When holding the iShares S&P Mid-Cap 400 Growth (IJK) ETF, how long should you stay invested to have high probability to achieve a positive return?
Over the selected period (~98 years), the longest duration with a negative return was 231 months (from September 1929 to November 1948).
This indicates that, within the same timeframe, any rolling period of 232 months or more has consistently resulted in a positive return.
Understanding this metric is crucial as it highlights the importance of a safe investment horizon. Knowing the minimum duration required to likely see positive returns helps investors set realistic expectations and reinforces the strategy of staying invested through market cycles. This approach can mitigate the emotional reactions to short-term market fluctuations and enhance the likelihood of achieving financial goals.
iShares S&P Mid-Cap 400 Growth (IJK) ETF: Historical Returns
Previous vs subsequent Returns
Is there a correlation between past and future returns over all 10-year rolling periods?
The following chart illustrates the relationship between past returns (x-axis) and subsequent returns (y-axis).
Data points are aggregated to show occurrences, and you can zoom in by clicking or drawing over the desired area.
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As of Sep 30, 2024, the annualized return of the previous 10 years has been 10.38%.
Rolling Returns
A rolling return is a measure of investment performance that calculates the return of an investment over a set period of time, with the starting date rolling forward. This approach can provide a more accurate representation of the investment's historical performance and helps investors to evaluate the investment's consistency over time.
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Rolling Period Analysis
By selecting the 'Rolling Period', the chart and data will update. To study a different date range, change the simulation settings.
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Worst | Median | Best | Negative Periods |
---|---|---|---|
-69.06%
Jul 1931 - Jun 1932 |
+12.83% |
+156.52%
Jul 1932 - Jun 1933 |
26.16%
304 out of 1162 |
-65.65%
Jul 1931 - Jun 1932 |
+9.48% |
+174.70%
Jul 1932 - Jun 1933 |
32.01%
372 out of 1162 |
-56.91%
Jun 1930 - May 1932 |
+12.54% |
+60.86%
Jul 1932 - Jun 1934 |
18.52%
213 out of 1150 |
-52.15%
Jun 1930 - May 1932 |
+8.62% |
+62.06%
Jul 1932 - Jun 1934 |
25.57%
294 out of 1150 |
-46.94%
Jul 1929 - Jun 1932 |
+11.64% |
+47.09%
Mar 1933 - Feb 1936 |
16.17%
184 out of 1138 |
-42.73%
Jul 1929 - Jun 1932 |
+8.14% |
+43.07%
Mar 1933 - Feb 1936 |
21.62%
246 out of 1138 |
-32.80%
Jun 1928 - May 1932 |
+11.60% |
+43.28%
Jul 1932 - Jun 1936 |
14.48%
163 out of 1126 |
-28.87%
Jun 1928 - May 1932 |
+7.94% |
+42.76%
Jul 1932 - Jun 1936 |
21.49%
242 out of 1126 |
-22.36%
Jul 1927 - Jun 1932 |
+11.37% |
+35.88%
Jun 1932 - May 1937 |
12.30%
137 out of 1114 |
-18.38%
Jun 1927 - May 1932 |
+7.73% |
+34.53%
Jun 1932 - May 1937 |
17.06%
190 out of 1114 |
-14.67%
Apr 1929 - Mar 1935 |
+11.02% |
+25.05%
Oct 1974 - Sep 1980 |
10.89%
120 out of 1102 |
-17.12%
Oct 1968 - Sep 1974 |
+7.54% |
+23.44%
Jul 1932 - Jun 1938 |
14.16%
156 out of 1102 |
-9.15%
Apr 1928 - Mar 1935 |
+10.94% |
+22.66%
Apr 1980 - Mar 1987 |
9.72%
106 out of 1090 |
-14.16%
Oct 1967 - Sep 1974 |
+7.33% |
+20.87%
Jun 1932 - May 1939 |
14.40%
157 out of 1090 |
-9.14%
Apr 1930 - Mar 1938 |
+10.72% |
+21.91%
Mar 1979 - Feb 1987 |
8.72%
94 out of 1078 |
-9.40%
Oct 1966 - Sep 1974 |
+7.45% |
+18.37%
Sep 1992 - Aug 2000 |
14.19%
153 out of 1078 |
-9.25%
Apr 1929 - Mar 1938 |
+10.86% |
+22.75%
Oct 1974 - Sep 1983 |
6.19%
66 out of 1066 |
-9.31%
Oct 1965 - Sep 1974 |
+7.52% |
+17.80%
Mar 1991 - Feb 2000 |
13.41%
143 out of 1066 |
-6.99%
Sep 1929 - Aug 1939 |
+10.85% |
+21.33%
Oct 1990 - Sep 2000 |
4.55%
48 out of 1054 |
-7.27%
Oct 1964 - Sep 1974 |
+7.77% |
+18.09%
Oct 1990 - Sep 2000 |
14.42%
152 out of 1054 |
-6.51%
Sep 1929 - Aug 1940 |
+10.90% |
+19.99%
Apr 1989 - Mar 2000 |
4.70%
49 out of 1042 |
-5.32%
Oct 1963 - Sep 1974 |
+8.02% |
+16.38%
Apr 1989 - Mar 2000 |
14.11%
147 out of 1042 |
-5.64%
Sep 1929 - Aug 1941 |
+11.11% |
+19.74%
Oct 1974 - Sep 1986 |
3.50%
36 out of 1030 |
-4.74%
May 1930 - Apr 1942 |
+7.94% |
+16.13%
Jun 1949 - May 1961 |
14.95%
154 out of 1030 |
-6.14%
Sep 1929 - Aug 1942 |
+10.91% |
+21.07%
Oct 1974 - Sep 1987 |
3.83%
39 out of 1018 |
-5.80%
Sep 1929 - Aug 1942 |
+8.02% |
+15.66%
Dec 1948 - Nov 1961 |
14.15%
144 out of 1018 |
-3.58%
Dec 1928 - Nov 1942 |
+10.89% |
+18.24%
May 1942 - Apr 1956 |
3.38%
34 out of 1006 |
-3.42%
Dec 1928 - Nov 1942 |
+7.92% |
+14.83%
Jun 1932 - May 1946 |
12.43%
125 out of 1006 |
-2.10%
Sep 1929 - Aug 1944 |
+10.55% |
+18.77%
Oct 1974 - Sep 1989 |
3.02%
30 out of 994 |
-2.97%
Aug 1967 - Jul 1982 |
+7.32% |
+14.81%
Apr 1985 - Mar 2000 |
12.17%
121 out of 994 |
-0.46%
Dec 1928 - Nov 1944 |
+10.41% |
+18.50%
Apr 1984 - Mar 2000 |
0.61%
6 out of 982 |
-1.68%
Aug 1966 - Jul 1982 |
+7.17% |
+14.80%
Mar 1984 - Feb 2000 |
6.92%
68 out of 982 |
+0.29%
Oct 1929 - Sep 1946 |
+10.49% |
+17.83%
Oct 1974 - Sep 1991 |
0.00%
0 out of 970 |
-1.29%
Aug 1965 - Jul 1982 |
+7.22% |
+14.09%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1999 |
4.02%
39 out of 970 |
+0.14%
Sep 1929 - Aug 1947 |
+10.31% |
+18.92%
Apr 1982 - Mar 2000 |
0.00%
0 out of 958 |
-1.31%
Sep 1929 - Aug 1947 |
+7.30% |
+15.08%
Apr 1982 - Mar 2000 |
2.71%
26 out of 958 |
+0.40%
Sep 1929 - Aug 1948 |
+10.40% |
+17.60%
Oct 1974 - Sep 1993 |
0.00%
0 out of 946 |
-1.41%
Sep 1929 - Aug 1948 |
+7.25% |
+13.57%
Oct 1981 - Sep 2000 |
1.27%
12 out of 946 |
+0.54%
Sep 1929 - Aug 1949 |
+10.47% |
+18.75%
Apr 1980 - Mar 2000 |
0.00%
0 out of 934 |
-1.02%
Sep 1929 - Aug 1949 |
+7.43% |
+14.33%
Apr 1980 - Mar 2000 |
1.18%
11 out of 934 |
+3.76%
Sep 1929 - Aug 1954 |
+10.73% |
+17.86%
Jan 1975 - Dec 1999 |
0.00%
0 out of 874 |
+1.96%
Sep 1929 - Aug 1954 |
+7.45% |
+12.43%
Jan 1975 - Dec 1999 |
0.00%
0 out of 874 |
+6.08%
Sep 1929 - Aug 1959 |
+10.76% |
+14.88%
Oct 1974 - Sep 2004 |
0.00%
0 out of 814 |
+3.75%
Nov 1960 - Oct 1990 |
+7.07% |
+11.07%
Jun 1932 - May 1962 |
0.00%
0 out of 814 |
iShares S&P Mid-Cap 400 Growth (IJK) ETF: Historical Returns