iShares USD Treasury Bond 7-10yr (IUSM.DE): Rolling Returns

Time Period: from August 1953 to September 2024 (~71 years)
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When holding the iShares USD Treasury Bond 7-10yr (IUSM.DE) ETF, how long should you stay invested to have high probability to achieve a positive return?

Over the selected period (~71 years), the longest duration with a negative return was 110 months (from January 1971 to February 1980).

This indicates that, within the same timeframe, any rolling period of 111 months or more has consistently resulted in a positive return.

Understanding this metric is crucial as it highlights the importance of a safe investment horizon. Knowing the minimum duration required to likely see positive returns helps investors set realistic expectations and reinforces the strategy of staying invested through market cycles. This approach can mitigate the emotional reactions to short-term market fluctuations and enhance the likelihood of achieving financial goals.

Previous vs subsequent Returns

Is there a correlation between past and future returns over all 10-year rolling periods?

The following chart illustrates the relationship between past returns (x-axis) and subsequent returns (y-axis).

Data points are aggregated to show occurrences, and you can zoom in by clicking or drawing over the desired area.

ISHARES USD TREASURY BOND 7-10YR (IUSM.DE) ETF
Previous vs Next Returns - 10 Years annualized
Time Period: 1 October 1994 - 30 September 2024 (30 Years)
Time Period: 1 August 1953 - 30 September 2024 (~71 years)

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As of Sep 30, 2024, the annualized return of the previous 10 years has been 2.73%.

Rolling Returns

A rolling return is a measure of investment performance that calculates the return of an investment over a set period of time, with the starting date rolling forward. This approach can provide a more accurate representation of the investment's historical performance and helps investors to evaluate the investment's consistency over time.

ISHARES USD TREASURY BOND 7-10YR (IUSM.DE) ETF
Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Returns - Inflation Adjusted
Time Period: 1 October 1994 - 30 September 2024 (30 Years)
Time Period: 1 August 1953 - 30 September 2024 (~71 years)
Euro Inflation Adjusted:

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Rolling Period Analysis

By selecting the 'Rolling Period', the chart and data will update. To study a different date range, change the simulation settings.

ISHARES USD TREASURY BOND 7-10YR (IUSM.DE) ETF
Rolling Returns Chart
Rolling Returns Chart - Inflation Adjusted
Time Period: 1 August 1953 - 30 September 2024 (~71 years)
Euro Inflation Adjusted:

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Swipe left to see all data
Worst Median Best Negative Periods
-20.31%
Jan 1987 - Dec 1987
+3.86% +67.52%
Nov 1981 - Oct 1982
33.33%
281 out of 843
-24.43%
Aug 1972 - Jul 1973
+1.25% +59.79%
Nov 1981 - Oct 1982
44.25%
373 out of 843
-10.44%
Jan 1986 - Dec 1987
+4.17% +47.24%
Nov 1980 - Oct 1982
26.47%
220 out of 831
-14.12%
Aug 1971 - Jul 1973
+1.56% +38.73%
Nov 1980 - Oct 1982
40.07%
333 out of 831
-7.91%
Mar 1977 - Feb 1980
+4.35% +36.76%
Feb 1982 - Jan 1985
18.44%
151 out of 819
-11.33%
Mar 1977 - Feb 1980
+2.09% +32.82%
Feb 1982 - Jan 1985
32.60%
267 out of 819
-4.59%
May 2020 - Apr 2024
+4.73% +34.35%
Feb 1981 - Jan 1985
10.78%
87 out of 807
-9.25%
Apr 1971 - Mar 1975
+2.34% +29.34%
Feb 1981 - Jan 1985
28.00%
226 out of 807
-3.64%
Oct 2002 - Sep 2007
+4.60% +32.67%
Mar 1980 - Feb 1985
5.03%
40 out of 795
-6.51%
Aug 1968 - Jul 1973
+2.24% +27.43%
Mar 1980 - Feb 1985
27.30%
217 out of 795
-3.02%
Nov 2001 - Oct 2007
+4.77% +26.39%
Apr 1980 - Mar 1986
3.07%
24 out of 783
-5.12%
May 1969 - Apr 1975
+2.16% +22.21%
Apr 1980 - Mar 1986
24.14%
189 out of 783
-2.18%
Jul 2001 - Jun 2008
+5.06% +21.45%
Mar 1980 - Feb 1987
2.46%
19 out of 771
-4.50%
Oct 1971 - Sep 1978
+2.96% +17.96%
Mar 1980 - Feb 1987
22.57%
174 out of 771
-0.69%
Nov 2001 - Oct 2009
+5.21% +18.28%
Oct 1978 - Sep 1986
0.66%
5 out of 759
-4.92%
Mar 1972 - Feb 1980
+3.01% +14.52%
Mar 1980 - Feb 1988
20.55%
156 out of 759
-0.42%
Mar 1971 - Feb 1980
+5.06% +17.30%
Sep 1980 - Aug 1989
0.27%
2 out of 747
-5.23%
Mar 1971 - Feb 1980
+2.95% +14.40%
Sep 1980 - Aug 1989
19.68%
147 out of 747
+0.80%
Mar 1970 - Feb 1980
+5.27% +16.26%
Jun 1975 - May 1985
0.00%
0 out of 735
-4.03%
Mar 1970 - Feb 1980
+3.06% +12.74%
Mar 1980 - Feb 1990
15.37%
113 out of 735
+1.00%
Mar 1969 - Feb 1980
+5.74% +14.92%
Nov 1980 - Oct 1991
0.00%
0 out of 723
-3.64%
Mar 1969 - Feb 1980
+3.74% +11.72%
Nov 1980 - Oct 1991
14.80%
107 out of 723
+1.00%
Mar 1968 - Feb 1980
+5.83% +14.92%
Mar 1980 - Feb 1992
0.00%
0 out of 711
-3.40%
Mar 1968 - Feb 1980
+3.70% +11.77%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1993
15.89%
113 out of 711
+1.24%
Mar 1967 - Feb 1980
+5.92% +15.61%
Nov 1980 - Oct 1993
0.00%
0 out of 699
-2.96%
Mar 1967 - Feb 1980
+3.76% +12.31%
Nov 1980 - Oct 1993
15.59%
109 out of 699
+1.68%
Mar 1966 - Feb 1980
+5.97% +15.13%
Mar 1980 - Feb 1994
0.00%
0 out of 687
-2.41%
Mar 1966 - Feb 1980
+3.86% +11.80%
Mar 1980 - Feb 1994
15.43%
106 out of 687
+1.47%
Mar 1965 - Feb 1980
+6.32% +13.62%
Oct 1978 - Sep 1993
0.00%
0 out of 675
-2.61%
Mar 1965 - Feb 1980
+3.98% +10.08%
Oct 1978 - Sep 1993
14.81%
100 out of 675
+1.62%
Mar 1964 - Feb 1980
+6.62% +13.35%
Mar 1980 - Feb 1996
0.00%
0 out of 663
-2.32%
Mar 1964 - Feb 1980
+4.08% +10.14%
Mar 1980 - Feb 1996
14.18%
94 out of 663
+1.65%
Mar 1963 - Feb 1980
+6.86% +13.34%
Mar 1980 - Feb 1997
0.00%
0 out of 651
-2.19%
Mar 1963 - Feb 1980
+4.12% +10.33%
Feb 1981 - Jan 1998
12.60%
82 out of 651
+1.80%
Mar 1962 - Feb 1980
+6.83% +13.70%
Mar 1980 - Feb 1998
0.00%
0 out of 639
-2.02%
Mar 1962 - Feb 1980
+4.20% +10.65%
Mar 1980 - Feb 1998
12.05%
77 out of 639
+1.74%
Mar 1961 - Feb 1980
+6.93% +13.31%
Mar 1980 - Feb 1999
0.00%
0 out of 627
-2.05%
Mar 1961 - Feb 1980
+4.31% +10.40%
Nov 1981 - Oct 2000
12.44%
78 out of 627
+2.14%
Aug 1953 - Jul 1973
+7.05% +13.74%
Nov 1980 - Oct 2000
0.00%
0 out of 615
-1.56%
Mar 1960 - Feb 1980
+4.12% +10.88%
Nov 1980 - Oct 2000
12.36%
76 out of 615
+2.21%
Mar 1955 - Feb 1980
+7.19% +11.16%
May 1975 - Apr 2000
0.00%
0 out of 555
-1.10%
Mar 1955 - Feb 1980
+4.32% +8.22%
Mar 1980 - Feb 2005
6.13%
34 out of 555
+4.60%
Nov 1993 - Oct 2023
+7.18% +10.10%
Sep 1980 - Aug 2010
0.00%
0 out of 495
+1.77%
Jun 1954 - May 1984
+4.63% +7.53%
Sep 1980 - Aug 2010
0.00%
0 out of 495
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