When holding the iShares USD TIPS (IUST.DE) ETF, how long should you stay invested to have high probability to achieve a positive return?
Over the selected period (~40 years), the longest duration with a negative return was 102 months (from June 2001 to November 2009).
This indicates that, within the same timeframe, any rolling period of 103 months or more has consistently resulted in a positive return.
Understanding this metric is crucial as it highlights the importance of a safe investment horizon. Knowing the minimum duration required to likely see positive returns helps investors set realistic expectations and reinforces the strategy of staying invested through market cycles. This approach can mitigate the emotional reactions to short-term market fluctuations and enhance the likelihood of achieving financial goals.
iShares USD TIPS (IUST.DE) ETF: Historical Returns
Previous vs subsequent Returns
Is there a correlation between past and future returns over all 10-year rolling periods?
The following chart illustrates the relationship between past returns (x-axis) and subsequent returns (y-axis).
Data points are aggregated to show occurrences, and you can zoom in by clicking or drawing over the desired area.
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As of Aug 31, 2024, the annualized return of the previous 10 years has been 3.78%.
Rolling Returns
A rolling return is a measure of investment performance that calculates the return of an investment over a set period of time, with the starting date rolling forward. This approach can provide a more accurate representation of the investment's historical performance and helps investors to evaluate the investment's consistency over time.
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Rolling Period Analysis
By selecting the 'Rolling Period', the chart and data will update. To study a different date range, change the simulation settings.
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Worst | Median | Best | Negative Periods |
---|---|---|---|
-19.01%
Nov 1993 - Oct 1994 |
+5.28% |
+51.73%
Sep 1992 - Aug 1993 |
32.69%
152 out of 465 |
-21.20%
Nov 1993 - Oct 1994 |
+3.25% |
+46.67%
Sep 1992 - Aug 1993 |
39.57%
184 out of 465 |
-10.46%
Jan 1986 - Dec 1987 |
+5.35% |
+24.35%
Aug 1999 - Jul 2001 |
26.93%
122 out of 453 |
-10.46%
Jan 1986 - Dec 1987 |
+3.14% |
+21.55%
Aug 1999 - Jul 2001 |
35.32%
160 out of 453 |
-6.88%
Jan 1985 - Dec 1987 |
+5.24% |
+24.28%
Nov 1990 - Oct 1993 |
12.93%
57 out of 441 |
-7.36%
Jan 1985 - Dec 1987 |
+3.39% |
+20.06%
Nov 1990 - Oct 1993 |
29.71%
131 out of 441 |
-1.75%
May 2002 - Apr 2006 |
+5.84% |
+18.91%
Sep 1996 - Aug 2000 |
9.56%
41 out of 429 |
-3.84%
May 2020 - Apr 2024 |
+4.01% |
+17.16%
Sep 1996 - Aug 2000 |
22.61%
97 out of 429 |
-2.35%
Oct 2002 - Sep 2007 |
+5.89% |
+18.48%
Jun 1996 - May 2001 |
6.95%
29 out of 417 |
-4.40%
Oct 2002 - Sep 2007 |
+3.98% |
+16.52%
Jun 1996 - May 2001 |
15.11%
63 out of 417 |
-1.82%
Apr 2002 - Mar 2008 |
+6.26% |
+17.19%
Apr 1995 - Mar 2001 |
4.94%
20 out of 405 |
-4.05%
Apr 2002 - Mar 2008 |
+4.35% |
+15.23%
Apr 1995 - Mar 2001 |
12.84%
52 out of 405 |
-1.60%
Jun 2001 - May 2008 |
+5.98% |
+15.67%
Nov 1994 - Oct 2001 |
2.54%
10 out of 393 |
-3.84%
Jun 2001 - May 2008 |
+4.12% |
+13.59%
Nov 1994 - Oct 2001 |
12.72%
50 out of 393 |
-0.20%
Jun 2001 - May 2009 |
+6.11% |
+14.41%
Sep 1992 - Aug 2000 |
0.52%
2 out of 381 |
-2.20%
Jun 2001 - May 2009 |
+4.25% |
+12.07%
Sep 1992 - Aug 2000 |
12.07%
46 out of 381 |
+1.10%
May 2002 - Apr 2011 |
+5.62% |
+14.55%
Jul 1992 - Jun 2001 |
0.00%
0 out of 369 |
-0.97%
May 2002 - Apr 2011 |
+3.94% |
+12.10%
Jul 1992 - Jun 2001 |
5.15%
19 out of 369 |
+1.22%
Jun 2001 - May 2011 |
+5.57% |
+14.59%
Nov 1990 - Oct 2000 |
0.00%
0 out of 357 |
-0.84%
Jun 2001 - May 2011 |
+3.94% |
+11.91%
Nov 1990 - Oct 2000 |
1.40%
5 out of 357 |
+2.18%
Aug 2012 - Jul 2023 |
+5.65% |
+14.20%
Nov 1990 - Oct 2001 |
0.00%
0 out of 345 |
+0.05%
Aug 2012 - Jul 2023 |
+3.94% |
+11.55%
Nov 1990 - Oct 2001 |
0.00%
0 out of 345 |
+1.97%
Mar 2002 - Feb 2014 |
+5.97% |
+12.95%
Oct 1990 - Sep 2002 |
0.00%
0 out of 333 |
+0.03%
Mar 2002 - Feb 2014 |
+4.13% |
+10.30%
Oct 1990 - Sep 2002 |
0.00%
0 out of 333 |
+2.18%
Jun 2001 - May 2014 |
+6.04% |
+12.87%
Jun 1988 - May 2001 |
0.00%
0 out of 321 |
+0.25%
Jun 2001 - May 2014 |
+4.25% |
+10.01%
Jun 1988 - May 2001 |
0.00%
0 out of 321 |
+3.37%
Nov 2000 - Oct 2014 |
+6.05% |
+12.35%
Jan 1988 - Dec 2001 |
0.00%
0 out of 309 |
+1.29%
Jun 2010 - May 2024 |
+4.11% |
+9.57%
Jan 1988 - Dec 2001 |
0.00%
0 out of 309 |
+3.04%
Mar 2003 - Feb 2018 |
+6.03% |
+11.40%
Jan 1988 - Dec 2002 |
0.00%
0 out of 297 |
+1.37%
Oct 2002 - Sep 2017 |
+3.93% |
+8.68%
Dec 1987 - Nov 2002 |
0.00%
0 out of 297 |
+2.55%
Feb 2002 - Jan 2018 |
+6.14% |
+10.05%
Dec 1987 - Nov 2003 |
0.00%
0 out of 285 |
+0.91%
Feb 2002 - Jan 2018 |
+4.16% |
+7.39%
Dec 1987 - Nov 2003 |
0.00%
0 out of 285 |
+2.81%
Apr 2001 - Mar 2018 |
+6.16% |
+9.50%
Jun 1988 - May 2005 |
0.00%
0 out of 273 |
+1.10%
Apr 2001 - Mar 2018 |
+4.14% |
+6.85%
Jun 1988 - May 2005 |
0.00%
0 out of 273 |
+3.12%
Jul 2001 - Jun 2019 |
+6.44% |
+9.78%
Jan 1988 - Dec 2005 |
0.00%
0 out of 261 |
+1.44%
Jul 2001 - Jun 2019 |
+4.42% |
+7.14%
Jan 1988 - Dec 2005 |
0.00%
0 out of 261 |
+3.11%
Mar 2002 - Feb 2021 |
+6.65% |
+8.64%
Jan 1988 - Dec 2006 |
0.00%
0 out of 249 |
+1.54%
Mar 2002 - Feb 2021 |
+4.61% |
+6.06%
Dec 1987 - Nov 2006 |
0.00%
0 out of 249 |
+3.11%
Jun 2001 - May 2021 |
+6.76% |
+8.69%
Sep 1990 - Aug 2010 |
0.00%
0 out of 237 |
+1.49%
Jun 2001 - May 2021 |
+4.59% |
+6.30%
Sep 1992 - Aug 2012 |
0.00%
0 out of 237 |
+4.48%
Jun 1999 - May 2024 |
+6.58% |
+8.42%
Dec 1987 - Nov 2012 |
0.00%
0 out of 177 |
+2.30%
Jun 1999 - May 2024 |
+4.48% |
+5.99%
Dec 1990 - Nov 2015 |
0.00%
0 out of 177 |
+5.06%
Aug 1993 - Jul 2023 |
+6.66% |
+7.32%
Jan 1988 - Dec 2017 |
0.00%
0 out of 117 |
+2.93%
Nov 1993 - Oct 2023 |
+4.58% |
+5.32%
Nov 1990 - Oct 2020 |
0.00%
0 out of 117 |
iShares USD TIPS (IUST.DE) ETF: Historical Returns