When holding the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM) to EUR ETF, how long should you stay invested to have high probability to achieve a positive return?
Over the selected period (~49 years), the longest duration with a negative return was 148 months (from February 1976 to May 1988).
This indicates that, within the same timeframe, any rolling period of 149 months or more has consistently resulted in a positive return.
Understanding this metric is crucial as it highlights the importance of a safe investment horizon. Knowing the minimum duration required to likely see positive returns helps investors set realistic expectations and reinforces the strategy of staying invested through market cycles. This approach can mitigate the emotional reactions to short-term market fluctuations and enhance the likelihood of achieving financial goals.
iShares MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM) to EUR ETF: Historical Returns
Previous vs subsequent Returns
Is there a correlation between past and future returns over all 10-year rolling periods?
The following chart illustrates the relationship between past returns (x-axis) and subsequent returns (y-axis).
Data points are aggregated to show occurrences, and you can zoom in by clicking or drawing over the desired area.
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As of Sep 30, 2024, the annualized return of the previous 10 years has been 4.56%.
Rolling Returns
A rolling return is a measure of investment performance that calculates the return of an investment over a set period of time, with the starting date rolling forward. This approach can provide a more accurate representation of the investment's historical performance and helps investors to evaluate the investment's consistency over time.
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Rolling Period Analysis
By selecting the 'Rolling Period', the chart and data will update. To study a different date range, change the simulation settings.
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Worst | Median | Best | Negative Periods |
---|---|---|---|
-56.36%
Jan 1987 - Dec 1987 |
+7.69% |
+122.71%
Feb 1991 - Jan 1992 |
36.76%
211 out of 574 |
-56.80%
Jan 1987 - Dec 1987 |
+5.15% |
+113.87%
Feb 1991 - Jan 1992 |
40.42%
232 out of 574 |
-36.45%
Jan 1986 - Dec 1987 |
+5.10% |
+72.72%
Jan 1988 - Dec 1989 |
29.72%
167 out of 562 |
-36.45%
Jan 1986 - Dec 1987 |
+2.75% |
+68.58%
Jan 1988 - Dec 1989 |
39.15%
220 out of 562 |
-25.61%
Jan 1985 - Dec 1987 |
+5.52% |
+67.26%
Feb 1991 - Jan 1994 |
22.55%
124 out of 550 |
-25.99%
Jan 1985 - Dec 1987 |
+3.48% |
+61.49%
Feb 1991 - Jan 1994 |
34.36%
189 out of 550 |
-14.51%
Sep 1994 - Aug 1998 |
+5.31% |
+53.30%
Jan 1988 - Dec 1991 |
15.06%
81 out of 538 |
-16.05%
Sep 1994 - Aug 1998 |
+3.29% |
+48.37%
Jan 1988 - Dec 1991 |
28.25%
152 out of 538 |
-10.62%
Feb 1994 - Jan 1999 |
+5.81% |
+50.61%
Jan 1989 - Dec 1993 |
12.55%
66 out of 526 |
-12.19%
Feb 1994 - Jan 1999 |
+3.81% |
+45.40%
Jan 1989 - Dec 1993 |
27.19%
143 out of 526 |
-8.89%
Jan 1982 - Dec 1987 |
+6.05% |
+50.98%
Jan 1988 - Dec 1993 |
7.59%
39 out of 514 |
-10.49%
Jan 1982 - Dec 1987 |
+4.09% |
+46.17%
Jan 1988 - Dec 1993 |
19.26%
99 out of 514 |
-8.32%
Jan 1981 - Dec 1987 |
+6.45% |
+36.40%
Dec 1987 - Nov 1994 |
6.37%
32 out of 502 |
-10.53%
Jan 1981 - Dec 1987 |
+4.17% |
+32.18%
Dec 1987 - Nov 1994 |
15.94%
80 out of 502 |
-5.37%
Jan 1980 - Dec 1987 |
+7.21% |
+30.25%
Jan 1988 - Dec 1995 |
5.71%
28 out of 490 |
-7.99%
Jan 1980 - Dec 1987 |
+4.99% |
+26.31%
Jan 1988 - Dec 1995 |
13.88%
68 out of 490 |
-4.62%
Feb 1994 - Jan 2003 |
+6.92% |
+28.83%
Jan 1988 - Dec 1996 |
5.23%
25 out of 478 |
-6.53%
Jan 1979 - Dec 1987 |
+4.81% |
+25.08%
Jan 1988 - Dec 1996 |
9.83%
47 out of 478 |
-3.06%
Jan 1978 - Dec 1987 |
+7.28% |
+24.95%
Jan 1988 - Dec 1997 |
1.93%
9 out of 466 |
-5.95%
Jan 1978 - Dec 1987 |
+5.13% |
+21.50%
Jan 1988 - Dec 1997 |
8.58%
40 out of 466 |
-2.76%
Jan 1977 - Dec 1987 |
+8.04% |
+22.02%
Jan 1983 - Dec 1993 |
1.54%
7 out of 454 |
-5.68%
Jan 1977 - Dec 1987 |
+5.72% |
+19.21%
Jan 1983 - Dec 1993 |
5.51%
25 out of 454 |
-1.89%
Jan 1976 - Dec 1987 |
+8.03% |
+24.13%
Jan 1988 - Dec 1999 |
1.36%
6 out of 442 |
-4.88%
Jan 1976 - Dec 1987 |
+5.90% |
+21.02%
Jan 1988 - Dec 1999 |
3.85%
17 out of 442 |
+1.52%
Jan 1976 - Dec 1988 |
+8.58% |
+19.71%
Jan 1988 - Dec 2000 |
0.00%
0 out of 430 |
-1.49%
Jan 1976 - Dec 1988 |
+6.42% |
+16.71%
Jan 1988 - Dec 2000 |
1.16%
5 out of 430 |
+2.93%
Apr 2006 - Mar 2020 |
+8.94% |
+18.41%
Jan 1988 - Dec 2001 |
0.00%
0 out of 418 |
-0.06%
Oct 1976 - Sep 1990 |
+6.72% |
+15.49%
Jan 1988 - Dec 2001 |
0.24%
1 out of 418 |
+1.00%
Feb 1994 - Jan 2009 |
+9.37% |
+17.42%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1997 |
0.00%
0 out of 406 |
-0.97%
Feb 1994 - Jan 2009 |
+6.98% |
+14.72%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1997 |
0.99%
4 out of 406 |
+1.42%
Nov 2007 - Oct 2023 |
+9.08% |
+16.17%
Jan 1988 - Dec 2003 |
0.00%
0 out of 394 |
-0.66%
Nov 2007 - Oct 2023 |
+6.72% |
+13.35%
Jan 1988 - Dec 2003 |
0.25%
1 out of 394 |
+3.13%
Oct 2007 - Sep 2024 |
+8.61% |
+16.33%
Oct 1990 - Sep 2007 |
0.00%
0 out of 382 |
+1.01%
Oct 2007 - Sep 2024 |
+6.57% |
+13.68%
Oct 1990 - Sep 2007 |
0.00%
0 out of 382 |
+3.49%
Feb 2006 - Jan 2024 |
+8.77% |
+17.88%
Jan 1988 - Dec 2005 |
0.00%
0 out of 370 |
+1.39%
Feb 2006 - Jan 2024 |
+6.56% |
+15.05%
Jan 1988 - Dec 2005 |
0.00%
0 out of 370 |
+4.39%
Mar 1997 - Feb 2016 |
+8.87% |
+17.88%
Jan 1988 - Dec 2006 |
0.00%
0 out of 358 |
+2.42%
Feb 1994 - Jan 2013 |
+6.45% |
+15.08%
Jan 1988 - Dec 2006 |
0.00%
0 out of 358 |
+3.61%
Feb 1994 - Jan 2014 |
+8.71% |
+18.01%
Jan 1988 - Dec 2007 |
0.00%
0 out of 346 |
+1.65%
Feb 1994 - Jan 2014 |
+6.33% |
+15.17%
Jan 1988 - Dec 2007 |
0.00%
0 out of 346 |
+4.30%
Jan 1994 - Dec 2018 |
+8.74% |
+14.50%
Jan 1988 - Dec 2012 |
0.00%
0 out of 286 |
+2.49%
Jan 1994 - Dec 2018 |
+6.16% |
+11.86%
Jan 1988 - Dec 2012 |
0.00%
0 out of 286 |
+3.94%
Feb 1994 - Jan 2024 |
+9.28% |
+12.92%
Jan 1988 - Dec 2017 |
0.00%
0 out of 226 |
+1.87%
Feb 1994 - Jan 2024 |
+6.91% |
+10.63%
Jan 1988 - Dec 2017 |
0.00%
0 out of 226 |
iShares MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM) to EUR ETF: Historical Returns