iShares JP Morgan USD Em Mkts Bd (EMB) to EUR: Rolling Returns

Time Period: from January 1985 to September 2024 (~40 years)
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This asset allocation includes ETFs not denominated in EUR. Returns are calculated using exchange rates or, if applicable, interest rate differentials for currency hedging.

When holding the iShares JP Morgan USD Em Mkts Bd (EMB) to EUR ETF, how long should you stay invested to have high probability to achieve a positive return?

Over the selected period (~40 years), the longest duration with a negative return was 90 months (from March 1985 to August 1992).

This indicates that, within the same timeframe, any rolling period of 91 months or more has consistently resulted in a positive return.

Understanding this metric is crucial as it highlights the importance of a safe investment horizon. Knowing the minimum duration required to likely see positive returns helps investors set realistic expectations and reinforces the strategy of staying invested through market cycles. This approach can mitigate the emotional reactions to short-term market fluctuations and enhance the likelihood of achieving financial goals.

Previous vs subsequent Returns

Is there a correlation between past and future returns over all 10-year rolling periods?

The following chart illustrates the relationship between past returns (x-axis) and subsequent returns (y-axis).

Data points are aggregated to show occurrences, and you can zoom in by clicking or drawing over the desired area.

ISHARES JP MORGAN USD EM MKTS BD (EMB) TO EUR ETF
Previous vs Next Returns - 10 Years annualized
Time Period: 1 October 1994 - 30 September 2024 (30 Years)
Time Period: 1 January 1985 - 30 September 2024 (~40 years)

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As of Sep 30, 2024, the annualized return of the previous 10 years has been 4.14%.

Rolling Returns

A rolling return is a measure of investment performance that calculates the return of an investment over a set period of time, with the starting date rolling forward. This approach can provide a more accurate representation of the investment's historical performance and helps investors to evaluate the investment's consistency over time.

ISHARES JP MORGAN USD EM MKTS BD (EMB) TO EUR ETF
Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Returns - Inflation Adjusted
Time Period: 1 October 1994 - 30 September 2024 (30 Years)
Time Period: 1 January 1985 - 30 September 2024 (~40 years)
Euro Inflation Adjusted:

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Rolling Period Analysis

By selecting the 'Rolling Period', the chart and data will update. To study a different date range, change the simulation settings.

ISHARES JP MORGAN USD EM MKTS BD (EMB) TO EUR ETF
Rolling Returns Chart
Rolling Returns Chart - Inflation Adjusted
Time Period: 1 January 1985 - 30 September 2024 (~40 years)
Euro Inflation Adjusted:

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Swipe left to see all data
Worst Median Best Negative Periods
-30.81%
Sep 1997 - Aug 1998
+7.37% +70.21%
Aug 1996 - Jul 1997
34.33%
160 out of 466
-31.58%
Sep 1997 - Aug 1998
+4.88% +67.72%
Aug 1996 - Jul 1997
39.91%
186 out of 466
-15.11%
Jan 1986 - Dec 1987
+7.65% +52.38%
Aug 1995 - Jul 1997
21.15%
96 out of 454
-15.11%
Jan 1986 - Dec 1987
+6.10% +49.58%
Aug 1995 - Jul 1997
29.74%
135 out of 454
-11.36%
Jan 1985 - Dec 1987
+8.59% +41.32%
Apr 1995 - Mar 1998
10.86%
48 out of 442
-11.82%
Jan 1985 - Dec 1987
+6.45% +38.94%
Apr 1995 - Mar 1998
18.78%
83 out of 442
-4.40%
Mar 1985 - Feb 1989
+8.86% +27.07%
Sep 1998 - Aug 2002
7.91%
34 out of 430
-6.83%
Oct 2019 - Sep 2023
+6.87% +24.70%
Sep 1998 - Aug 2002
14.19%
61 out of 430
-3.66%
Sep 1985 - Aug 1990
+8.90% +28.87%
Apr 1995 - Mar 2000
3.83%
16 out of 418
-5.17%
Sep 1985 - Aug 1990
+6.96% +26.84%
Apr 1995 - Mar 2000
12.20%
51 out of 418
-3.39%
Feb 1985 - Jan 1991
+8.99% +27.87%
Apr 1995 - Mar 2001
1.97%
8 out of 406
-5.05%
Feb 1985 - Jan 1991
+6.97% +25.73%
Apr 1995 - Mar 2001
10.84%
44 out of 406
+0.14%
Nov 2016 - Oct 2023
+8.51% +28.51%
Apr 1995 - Mar 2002
0.00%
0 out of 394
-2.83%
Nov 2016 - Oct 2023
+6.34% +26.21%
Apr 1995 - Mar 2002
9.39%
37 out of 394
+1.18%
Apr 2015 - Mar 2023
+9.00% +23.36%
Apr 1995 - Mar 2003
0.00%
0 out of 382
-1.32%
Dec 2015 - Nov 2023
+7.30% +21.08%
Apr 1995 - Mar 2003
5.50%
21 out of 382
+2.19%
Apr 2015 - Mar 2024
+8.82% +21.78%
Apr 1995 - Mar 2004
0.00%
0 out of 370
-0.32%
Apr 2015 - Mar 2024
+6.79% +19.55%
Apr 1995 - Mar 2004
1.35%
5 out of 370
+2.19%
Apr 1985 - Mar 1995
+9.22% +20.45%
Nov 1990 - Oct 2000
0.00%
0 out of 358
-0.18%
Apr 1985 - Mar 1995
+7.33% +17.88%
Mar 1992 - Feb 2002
0.28%
1 out of 358
+2.77%
Nov 2012 - Oct 2023
+9.28% +21.30%
Feb 1991 - Jan 2002
0.00%
0 out of 346
+0.66%
Nov 2012 - Oct 2023
+7.30% +18.50%
Feb 1991 - Jan 2002
0.00%
0 out of 346
+3.51%
Aug 2012 - Jul 2024
+9.87% +19.15%
May 1990 - Apr 2002
0.00%
0 out of 334
+1.31%
Aug 2012 - Jul 2024
+7.68% +16.21%
May 1990 - Apr 2002
0.00%
0 out of 334
+3.96%
Sep 2010 - Aug 2023
+10.11% +18.38%
Nov 1990 - Oct 2003
0.00%
0 out of 322
+1.71%
Sep 2010 - Aug 2023
+7.75% +15.67%
Nov 1990 - Oct 2003
0.00%
0 out of 322
+4.47%
Sep 2010 - Aug 2024
+10.46% +17.48%
Apr 1988 - Mar 2002
0.00%
0 out of 310
+2.21%
Sep 2010 - Aug 2024
+8.28% +14.57%
Apr 1988 - Mar 2002
0.00%
0 out of 310
+5.59%
Jul 2007 - Jun 2022
+10.95% +17.39%
Dec 1990 - Nov 2005
0.00%
0 out of 298
+3.62%
Nov 2007 - Oct 2022
+8.82% +14.71%
Dec 1990 - Nov 2005
0.00%
0 out of 298
+5.08%
Nov 2006 - Oct 2022
+11.61% +16.47%
Nov 1990 - Oct 2006
0.00%
0 out of 286
+2.95%
Nov 2006 - Oct 2022
+9.44% +13.85%
Nov 1990 - Oct 2006
0.00%
0 out of 286
+4.70%
Mar 2006 - Feb 2023
+11.77% +15.31%
Dec 1988 - Nov 2005
0.00%
0 out of 274
+2.59%
Mar 2006 - Feb 2023
+9.48% +12.70%
Aug 1995 - Jul 2012
0.00%
0 out of 274
+4.78%
Oct 2005 - Sep 2023
+11.78% +15.53%
Jan 1988 - Dec 2005
0.00%
0 out of 262
+2.63%
Oct 2005 - Sep 2023
+9.49% +12.75%
Jan 1988 - Dec 2005
0.00%
0 out of 262
+5.23%
Oct 2005 - Sep 2024
+11.75% +14.56%
Jan 1988 - Dec 2006
0.00%
0 out of 250
+3.08%
Oct 2005 - Sep 2024
+9.34% +11.84%
Jan 1988 - Dec 2006
0.00%
0 out of 250
+5.37%
Nov 2003 - Oct 2023
+11.66% +14.62%
Sep 1990 - Aug 2010
0.00%
0 out of 238
+3.18%
Nov 2003 - Oct 2023
+9.33% +12.50%
Apr 1995 - Mar 2015
0.00%
0 out of 238
+7.34%
Apr 1998 - Mar 2023
+11.21% +13.39%
Dec 1990 - Nov 2015
0.00%
0 out of 178
+5.18%
Apr 1998 - Mar 2023
+9.09% +11.13%
Dec 1990 - Nov 2015
0.00%
0 out of 178
+8.78%
Nov 1993 - Oct 2023
+10.83% +11.86%
Jan 1988 - Dec 2017
0.00%
0 out of 118
+6.57%
Nov 1993 - Oct 2023
+8.68% +9.65%
Nov 1990 - Oct 2020
0.00%
0 out of 118
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