When holding the iShares JP Morgan USD Em Mkts Bd (EMB) to EUR Hedged ETF, how long should you stay invested to have high probability to achieve a positive return?
Over the selected period (~40 years), the longest duration with a negative return was 133 months (from October 2012 to October 2023).
This indicates that, within the same timeframe, any rolling period of 134 months or more has consistently resulted in a positive return.
Understanding this metric is crucial as it highlights the importance of a safe investment horizon. Knowing the minimum duration required to likely see positive returns helps investors set realistic expectations and reinforces the strategy of staying invested through market cycles. This approach can mitigate the emotional reactions to short-term market fluctuations and enhance the likelihood of achieving financial goals.
iShares JP Morgan USD Em Mkts Bd (EMB) to EUR Hedged ETF: Historical Returns
Previous vs subsequent Returns
Is there a correlation between past and future returns over all 10-year rolling periods?
The following chart illustrates the relationship between past returns (x-axis) and subsequent returns (y-axis).
Data points are aggregated to show occurrences, and you can zoom in by clicking or drawing over the desired area.
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As of Sep 30, 2024, the annualized return of the previous 10 years has been 1.51%.
Rolling Returns
A rolling return is a measure of investment performance that calculates the return of an investment over a set period of time, with the starting date rolling forward. This approach can provide a more accurate representation of the investment's historical performance and helps investors to evaluate the investment's consistency over time.
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Rolling Period Analysis
By selecting the 'Rolling Period', the chart and data will update. To study a different date range, change the simulation settings.
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Worst | Median | Best | Negative Periods |
---|---|---|---|
-28.97%
Sep 1997 - Aug 1998 |
+8.77% |
+48.68%
Nov 2008 - Oct 2009 |
20.82%
97 out of 466 |
-32.93%
Nov 2021 - Oct 2022 |
+6.73% |
+48.86%
Nov 2008 - Oct 2009 |
24.89%
116 out of 466 |
-12.54%
Oct 2020 - Sep 2022 |
+7.50% |
+36.18%
Mar 1995 - Feb 1997 |
12.33%
56 out of 454 |
-18.40%
Nov 2020 - Oct 2022 |
+5.40% |
+33.44%
Apr 1995 - Mar 1997 |
17.84%
81 out of 454 |
-8.49%
Nov 2019 - Oct 2022 |
+7.43% |
+30.51%
Apr 1995 - Mar 1998 |
8.82%
39 out of 442 |
-12.60%
Nov 2019 - Oct 2022 |
+5.90% |
+28.32%
Apr 1995 - Mar 1998 |
11.31%
50 out of 442 |
-5.08%
Nov 2019 - Oct 2023 |
+8.65% |
+23.91%
Jun 1999 - May 2003 |
7.67%
33 out of 430 |
-8.95%
Nov 2019 - Oct 2023 |
+6.44% |
+21.27%
Jun 1999 - May 2003 |
10.47%
45 out of 430 |
-4.58%
Nov 2017 - Oct 2022 |
+9.09% |
+24.38%
Sep 1998 - Aug 2003 |
7.18%
30 out of 418 |
-7.75%
Nov 2017 - Oct 2022 |
+6.84% |
+22.03%
Sep 1998 - Aug 2003 |
8.61%
36 out of 418 |
-3.33%
Oct 2016 - Sep 2022 |
+9.33% |
+22.81%
Sep 1998 - Aug 2004 |
6.40%
26 out of 406 |
-6.05%
Nov 2017 - Oct 2023 |
+7.07% |
+20.40%
Sep 1998 - Aug 2004 |
7.88%
32 out of 406 |
-1.92%
Oct 2016 - Sep 2023 |
+10.04% |
+21.79%
Oct 1990 - Sep 1997 |
5.58%
22 out of 394 |
-4.85%
Oct 2016 - Sep 2023 |
+7.52% |
+19.22%
Sep 1998 - Aug 2005 |
8.12%
32 out of 394 |
-1.28%
Nov 2014 - Oct 2022 |
+10.99% |
+19.64%
Sep 1998 - Aug 2006 |
2.88%
11 out of 382 |
-3.58%
Nov 2014 - Oct 2022 |
+8.54% |
+17.22%
Sep 1998 - Aug 2006 |
7.85%
30 out of 382 |
-0.51%
Nov 2014 - Oct 2023 |
+11.29% |
+19.97%
Apr 1995 - Mar 2004 |
1.62%
6 out of 370 |
-2.88%
Nov 2014 - Oct 2023 |
+8.84% |
+17.77%
Apr 1995 - Mar 2004 |
8.38%
31 out of 370 |
-0.76%
Nov 2012 - Oct 2022 |
+12.12% |
+18.62%
Apr 1995 - Mar 2005 |
0.84%
3 out of 358 |
-2.72%
Nov 2012 - Oct 2022 |
+9.72% |
+16.41%
Apr 1995 - Mar 2005 |
8.10%
29 out of 358 |
-0.17%
Nov 2012 - Oct 2023 |
+12.27% |
+18.06%
Apr 1995 - Mar 2006 |
0.29%
1 out of 346 |
-2.22%
Nov 2012 - Oct 2023 |
+9.81% |
+15.84%
Apr 1995 - Mar 2006 |
8.09%
28 out of 346 |
+0.87%
Nov 2010 - Oct 2022 |
+12.03% |
+17.75%
Jul 1991 - Jun 2003 |
0.00%
0 out of 334 |
-1.24%
Nov 2010 - Oct 2022 |
+9.62% |
+15.10%
Jul 1991 - Jun 2003 |
7.49%
25 out of 334 |
+1.25%
Nov 2010 - Oct 2023 |
+11.69% |
+17.84%
Oct 1990 - Sep 2003 |
0.00%
0 out of 322 |
-0.93%
Nov 2010 - Oct 2023 |
+9.50% |
+15.10%
Oct 1990 - Sep 2003 |
2.48%
8 out of 322 |
+2.32%
Nov 2009 - Oct 2023 |
+11.59% |
+17.48%
Oct 1990 - Sep 2004 |
0.00%
0 out of 310 |
+0.14%
Nov 2009 - Oct 2023 |
+9.26% |
+14.77%
Oct 1990 - Sep 2004 |
0.00%
0 out of 310 |
+2.66%
Nov 2007 - Oct 2022 |
+11.87% |
+17.30%
Oct 1990 - Sep 2005 |
0.00%
0 out of 298 |
+0.61%
Nov 2007 - Oct 2022 |
+9.52% |
+14.58%
Oct 1990 - Sep 2005 |
0.00%
0 out of 298 |
+2.86%
Nov 2007 - Oct 2023 |
+12.13% |
+16.49%
Oct 1990 - Sep 2006 |
0.00%
0 out of 286 |
+0.75%
Nov 2007 - Oct 2023 |
+9.80% |
+13.83%
Oct 1990 - Sep 2006 |
0.00%
0 out of 286 |
+3.09%
Nov 2006 - Oct 2023 |
+12.20% |
+15.94%
May 1990 - Apr 2007 |
0.00%
0 out of 274 |
+0.95%
Nov 2006 - Oct 2023 |
+9.92% |
+13.25%
Oct 1990 - Sep 2007 |
0.00%
0 out of 274 |
+3.35%
Oct 2005 - Sep 2023 |
+12.45% |
+15.22%
May 1990 - Apr 2008 |
0.00%
0 out of 262 |
+1.22%
Oct 2005 - Sep 2023 |
+10.30% |
+12.47%
Apr 1989 - Mar 2007 |
0.00%
0 out of 262 |
+3.76%
Nov 2004 - Oct 2023 |
+12.59% |
+15.01%
Oct 1990 - Sep 2009 |
0.00%
0 out of 250 |
+1.61%
Nov 2004 - Oct 2023 |
+10.37% |
+12.48%
Oct 1990 - Sep 2009 |
0.00%
0 out of 250 |
+4.24%
Nov 2003 - Oct 2023 |
+12.04% |
+14.98%
Oct 1990 - Sep 2010 |
0.00%
0 out of 238 |
+2.07%
Nov 2003 - Oct 2023 |
+9.95% |
+12.47%
Oct 1990 - Sep 2010 |
0.00%
0 out of 238 |
+6.35%
Oct 1997 - Sep 2022 |
+11.62% |
+13.29%
Jan 1988 - Dec 2012 |
0.00%
0 out of 178 |
+4.29%
Oct 1997 - Sep 2022 |
+9.59% |
+10.68%
Jan 1988 - Dec 2012 |
0.00%
0 out of 178 |
+7.94%
Nov 1993 - Oct 2023 |
+11.00% |
+11.72%
Mar 1985 - Feb 2015 |
0.00%
0 out of 118 |
+5.74%
Nov 1993 - Oct 2023 |
+8.81% |
+9.56%
Mar 1985 - Feb 2015 |
0.00%
0 out of 118 |
iShares JP Morgan USD Em Mkts Bd (EMB) to EUR Hedged ETF: Historical Returns