When holding the iShares Euro Government Bond 0-1yr (EUN6.DE) ETF, how long should you stay invested to have high probability to achieve a positive return?
Over the selected period (~44 years), the longest duration with a negative return was 200 months (from November 2006 to June 2023).
This indicates that, within the same timeframe, any rolling period of 201 months or more has consistently resulted in a positive return.
Understanding this metric is crucial as it highlights the importance of a safe investment horizon. Knowing the minimum duration required to likely see positive returns helps investors set realistic expectations and reinforces the strategy of staying invested through market cycles. This approach can mitigate the emotional reactions to short-term market fluctuations and enhance the likelihood of achieving financial goals.
iShares Euro Government Bond 0-1yr (EUN6.DE) ETF: Historical Returns
Previous vs subsequent Returns
Is there a correlation between past and future returns over all 10-year rolling periods?
The following chart illustrates the relationship between past returns (x-axis) and subsequent returns (y-axis).
Data points are aggregated to show occurrences, and you can zoom in by clicking or drawing over the desired area.
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As of Sep 30, 2024, the annualized return of the previous 10 years has been 0.06%.
Rolling Returns
A rolling return is a measure of investment performance that calculates the return of an investment over a set period of time, with the starting date rolling forward. This approach can provide a more accurate representation of the investment's historical performance and helps investors to evaluate the investment's consistency over time.
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Rolling Period Analysis
By selecting the 'Rolling Period', the chart and data will update. To study a different date range, change the simulation settings.
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Worst | Median | Best | Negative Periods |
---|---|---|---|
-4.12%
May 2008 - Apr 2009 |
+2.55% |
+14.42%
Nov 1981 - Oct 1982 |
22.31%
116 out of 520 |
-10.63%
Nov 2021 - Oct 2022 |
+0.46% |
+10.21%
Aug 1985 - Jul 1986 |
44.81%
233 out of 520 |
-2.05%
May 2007 - Apr 2009 |
+2.60% |
+10.95%
Sep 1980 - Aug 1982 |
22.44%
114 out of 508 |
-7.73%
Dec 2020 - Nov 2022 |
+0.39% |
+6.60%
May 1995 - Apr 1997 |
43.90%
223 out of 508 |
-0.84%
Oct 2019 - Sep 2022 |
+2.79% |
+8.52%
Mar 1989 - Feb 1992 |
24.40%
121 out of 496 |
-5.56%
Oct 2020 - Sep 2023 |
+0.49% |
+6.25%
Sep 1983 - Aug 1986 |
44.56%
221 out of 496 |
-0.76%
Nov 2018 - Oct 2022 |
+2.75% |
+8.41%
Nov 1987 - Oct 1991 |
20.04%
97 out of 484 |
-4.55%
Mar 2019 - Feb 2023 |
+0.54% |
+5.75%
Jan 1983 - Dec 1986 |
44.63%
216 out of 484 |
-0.75%
Oct 2017 - Sep 2022 |
+2.77% |
+7.89%
Nov 1987 - Oct 1992 |
16.53%
78 out of 472 |
-4.03%
Nov 2017 - Oct 2022 |
+0.54% |
+5.18%
Aug 1985 - Jul 1990 |
43.01%
203 out of 472 |
-0.73%
Oct 2016 - Sep 2022 |
+2.70% |
+7.69%
Nov 1987 - Oct 1993 |
16.09%
74 out of 460 |
-3.70%
Nov 2016 - Oct 2022 |
+0.49% |
+4.83%
Sep 1983 - Aug 1989 |
44.13%
203 out of 460 |
-0.68%
Oct 2015 - Sep 2022 |
+2.67% |
+7.10%
Nov 1987 - Oct 1994 |
14.73%
66 out of 448 |
-3.49%
Mar 2016 - Feb 2023 |
+0.53% |
+4.76%
Aug 1983 - Jul 1990 |
44.64%
200 out of 448 |
-0.61%
Oct 2014 - Sep 2022 |
+2.66% |
+6.81%
May 1988 - Apr 1996 |
13.53%
59 out of 436 |
-3.07%
Mar 2015 - Feb 2023 |
+0.57% |
+4.52%
May 1983 - Apr 1991 |
45.64%
199 out of 436 |
-0.52%
Nov 2013 - Oct 2022 |
+2.73% |
+6.98%
Nov 1987 - Oct 1996 |
12.50%
53 out of 424 |
-2.74%
Sep 2014 - Aug 2023 |
+0.74% |
+4.56%
Feb 1983 - Jan 1992 |
46.23%
196 out of 424 |
-0.45%
Dec 2012 - Nov 2022 |
+2.76% |
+6.81%
May 1981 - Apr 1991 |
12.38%
51 out of 412 |
-2.48%
Mar 2013 - Feb 2023 |
+0.81% |
+4.26%
Jul 1983 - Jun 1993 |
46.60%
192 out of 412 |
-0.33%
Mar 2012 - Feb 2023 |
+2.71% |
+6.97%
Feb 1981 - Jan 1992 |
13.75%
55 out of 400 |
-2.35%
Mar 2012 - Feb 2023 |
+0.72% |
+4.31%
Jan 1983 - Dec 1993 |
47.00%
188 out of 400 |
-0.16%
Mar 2011 - Feb 2023 |
+2.75% |
+6.97%
Jul 1980 - Jun 1992 |
12.89%
50 out of 388 |
-2.24%
Sep 2011 - Aug 2023 |
+0.64% |
+4.04%
Jul 1981 - Jun 1993 |
45.10%
175 out of 388 |
-0.17%
Sep 2008 - Aug 2021 |
+2.45% |
+6.92%
Jul 1980 - Jun 1993 |
9.04%
34 out of 376 |
-2.20%
Mar 2010 - Feb 2023 |
+0.54% |
+3.98%
Feb 1981 - Jan 1994 |
44.41%
167 out of 376 |
-0.23%
Sep 2008 - Aug 2022 |
+2.74% |
+6.66%
Jul 1980 - Jun 1994 |
6.32%
23 out of 364 |
-2.11%
Oct 2009 - Sep 2023 |
+0.83% |
+3.98%
Jan 1983 - Dec 1996 |
44.51%
162 out of 364 |
-0.25%
Nov 2007 - Oct 2022 |
+2.75% |
+6.55%
May 1981 - Apr 1996 |
6.82%
24 out of 352 |
-2.25%
Nov 2007 - Oct 2022 |
+0.75% |
+3.88%
Jan 1983 - Dec 1997 |
42.61%
150 out of 352 |
-0.15%
Jul 2007 - Jun 2023 |
+2.67% |
+6.57%
Jul 1980 - Jun 1996 |
5.88%
20 out of 340 |
-2.19%
Jul 2007 - Jun 2023 |
+0.71% |
+3.81%
Jan 1983 - Dec 1998 |
41.18%
140 out of 340 |
+0.03%
Mar 2006 - Feb 2023 |
+2.70% |
+6.48%
Jul 1980 - Jun 1997 |
0.00%
0 out of 328 |
-2.03%
Oct 2006 - Sep 2023 |
+0.69% |
+3.69%
Apr 1981 - Mar 1998 |
40.55%
133 out of 328 |
+0.14%
Mar 2005 - Feb 2023 |
+2.66% |
+6.33%
Jul 1980 - Jun 1998 |
0.00%
0 out of 316 |
-1.91%
Sep 2005 - Aug 2023 |
+0.63% |
+3.63%
Feb 1981 - Jan 1999 |
37.66%
119 out of 316 |
+0.23%
Mar 2004 - Feb 2023 |
+2.81% |
+6.15%
Jul 1980 - Jun 1999 |
0.00%
0 out of 304 |
-1.82%
Oct 2004 - Sep 2023 |
+0.68% |
+3.47%
Jul 1980 - Jun 1999 |
35.20%
107 out of 304 |
+0.33%
Mar 2003 - Feb 2023 |
+2.77% |
+5.98%
Jul 1980 - Jun 2000 |
0.00%
0 out of 292 |
-1.75%
Sep 2003 - Aug 2023 |
+0.65% |
+3.37%
Feb 1981 - Jan 2001 |
33.22%
97 out of 292 |
+0.87%
Jun 1999 - May 2024 |
+3.03% |
+5.31%
Jul 1980 - Jun 2005 |
0.00%
0 out of 232 |
-1.23%
Jun 1999 - May 2024 |
+0.87% |
+2.75%
Feb 1981 - Jan 2006 |
22.84%
53 out of 232 |
+1.48%
Feb 1994 - Jan 2024 |
+3.06% |
+4.52%
Jul 1980 - Jun 2010 |
0.00%
0 out of 172 |
-0.57%
May 1994 - Apr 2024 |
+0.99% |
+2.07%
Jul 1980 - Jun 2010 |
19.19%
33 out of 172 |
iShares Euro Government Bond 0-1yr (EUN6.DE) ETF: Historical Returns