iShares S&P Small-Cap 600 Value (IJS): Rolling Returns

Time Period: from January 1927 to September 2024 (~98 years)
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When holding the iShares S&P Small-Cap 600 Value (IJS) ETF, how long should you stay invested to have high probability to achieve a positive return?

Over the selected period (~98 years), the longest duration with a negative return was 177 months (from August 1927 to April 1942).

This indicates that, within the same timeframe, any rolling period of 178 months or more has consistently resulted in a positive return.

Understanding this metric is crucial as it highlights the importance of a safe investment horizon. Knowing the minimum duration required to likely see positive returns helps investors set realistic expectations and reinforces the strategy of staying invested through market cycles. This approach can mitigate the emotional reactions to short-term market fluctuations and enhance the likelihood of achieving financial goals.

Previous vs subsequent Returns

Is there a correlation between past and future returns over all 10-year rolling periods?

The following chart illustrates the relationship between past returns (x-axis) and subsequent returns (y-axis).

Data points are aggregated to show occurrences, and you can zoom in by clicking or drawing over the desired area.

ISHARES S&P SMALL-CAP 600 VALUE (IJS) ETF
Previous vs Next Returns - 10 Years annualized
Time Period: 1 October 1994 - 30 September 2024 (30 Years)
Time Period: 1 January 1927 - 30 September 2024 (~98 years)

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As of Sep 30, 2024, the annualized return of the previous 10 years has been 8.89%.

Rolling Returns

A rolling return is a measure of investment performance that calculates the return of an investment over a set period of time, with the starting date rolling forward. This approach can provide a more accurate representation of the investment's historical performance and helps investors to evaluate the investment's consistency over time.

ISHARES S&P SMALL-CAP 600 VALUE (IJS) ETF
Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Returns - Inflation Adjusted
Time Period: 1 October 1994 - 30 September 2024 (30 Years)
Time Period: 1 January 1927 - 30 September 2024 (~98 years)
US Inflation Adjusted:

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Rolling Period Analysis

By selecting the 'Rolling Period', the chart and data will update. To study a different date range, change the simulation settings.

ISHARES S&P SMALL-CAP 600 VALUE (IJS) ETF
Rolling Returns Chart
Rolling Returns Chart - Inflation Adjusted
Time Period: 1 January 1927 - 30 September 2024 (~98 years)
US Inflation Adjusted:

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Swipe left to see all data
Worst Median Best Negative Periods
-69.93%
Jul 1931 - Jun 1932
+15.69% +211.23%
Jul 1932 - Jun 1933
27.11%
315 out of 1162
-66.62%
Jul 1931 - Jun 1932
+11.61% +233.29%
Jul 1932 - Jun 1933
30.90%
359 out of 1162
-60.12%
Jun 1930 - May 1932
+14.85% +87.03%
Jul 1932 - Jun 1934
17.74%
204 out of 1150
-55.70%
Jun 1930 - May 1932
+11.08% +88.42%
Jul 1932 - Jun 1934
24.35%
280 out of 1150
-49.09%
Jul 1929 - Jun 1932
+14.14% +57.02%
Jul 1932 - Jun 1935
13.18%
150 out of 1138
-45.05%
Jul 1929 - Jun 1932
+10.87% +56.63%
Jul 1932 - Jun 1935
18.01%
205 out of 1138
-35.60%
Jun 1928 - May 1932
+14.51% +58.99%
Jul 1932 - Jun 1936
11.46%
129 out of 1126
-31.84%
Jun 1928 - May 1932
+10.96% +58.41%
Jul 1932 - Jun 1936
17.94%
202 out of 1126
-25.77%
Jun 1927 - May 1932
+14.07% +49.56%
Jun 1932 - May 1937
9.25%
103 out of 1114
-22.13%
Jun 1927 - May 1932
+11.10% +48.07%
Jun 1932 - May 1937
13.20%
147 out of 1114
-15.31%
Mar 1927 - Feb 1933
+13.75% +34.59%
Jun 1940 - May 1946
6.44%
71 out of 1102
-13.05%
Jan 1969 - Dec 1974
+10.73% +30.36%
Jul 1932 - Jun 1938
8.44%
93 out of 1102
-7.75%
Apr 1928 - Mar 1935
+14.03% +30.95%
Jan 1975 - Dec 1981
4.22%
46 out of 1090
-8.07%
Jan 1968 - Dec 1974
+10.38% +26.33%
Jun 1932 - May 1939
5.96%
65 out of 1090
-6.90%
Apr 1930 - Mar 1938
+14.07% +31.67%
Jan 1975 - Dec 1982
2.50%
27 out of 1078
-4.77%
Apr 1930 - Mar 1938
+10.70% +22.11%
Apr 1938 - Mar 1946
4.17%
45 out of 1078
-7.04%
Apr 1929 - Mar 1938
+14.35% +32.85%
Jan 1975 - Dec 1983
1.88%
20 out of 1066
-5.08%
Apr 1929 - Mar 1938
+10.49% +23.32%
Jan 1975 - Dec 1983
2.35%
25 out of 1066
-5.61%
Sep 1929 - Aug 1939
+14.43% +29.84%
Jan 1975 - Dec 1984
3.23%
34 out of 1054
-3.45%
Sep 1929 - Aug 1939
+10.83% +20.95%
Jan 1975 - Dec 1984
1.33%
14 out of 1054
-5.03%
Sep 1929 - Aug 1940
+14.20% +30.52%
Jan 1975 - Dec 1985
2.88%
30 out of 1042
-3.18%
Sep 1929 - Aug 1940
+10.80% +21.95%
Jan 1975 - Dec 1985
1.63%
17 out of 1042
-3.78%
Sep 1929 - Aug 1941
+14.66% +29.09%
Oct 1974 - Sep 1986
3.01%
31 out of 1030
-2.58%
Sep 1929 - Aug 1941
+11.08% +21.15%
Jan 1975 - Dec 1986
2.14%
22 out of 1030
-3.85%
Sep 1929 - Aug 1942
+14.66% +28.89%
Oct 1974 - Sep 1987
2.55%
26 out of 1018
-3.50%
Sep 1929 - Aug 1942
+10.76% +21.99%
Jun 1932 - May 1945
1.47%
15 out of 1018
-1.76%
May 1928 - Apr 1942
+14.67% +26.40%
Jan 1975 - Dec 1988
1.49%
15 out of 1006
-1.33%
May 1928 - Apr 1942
+10.63% +23.26%
Jun 1932 - May 1946
1.09%
11 out of 1006
+0.44%
Sep 1927 - Aug 1942
+14.50% +26.31%
Oct 1974 - Sep 1989
0.00%
0 out of 994
+0.72%
Sep 1927 - Aug 1942
+10.53% +18.93%
Oct 1974 - Sep 1989
0.00%
0 out of 994
+2.72%
Jan 1927 - Dec 1942
+14.67% +22.51%
Jul 1974 - Jun 1990
0.00%
0 out of 982
+3.02%
Jan 1927 - Dec 1942
+10.54% +17.53%
Jun 1932 - May 1948
0.00%
0 out of 982
+5.30%
Oct 1929 - Sep 1946
+14.97% +23.59%
Jan 1975 - Dec 1991
0.00%
0 out of 970
+3.97%
Nov 2006 - Oct 2023
+10.39% +18.50%
May 1942 - Apr 1959
0.00%
0 out of 970
+5.01%
Sep 1929 - Aug 1947
+14.85% +23.85%
Jan 1975 - Dec 1992
0.00%
0 out of 958
+3.48%
Sep 1929 - Aug 1947
+10.18% +17.32%
Jun 1932 - May 1950
0.00%
0 out of 958
+5.00%
Sep 1929 - Aug 1948
+14.78% +23.70%
Jan 1975 - Dec 1993
0.00%
0 out of 946
+3.11%
Sep 1929 - Aug 1948
+10.27% +17.42%
May 1942 - Apr 1961
0.00%
0 out of 946
+4.74%
Sep 1929 - Aug 1949
+14.85% +22.53%
Oct 1974 - Sep 1994
0.00%
0 out of 934
+3.11%
Sep 1929 - Aug 1949
+10.43% +17.24%
Dec 1948 - Nov 1968
0.00%
0 out of 934
+7.72%
Dec 1928 - Nov 1953
+15.27% +21.21%
Jan 1975 - Dec 1999
0.00%
0 out of 874
+5.47%
May 1998 - Apr 2023
+10.63% +16.67%
Jun 1932 - May 1957
0.00%
0 out of 874
+9.52%
Jan 1928 - Dec 1957
+15.54% +20.14%
Jan 1975 - Dec 2004
0.00%
0 out of 814
+6.95%
Nov 1993 - Oct 2023
+10.78% +15.52%
Jun 1932 - May 1962
0.00%
0 out of 814
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