When holding the iShares Euro Inflation Linked Government Bond (IBCI.DE) ETF, how long should you stay invested to have high probability to achieve a positive return?
Over the selected period (~35 years), the longest duration with a negative return was 60 months (from April 2015 to March 2020).
This indicates that, within the same timeframe, any rolling period of 61 months or more has consistently resulted in a positive return.
Understanding this metric is crucial as it highlights the importance of a safe investment horizon. Knowing the minimum duration required to likely see positive returns helps investors set realistic expectations and reinforces the strategy of staying invested through market cycles. This approach can mitigate the emotional reactions to short-term market fluctuations and enhance the likelihood of achieving financial goals.
iShares Euro Inflation Linked Government Bond (IBCI.DE) ETF: Historical Returns
Previous vs subsequent Returns
Is there a correlation between past and future returns over all 10-year rolling periods?
The following chart illustrates the relationship between past returns (x-axis) and subsequent returns (y-axis).
Data points are aggregated to show occurrences, and you can zoom in by clicking or drawing over the desired area.
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As of Aug 31, 2024, the annualized return of the previous 10 years has been 1.21%.
Rolling Returns
A rolling return is a measure of investment performance that calculates the return of an investment over a set period of time, with the starting date rolling forward. This approach can provide a more accurate representation of the investment's historical performance and helps investors to evaluate the investment's consistency over time.
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Rolling Period Analysis
By selecting the 'Rolling Period', the chart and data will update. To study a different date range, change the simulation settings.
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Worst | Median | Best | Negative Periods |
---|---|---|---|
-9.29%
Oct 2021 - Sep 2022 |
+5.13% |
+22.93%
Dec 2011 - Nov 2012 |
18.14%
74 out of 408 |
-17.48%
Oct 2021 - Sep 2022 |
+2.68% |
+20.29%
Dec 2011 - Nov 2012 |
29.66%
121 out of 408 |
-4.08%
Oct 2021 - Sep 2023 |
+4.43% |
+12.50%
Apr 2002 - Mar 2004 |
10.10%
40 out of 396 |
-10.43%
Oct 2021 - Sep 2023 |
+2.92% |
+10.26%
Apr 2002 - Mar 2004 |
20.45%
81 out of 396 |
-1.33%
Oct 2019 - Sep 2022 |
+4.54% |
+11.29%
Feb 2002 - Jan 2005 |
3.91%
15 out of 384 |
-6.28%
Aug 2021 - Jul 2024 |
+2.66% |
+9.12%
Feb 2002 - Jan 2005 |
14.58%
56 out of 384 |
-0.65%
Oct 2019 - Sep 2023 |
+4.54% |
+10.09%
Aug 2001 - Jul 2005 |
0.54%
2 out of 372 |
-4.71%
Oct 2019 - Sep 2023 |
+2.82% |
+7.83%
Aug 2001 - Jul 2005 |
12.90%
48 out of 372 |
-0.20%
Apr 2015 - Mar 2020 |
+4.78% |
+9.74%
Feb 2000 - Jan 2005 |
0.28%
1 out of 360 |
-3.38%
Sep 2019 - Aug 2024 |
+2.95% |
+7.50%
Feb 2000 - Jan 2005 |
8.89%
32 out of 360 |
+0.34%
Oct 2016 - Sep 2022 |
+4.75% |
+8.69%
Feb 2000 - Jan 2006 |
0.00%
0 out of 348 |
-2.59%
Nov 2017 - Oct 2023 |
+2.96% |
+6.41%
Feb 2000 - Jan 2006 |
9.20%
32 out of 348 |
+0.50%
Oct 2016 - Sep 2023 |
+4.87% |
+8.29%
Jul 1990 - Jun 1997 |
0.00%
0 out of 336 |
-2.51%
Oct 2016 - Sep 2023 |
+3.06% |
+5.54%
Sep 1998 - Aug 2005 |
8.33%
28 out of 336 |
+0.85%
Oct 2014 - Sep 2022 |
+4.80% |
+7.74%
Jul 1990 - Jun 1998 |
0.00%
0 out of 324 |
-1.83%
Jul 2016 - Jun 2024 |
+3.09% |
+5.40%
Mar 1995 - Feb 2003 |
8.02%
26 out of 324 |
+0.91%
Oct 2014 - Sep 2023 |
+4.83% |
+7.46%
Sep 1996 - Aug 2005 |
0.00%
0 out of 312 |
-1.55%
May 2015 - Apr 2024 |
+3.02% |
+5.47%
Sep 1996 - Aug 2005 |
7.37%
23 out of 312 |
+1.21%
Sep 2014 - Aug 2024 |
+5.06% |
+7.50%
Jul 1995 - Jun 2005 |
0.00%
0 out of 300 |
-1.16%
Sep 2014 - Aug 2024 |
+2.92% |
+5.48%
Jul 1995 - Jun 2005 |
7.33%
22 out of 300 |
+1.59%
May 2013 - Apr 2024 |
+5.20% |
+7.19%
Sep 1994 - Aug 2005 |
0.00%
0 out of 288 |
-0.55%
May 2013 - Apr 2024 |
+3.03% |
+5.14%
Sep 1994 - Aug 2005 |
4.17%
12 out of 288 |
+2.11%
Sep 2012 - Aug 2024 |
+5.24% |
+7.22%
Sep 1993 - Aug 2005 |
0.00%
0 out of 276 |
-0.02%
Sep 2012 - Aug 2024 |
+3.13% |
+5.09%
Sep 1993 - Aug 2005 |
0.36%
1 out of 276 |
+2.07%
Oct 2010 - Sep 2023 |
+5.30% |
+7.45%
Mar 1990 - Feb 2003 |
0.00%
0 out of 264 |
-0.14%
Oct 2010 - Sep 2023 |
+3.21% |
+5.14%
Sep 1992 - Aug 2005 |
0.76%
2 out of 264 |
+2.08%
Oct 2009 - Sep 2023 |
+5.14% |
+7.52%
Jan 1991 - Dec 2004 |
0.00%
0 out of 252 |
-0.11%
Oct 2009 - Sep 2023 |
+3.21% |
+5.03%
Jan 1991 - Dec 2004 |
1.19%
3 out of 252 |
+2.34%
Sep 2009 - Aug 2024 |
+5.14% |
+7.62%
Jul 1990 - Jun 2005 |
0.00%
0 out of 240 |
+0.17%
Sep 2009 - Aug 2024 |
+3.18% |
+5.07%
Jul 1990 - Jun 2005 |
0.00%
0 out of 240 |
+2.51%
Oct 2006 - Sep 2022 |
+5.17% |
+7.27%
Mar 1990 - Feb 2006 |
0.00%
0 out of 228 |
+0.47%
Nov 2007 - Oct 2023 |
+3.21% |
+4.76%
Mar 1990 - Feb 2006 |
0.00%
0 out of 228 |
+2.28%
Oct 2005 - Sep 2022 |
+5.11% |
+6.79%
Mar 1990 - Feb 2007 |
0.00%
0 out of 216 |
+0.30%
Oct 2005 - Sep 2022 |
+3.18% |
+4.32%
Mar 1990 - Feb 2007 |
0.00%
0 out of 216 |
+2.23%
Oct 2005 - Sep 2023 |
+4.96% |
+6.73%
Mar 1990 - Feb 2008 |
0.00%
0 out of 204 |
+0.13%
Oct 2005 - Sep 2023 |
+3.13% |
+4.21%
Mar 1990 - Feb 2008 |
0.00%
0 out of 204 |
+2.37%
Sep 2005 - Aug 2024 |
+4.88% |
+6.47%
Oct 1990 - Sep 2009 |
0.00%
0 out of 192 |
+0.26%
Sep 2005 - Aug 2024 |
+3.08% |
+4.13%
Oct 1990 - Sep 2009 |
0.00%
0 out of 192 |
+2.81%
Sep 2004 - Aug 2024 |
+4.75% |
+6.45%
Apr 1990 - Mar 2010 |
0.00%
0 out of 180 |
+0.69%
Sep 2004 - Aug 2024 |
+3.05% |
+4.04%
Apr 1990 - Mar 2010 |
0.00%
0 out of 180 |
+3.71%
Jul 1999 - Jun 2024 |
+4.69% |
+6.10%
Apr 1990 - Mar 2015 |
0.00%
0 out of 120 |
+1.54%
Jul 1999 - Jun 2024 |
+2.96% |
+3.90%
Mar 1990 - Feb 2015 |
0.00%
0 out of 120 |
+4.04%
Mar 1994 - Feb 2024 |
+4.90% |
+5.33%
Mar 1990 - Feb 2020 |
0.00%
0 out of 60 |
+1.97%
Mar 1994 - Feb 2024 |
+2.94% |
+3.32%
Mar 1990 - Feb 2020 |
0.00%
0 out of 60 |
iShares Euro Inflation Linked Government Bond (IBCI.DE) ETF: Historical Returns