding the iShares Core S&P 500 (SXR8.DE) ETF, how long should you stay invested to have high probability to achieve a positive return?
Over the selected period (~71 years), the longest duration with a negative return was 161 months (from September 2000 to January 2014).
This indicates that, within the same timeframe, any rolling period of 162 months or more has consistently resulted in a positive return.
Understanding this metric is crucial as it highlights the importance of a safe investment horizon. Knowing the minimum duration required to likely see positive returns helps investors set realistic expectations and reinforces the strategy of staying invested through market cycles. This approach can mitigate the emotional reactions to short-term market fluctuations and enhance the likelihood of achieving financial goals.
iShares Core S&P 500 (SXR8.DE) ETF: Historical Returns
Previous vs subsequent Returns
Is there a correlation between past and future returns over all 10-year rolling periods?
The following chart illustrates the relationship between past returns (x-axis) and subsequent returns (y-axis).
Data points are aggregated to show occurrences, and you can zoom in by clicking or drawing over the desired area.
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As of Sep 30, 2024, the annualized return of the previous 10 years has been 14.29%.
Rolling Returns
A rolling return is a measure of investment performance that calculates the return of an investment over a set period of time, with the starting date rolling forward. This approach can provide a more accurate representation of the investment's historical performance and helps investors to evaluate the investment's consistency over time.
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Rolling Period Analysis
By selecting the 'Rolling Period', the chart and data will update. To study a different date range, change the simulation settings.
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Worst | Median | Best | Negative Periods |
---|---|---|---|
-39.95%
Apr 2002 - Mar 2003 |
+12.11% |
+80.05%
Aug 1996 - Jul 1997 |
25.15%
212 out of 843 |
-41.34%
Apr 2002 - Mar 2003 |
+9.16% |
+77.41%
Aug 1996 - Jul 1997 |
29.89%
252 out of 843 |
-27.62%
Oct 2000 - Sep 2002 |
+11.18% |
+48.45%
Aug 1995 - Jul 1997 |
16.13%
134 out of 831 |
-31.89%
Jan 1973 - Dec 1974 |
+8.72% |
+45.73%
Aug 1995 - Jul 1997 |
21.90%
182 out of 831 |
-19.91%
Apr 2000 - Mar 2003 |
+11.29% |
+42.07%
Apr 1995 - Mar 1998 |
14.77%
121 out of 819 |
-21.76%
Apr 2000 - Mar 2003 |
+8.52% |
+39.68%
Apr 1995 - Mar 1998 |
21.25%
174 out of 819 |
-13.57%
Nov 2000 - Oct 2004 |
+11.08% |
+37.02%
Sep 1996 - Aug 2000 |
14.37%
116 out of 807 |
-15.46%
Nov 2000 - Oct 2004 |
+8.11% |
+34.99%
Sep 1996 - Aug 2000 |
22.55%
182 out of 807 |
-9.42%
May 2000 - Apr 2005 |
+10.86% |
+35.22%
Apr 1995 - Mar 2000 |
14.34%
114 out of 795 |
-13.53%
Oct 1969 - Sep 1974 |
+8.14% |
+33.09%
Apr 1995 - Mar 2000 |
22.77%
181 out of 795 |
-7.81%
Oct 1968 - Sep 1974 |
+11.08% |
+30.83%
Mar 1979 - Feb 1985 |
12.39%
97 out of 783 |
-12.34%
Oct 1968 - Sep 1974 |
+8.35% |
+28.28%
Nov 1994 - Oct 2000 |
22.09%
173 out of 783 |
-8.96%
Mar 2002 - Feb 2009 |
+11.23% |
+28.32%
Mar 1978 - Feb 1985 |
9.73%
75 out of 771 |
-10.83%
Mar 2002 - Feb 2009 |
+8.32% |
+23.73%
May 1993 - Apr 2000 |
19.58%
151 out of 771 |
-8.28%
Mar 2001 - Feb 2009 |
+10.83% |
+27.37%
Sep 1992 - Aug 2000 |
6.19%
47 out of 759 |
-10.21%
Mar 2001 - Feb 2009 |
+8.20% |
+24.76%
Sep 1992 - Aug 2000 |
19.50%
148 out of 759 |
-8.57%
Apr 2000 - Mar 2009 |
+10.73% |
+24.76%
Jan 1991 - Dec 1999 |
7.10%
53 out of 747 |
-10.49%
Apr 2000 - Mar 2009 |
+8.12% |
+21.78%
Jan 1991 - Dec 1999 |
18.21%
136 out of 747 |
-5.32%
Sep 2000 - Aug 2010 |
+10.70% |
+25.01%
Nov 1990 - Oct 2000 |
7.35%
54 out of 735 |
-7.20%
Sep 2000 - Aug 2010 |
+8.33% |
+22.09%
Nov 1990 - Oct 2000 |
16.87%
124 out of 735 |
-4.47%
Sep 2000 - Aug 2011 |
+10.40% |
+20.78%
Jan 1989 - Dec 1999 |
5.95%
43 out of 723 |
-6.41%
Sep 2000 - Aug 2011 |
+7.87% |
+17.68%
Jan 1989 - Dec 1999 |
18.26%
132 out of 723 |
-1.75%
Nov 2000 - Oct 2012 |
+10.67% |
+21.52%
Jan 1988 - Dec 1999 |
3.52%
25 out of 711 |
-3.83%
Nov 2000 - Oct 2012 |
+8.16% |
+18.47%
Jan 1988 - Dec 1999 |
17.02%
121 out of 711 |
-0.64%
Sep 2000 - Aug 2013 |
+10.31% |
+20.43%
Dec 1987 - Nov 2000 |
1.00%
7 out of 699 |
-2.65%
Sep 2000 - Aug 2013 |
+7.82% |
+17.44%
Dec 1987 - Nov 2000 |
13.59%
95 out of 699 |
+0.72%
May 2000 - Apr 2014 |
+10.12% |
+17.93%
Oct 1986 - Sep 2000 |
0.00%
0 out of 687 |
-1.71%
Dec 1964 - Nov 1978 |
+7.45% |
+15.18%
Oct 1986 - Sep 2000 |
10.04%
69 out of 687 |
+2.10%
Sep 2000 - Aug 2015 |
+9.80% |
+18.42%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1997 |
0.00%
0 out of 675 |
-0.96%
Nov 1964 - Oct 1979 |
+7.17% |
+15.70%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1997 |
4.15%
28 out of 675 |
+2.64%
May 2000 - Apr 2016 |
+9.78% |
+18.39%
Apr 1982 - Mar 1998 |
0.00%
0 out of 663 |
-0.35%
Mar 1962 - Feb 1978 |
+6.79% |
+15.62%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1998 |
1.06%
7 out of 663 |
+3.04%
Sep 2000 - Aug 2017 |
+9.75% |
+18.89%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1999 |
0.00%
0 out of 651 |
-0.32%
Dec 1961 - Nov 1978 |
+6.54% |
+16.33%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1999 |
0.31%
2 out of 651 |
+3.60%
Apr 2000 - Mar 2018 |
+9.44% |
+19.39%
Apr 1980 - Mar 1998 |
0.00%
0 out of 639 |
+0.44%
Jan 1962 - Dec 1979 |
+6.14% |
+16.52%
May 1982 - Apr 2000 |
0.00%
0 out of 639 |
+4.03%
Jan 2000 - Dec 2018 |
+9.33% |
+19.51%
Jul 1980 - Jun 1999 |
0.00%
0 out of 627 |
+0.86%
Dec 1959 - Nov 1978 |
+6.08% |
+16.50%
Jul 1980 - Jun 1999 |
0.00%
0 out of 627 |
+4.00%
Apr 2000 - Mar 2020 |
+9.32% |
+19.99%
Apr 1980 - Mar 2000 |
0.00%
0 out of 615 |
+1.27%
Aug 1959 - Jul 1979 |
+6.14% |
+16.94%
Apr 1980 - Mar 2000 |
0.00%
0 out of 615 |
+6.83%
Mar 1985 - Feb 2010 |
+9.68% |
+18.24%
Jan 1975 - Dec 1999 |
0.00%
0 out of 555 |
+3.56%
Aug 1955 - Jul 1980 |
+6.46% |
+14.84%
Jan 1975 - Dec 1999 |
0.00%
0 out of 555 |
+8.80%
Feb 1961 - Jan 1991 |
+10.39% |
+14.55%
Jul 1970 - Jun 2000 |
0.00%
0 out of 495 |
+5.15%
Feb 1961 - Jan 1991 |
+7.66% |
+10.78%
Jul 1970 - Jun 2000 |
0.00%
0 out of 495 |
iShares Core S&P 500 (SXR8.DE) ETF: Historical Returns