When holding the iShares S&P 500 Consumer Discretionary (QDVK.DE) ETF, how long should you stay invested to have high probability to achieve a positive return?
Over the selected period (~26 years), the longest duration with a negative return was 141 months (from January 2000 to September 2011).
This indicates that, within the same timeframe, any rolling period of 142 months or more has consistently resulted in a positive return.
Understanding this metric is crucial as it highlights the importance of a safe investment horizon. Knowing the minimum duration required to likely see positive returns helps investors set realistic expectations and reinforces the strategy of staying invested through market cycles. This approach can mitigate the emotional reactions to short-term market fluctuations and enhance the likelihood of achieving financial goals.
iShares S&P 500 Consumer Discretionary (QDVK.DE) ETF: Historical Returns
Rolling Returns
A rolling return is a measure of investment performance that calculates the return of an investment over a set period of time, with the starting date rolling forward. This approach can provide a more accurate representation of the investment's historical performance and helps investors to evaluate the investment's consistency over time.
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Rolling Period Analysis
By selecting the 'Rolling Period', the chart and data will update. To study a different date range, change the simulation settings.
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Worst | Median | Best | Negative Periods |
---|---|---|---|
-39.37%
Mar 2002 - Feb 2003 |
+11.61% |
+66.34%
Apr 2009 - Mar 2010 |
23.83%
71 out of 298 |
-40.77%
Mar 2002 - Feb 2003 |
+9.66% |
+63.75%
Apr 2009 - Mar 2010 |
26.85%
80 out of 298 |
-29.83%
Mar 2007 - Feb 2009 |
+11.00% |
+46.01%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2011 |
22.38%
64 out of 286 |
-31.35%
Mar 2007 - Feb 2009 |
+8.42% |
+43.66%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2011 |
28.67%
82 out of 286 |
-20.04%
Mar 2006 - Feb 2009 |
+10.45% |
+34.98%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2012 |
25.91%
71 out of 274 |
-21.68%
Mar 2006 - Feb 2009 |
+8.29% |
+32.34%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2012 |
29.93%
82 out of 274 |
-13.07%
Mar 2005 - Feb 2009 |
+10.53% |
+31.70%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2013 |
27.86%
73 out of 262 |
-14.91%
Mar 2005 - Feb 2009 |
+7.60% |
+29.17%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2013 |
35.11%
92 out of 262 |
-10.63%
Mar 2004 - Feb 2009 |
+11.16% |
+30.50%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2014 |
22.00%
55 out of 250 |
-12.50%
Mar 2004 - Feb 2009 |
+7.49% |
+28.30%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2014 |
34.40%
86 out of 250 |
-8.30%
Apr 2002 - Mar 2008 |
+11.71% |
+32.37%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2015 |
18.07%
43 out of 238 |
-10.38%
Apr 2002 - Mar 2008 |
+8.36% |
+30.57%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2015 |
30.67%
73 out of 238 |
-11.28%
Mar 2002 - Feb 2009 |
+11.12% |
+27.61%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2016 |
14.16%
32 out of 226 |
-13.10%
Mar 2002 - Feb 2009 |
+8.03% |
+26.15%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2016 |
23.89%
54 out of 226 |
-7.86%
Mar 2001 - Feb 2009 |
+11.07% |
+26.57%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2017 |
14.95%
32 out of 214 |
-9.79%
Mar 2001 - Feb 2009 |
+8.77% |
+24.99%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2017 |
21.03%
45 out of 214 |
-6.83%
Apr 2000 - Mar 2009 |
+11.93% |
+24.13%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2018 |
18.81%
38 out of 202 |
-8.77%
Apr 2000 - Mar 2009 |
+10.11% |
+22.60%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2018 |
21.78%
44 out of 202 |
-4.80%
Mar 1999 - Feb 2009 |
+12.14% |
+22.96%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2019 |
14.21%
27 out of 190 |
-6.76%
Mar 1999 - Feb 2009 |
+10.45% |
+21.44%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2019 |
21.58%
41 out of 190 |
-0.71%
Jul 1999 - Jun 2010 |
+11.58% |
+21.66%
Feb 2009 - Jan 2020 |
1.69%
3 out of 178 |
-2.73%
Jul 1999 - Jun 2010 |
+9.91% |
+20.14%
Feb 2009 - Jan 2020 |
16.85%
30 out of 178 |
+0.76%
Jul 1999 - Jun 2011 |
+11.20% |
+22.42%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2021 |
0.00%
0 out of 166 |
-1.35%
Jul 1999 - Jun 2011 |
+9.61% |
+20.94%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2021 |
7.23%
12 out of 166 |
+2.36%
Jan 2000 - Dec 2012 |
+11.12% |
+22.19%
Jan 2009 - Dec 2021 |
0.00%
0 out of 154 |
+0.20%
Jan 2000 - Dec 2012 |
+9.43% |
+20.45%
Jan 2009 - Dec 2021 |
0.00%
0 out of 154 |
+3.98%
May 2000 - Apr 2014 |
+11.23% |
+18.99%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2023 |
0.00%
0 out of 142 |
+1.91%
May 2000 - Apr 2014 |
+9.54% |
+16.60%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2023 |
0.00%
0 out of 142 |
+4.61%
May 1999 - Apr 2014 |
+11.14% |
+19.63%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2024 |
0.00%
0 out of 130 |
+2.55%
May 1999 - Apr 2014 |
+9.40% |
+17.18%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2024 |
0.00%
0 out of 130 |
+6.22%
May 2000 - Apr 2016 |
+11.06% |
+16.60%
Jul 2008 - Jun 2024 |
0.00%
0 out of 118 |
+4.39%
May 2000 - Apr 2016 |
+9.19% |
+14.32%
Jul 2008 - Jun 2024 |
0.00%
0 out of 118 |
+6.56%
Jul 1999 - Jun 2016 |
+10.93% |
+13.54%
Dec 2004 - Nov 2021 |
0.00%
0 out of 106 |
+4.69%
Jul 1999 - Jun 2016 |
+8.79% |
+11.74%
Dec 2004 - Nov 2021 |
0.00%
0 out of 106 |
+6.82%
Apr 2000 - Mar 2018 |
+10.75% |
+12.85%
Jan 2004 - Dec 2021 |
0.00%
0 out of 94 |
+5.01%
Apr 2000 - Mar 2018 |
+8.58% |
+11.01%
Jan 2004 - Dec 2021 |
0.00%
0 out of 94 |
+6.69%
Jan 2000 - Dec 2018 |
+9.70% |
+12.93%
Jan 2003 - Dec 2021 |
0.00%
0 out of 82 |
+4.87%
Jan 2000 - Dec 2018 |
+7.84% |
+11.07%
Jan 2003 - Dec 2021 |
0.00%
0 out of 82 |
+6.88%
Apr 2000 - Mar 2020 |
+9.42% |
+11.61%
Oct 2004 - Sep 2024 |
0.00%
0 out of 70 |
+5.14%
Apr 2000 - Mar 2020 |
+7.62% |
+9.30%
Oct 2004 - Sep 2024 |
0.00%
0 out of 70 |
+8.60%
Jun 1999 - May 2024 |
+8.99% |
+9.47%
Oct 1999 - Sep 2024 |
0.00%
0 out of 10 |
+6.33%
Jun 1999 - May 2024 |
+6.77% |
+7.19%
Oct 1999 - Sep 2024 |
0.00%
0 out of 10 |
iShares S&P 500 Consumer Discretionary (QDVK.DE) ETF: Historical Returns