When holding the iShares USD Treasury Bond 20+yr EUR Hedged (IUSV.DE) ETF, how long should you stay invested to have high probability to achieve a positive return?
Over the selected period (~75 years), the longest duration with a negative return was 200 months (from February 1965 to September 1981).
This indicates that, within the same timeframe, any rolling period of 201 months or more has consistently resulted in a positive return.
Understanding this metric is crucial as it highlights the importance of a safe investment horizon. Knowing the minimum duration required to likely see positive returns helps investors set realistic expectations and reinforces the strategy of staying invested through market cycles. This approach can mitigate the emotional reactions to short-term market fluctuations and enhance the likelihood of achieving financial goals.
iShares USD Treasury Bond 20+yr EUR Hedged (IUSV.DE) ETF: Historical Returns
Previous vs subsequent Returns
Is there a correlation between past and future returns over all 10-year rolling periods?
The following chart illustrates the relationship between past returns (x-axis) and subsequent returns (y-axis).
Data points are aggregated to show occurrences, and you can zoom in by clicking or drawing over the desired area.
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As of Aug 31, 2024, the annualized return of the previous 10 years has been -1.07%.
Rolling Returns
A rolling return is a measure of investment performance that calculates the return of an investment over a set period of time, with the starting date rolling forward. This approach can provide a more accurate representation of the investment's historical performance and helps investors to evaluate the investment's consistency over time.
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Rolling Period Analysis
By selecting the 'Rolling Period', the chart and data will update. To study a different date range, change the simulation settings.
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Worst | Median | Best | Negative Periods |
---|---|---|---|
-35.02%
Nov 2021 - Oct 2022 |
+4.06% |
+63.37%
Apr 1985 - Mar 1986 |
30.06%
266 out of 885 |
-41.26%
Nov 2021 - Oct 2022 |
+1.72% |
+63.19%
Apr 1985 - Mar 1986 |
42.71%
378 out of 885 |
-24.34%
Nov 2021 - Oct 2023 |
+4.99% |
+44.96%
Jul 1984 - Jun 1986 |
21.42%
187 out of 873 |
-29.09%
Nov 2021 - Oct 2023 |
+2.75% |
+43.51%
Jul 1984 - Jun 1986 |
33.33%
291 out of 873 |
-18.49%
Nov 2020 - Oct 2023 |
+5.27% |
+26.48%
Jun 1984 - May 1987 |
13.94%
120 out of 861 |
-22.96%
Nov 2020 - Oct 2023 |
+3.07% |
+25.49%
Jun 1984 - May 1987 |
27.64%
238 out of 861 |
-14.14%
May 2020 - Apr 2024 |
+5.06% |
+25.87%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1986 |
11.43%
97 out of 849 |
-17.89%
May 2020 - Apr 2024 |
+2.73% |
+23.58%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1986 |
26.15%
222 out of 849 |
-7.31%
Sep 2019 - Aug 2024 |
+5.14% |
+23.76%
Sep 1981 - Aug 1986 |
10.75%
90 out of 837 |
-11.01%
Oct 1976 - Sep 1981 |
+2.60% |
+20.93%
Sep 1981 - Aug 1986 |
28.67%
240 out of 837 |
-5.92%
Nov 2017 - Oct 2023 |
+5.19% |
+17.65%
Mar 1981 - Feb 1987 |
10.67%
88 out of 825 |
-8.96%
Nov 2017 - Oct 2023 |
+2.46% |
+15.27%
Sep 1981 - Aug 1987 |
29.70%
245 out of 825 |
-5.64%
Nov 2016 - Oct 2023 |
+5.69% |
+16.60%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1988 |
8.61%
70 out of 813 |
-8.44%
Nov 2016 - Oct 2023 |
+2.86% |
+14.45%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1988 |
27.80%
226 out of 813 |
-4.30%
Jul 2016 - Jun 2024 |
+5.67% |
+15.92%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1989 |
6.49%
52 out of 801 |
-7.05%
Aug 2016 - Jul 2024 |
+3.35% |
+13.65%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1989 |
27.34%
219 out of 801 |
-3.16%
Feb 2015 - Jan 2024 |
+5.76% |
+16.93%
Jul 1984 - Jun 1993 |
4.56%
36 out of 789 |
-6.38%
Oct 1972 - Sep 1981 |
+3.63% |
+14.29%
Jul 1984 - Jun 1993 |
25.86%
204 out of 789 |
-1.41%
Nov 2013 - Oct 2023 |
+6.08% |
+15.30%
Jun 1984 - May 1994 |
2.96%
23 out of 777 |
-5.93%
Oct 1971 - Sep 1981 |
+3.78% |
+12.62%
Jun 1984 - May 1994 |
29.47%
229 out of 777 |
-2.24%
Nov 2012 - Oct 2023 |
+6.08% |
+15.50%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1993 |
2.35%
18 out of 765 |
-4.41%
Apr 1971 - Mar 1982 |
+3.98% |
+12.82%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1993 |
28.37%
217 out of 765 |
-1.59%
Jun 2012 - May 2024 |
+6.12% |
+16.21%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1993 |
1.59%
12 out of 753 |
-3.97%
Sep 1969 - Aug 1981 |
+3.94% |
+13.27%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1993 |
28.82%
217 out of 753 |
+0.03%
Oct 1968 - Sep 1981 |
+6.35% |
+14.38%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1995 |
0.00%
0 out of 741 |
-4.66%
Oct 1968 - Sep 1981 |
+3.63% |
+11.66%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1995 |
29.01%
215 out of 741 |
+0.08%
Oct 1967 - Sep 1981 |
+6.34% |
+14.71%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1995 |
0.00%
0 out of 729 |
-4.38%
Oct 1967 - Sep 1981 |
+3.78% |
+11.79%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1995 |
28.67%
209 out of 729 |
-0.00%
Oct 1966 - Sep 1981 |
+6.40% |
+13.76%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1996 |
0.14%
1 out of 717 |
-4.28%
Oct 1966 - Sep 1981 |
+3.87% |
+10.91%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1996 |
26.64%
191 out of 717 |
-0.07%
Oct 1965 - Sep 1981 |
+6.57% |
+13.60%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1997 |
0.14%
1 out of 705 |
-4.26%
Oct 1965 - Sep 1981 |
+3.95% |
+10.82%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1997 |
25.67%
181 out of 705 |
+0.07%
Oct 1964 - Sep 1981 |
+6.56% |
+13.95%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1998 |
0.00%
0 out of 693 |
-4.09%
Oct 1964 - Sep 1981 |
+4.31% |
+11.26%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1998 |
26.84%
186 out of 693 |
+0.24%
Oct 1963 - Sep 1981 |
+6.57% |
+12.50%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1999 |
0.00%
0 out of 681 |
-3.84%
Oct 1963 - Sep 1981 |
+4.30% |
+9.92%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1999 |
23.64%
161 out of 681 |
+0.37%
Oct 1962 - Sep 1981 |
+6.59% |
+12.51%
Jun 1984 - May 2003 |
0.00%
0 out of 669 |
-3.64%
Oct 1962 - Sep 1981 |
+4.36% |
+10.13%
Jun 1984 - May 2003 |
23.47%
157 out of 669 |
+0.60%
Oct 1961 - Sep 1981 |
+6.69% |
+12.25%
Oct 1981 - Sep 2001 |
0.00%
0 out of 657 |
-3.32%
Oct 1961 - Sep 1981 |
+4.32% |
+9.68%
Oct 1981 - Sep 2001 |
21.92%
144 out of 657 |
+1.16%
Oct 1956 - Sep 1981 |
+7.25% |
+11.07%
Oct 1981 - Sep 2006 |
0.00%
0 out of 597 |
-2.32%
Oct 1956 - Sep 1981 |
+4.29% |
+8.57%
Jan 1984 - Dec 2008 |
16.08%
96 out of 597 |
+1.50%
Oct 1951 - Sep 1981 |
+7.50% |
+11.08%
Oct 1981 - Sep 2011 |
0.00%
0 out of 537 |
-1.57%
Oct 1951 - Sep 1981 |
+4.13% |
+8.62%
Oct 1981 - Sep 2011 |
13.22%
71 out of 537 |
iShares USD Treasury Bond 20+yr EUR Hedged (IUSV.DE) ETF: Historical Returns