When holding the SPDR Dow Jones Global Real Estate (SPY2.DE) ETF, how long should you stay invested to have high probability to achieve a positive return?
Over the selected period (~39 years), the longest duration with a negative return was 137 months (from October 1997 to February 2009).
This indicates that, within the same timeframe, any rolling period of 138 months or more has consistently resulted in a positive return.
Understanding this metric is crucial as it highlights the importance of a safe investment horizon. Knowing the minimum duration required to likely see positive returns helps investors set realistic expectations and reinforces the strategy of staying invested through market cycles. This approach can mitigate the emotional reactions to short-term market fluctuations and enhance the likelihood of achieving financial goals.
SPDR Dow Jones Global Real Estate (SPY2.DE) ETF: Historical Returns
Previous vs subsequent Returns
Is there a correlation between past and future returns over all 10-year rolling periods?
The following chart illustrates the relationship between past returns (x-axis) and subsequent returns (y-axis).
Data points are aggregated to show occurrences, and you can zoom in by clicking or drawing over the desired area.
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As of Aug 31, 2024, the annualized return of the previous 10 years has been 5.31%.
Rolling Returns
A rolling return is a measure of investment performance that calculates the return of an investment over a set period of time, with the starting date rolling forward. This approach can provide a more accurate representation of the investment's historical performance and helps investors to evaluate the investment's consistency over time.
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Rolling Period Analysis
By selecting the 'Rolling Period', the chart and data will update. To study a different date range, change the simulation settings.
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Worst | Median | Best | Negative Periods |
---|---|---|---|
-48.15%
Mar 2008 - Feb 2009 |
+10.42% |
+71.48%
Apr 2009 - Mar 2010 |
32.89%
149 out of 453 |
-48.75%
Mar 2008 - Feb 2009 |
+8.29% |
+68.81%
Apr 2009 - Mar 2010 |
35.76%
162 out of 453 |
-40.12%
Mar 2007 - Feb 2009 |
+8.61% |
+44.74%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2011 |
28.34%
125 out of 441 |
-41.42%
Mar 2007 - Feb 2009 |
+6.13% |
+42.41%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2011 |
34.01%
150 out of 441 |
-25.08%
Apr 2006 - Mar 2009 |
+7.40% |
+29.38%
Apr 2003 - Mar 2006 |
18.65%
80 out of 429 |
-26.60%
Mar 2006 - Feb 2009 |
+5.34% |
+26.83%
Apr 2003 - Mar 2006 |
25.64%
110 out of 429 |
-11.48%
Mar 2005 - Feb 2009 |
+8.35% |
+28.14%
Apr 2009 - Mar 2013 |
17.75%
74 out of 417 |
-13.35%
Mar 2005 - Feb 2009 |
+6.17% |
+25.43%
Apr 2009 - Mar 2013 |
24.94%
104 out of 417 |
-7.78%
Apr 2004 - Mar 2009 |
+6.76% |
+21.19%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2014 |
13.09%
53 out of 405 |
-9.67%
Apr 2004 - Mar 2009 |
+4.65% |
+19.15%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2014 |
24.69%
100 out of 405 |
-2.73%
Oct 2005 - Sep 2011 |
+6.47% |
+24.92%
Apr 2009 - Mar 2015 |
5.09%
20 out of 393 |
-4.64%
Oct 2005 - Sep 2011 |
+4.34% |
+23.20%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2015 |
19.59%
77 out of 393 |
-4.77%
Apr 2002 - Mar 2009 |
+7.60% |
+20.49%
Apr 2009 - Mar 2016 |
3.94%
15 out of 381 |
-6.70%
Apr 2002 - Mar 2009 |
+5.49% |
+19.05%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2016 |
16.80%
64 out of 381 |
-1.79%
Mar 2001 - Feb 2009 |
+7.77% |
+19.73%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2017 |
1.36%
5 out of 369 |
-3.85%
Mar 2001 - Feb 2009 |
+5.49% |
+18.24%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2017 |
9.49%
35 out of 369 |
+1.44%
Apr 2000 - Mar 2009 |
+7.37% |
+15.01%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2018 |
0.00%
0 out of 357 |
-0.68%
Apr 2000 - Mar 2009 |
+5.12% |
+13.59%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2018 |
2.52%
9 out of 357 |
+2.40%
Mar 1999 - Feb 2009 |
+7.01% |
+15.87%
Apr 2009 - Mar 2019 |
0.00%
0 out of 345 |
+0.29%
Mar 1999 - Feb 2009 |
+4.95% |
+14.39%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2019 |
0.00%
0 out of 345 |
-0.09%
Apr 1998 - Mar 2009 |
+7.80% |
+15.89%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2020 |
0.60%
2 out of 333 |
-2.06%
Apr 1998 - Mar 2009 |
+5.77% |
+14.46%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2020 |
1.50%
5 out of 333 |
+1.78%
Mar 1997 - Feb 2009 |
+7.49% |
+14.30%
Mar 1995 - Feb 2007 |
0.00%
0 out of 321 |
-0.13%
Mar 1997 - Feb 2009 |
+5.28% |
+12.16%
Mar 1995 - Feb 2007 |
0.31%
1 out of 321 |
+2.01%
Apr 2007 - Mar 2020 |
+7.37% |
+13.80%
Apr 2009 - Mar 2022 |
0.00%
0 out of 309 |
+0.62%
Apr 2007 - Mar 2020 |
+5.06% |
+11.87%
Apr 2009 - Mar 2022 |
0.00%
0 out of 309 |
+2.13%
Nov 2006 - Oct 2020 |
+7.59% |
+13.66%
Nov 1992 - Oct 2006 |
0.00%
0 out of 297 |
+0.77%
Nov 2006 - Oct 2020 |
+5.51% |
+11.35%
Feb 1993 - Jan 2007 |
0.00%
0 out of 297 |
+2.43%
Mar 1994 - Feb 2009 |
+7.68% |
+12.73%
Apr 1992 - Mar 2007 |
0.00%
0 out of 285 |
+0.44%
Mar 1994 - Feb 2009 |
+5.72% |
+10.36%
Apr 1992 - Mar 2007 |
0.00%
0 out of 285 |
+2.96%
Jun 2007 - May 2023 |
+7.64% |
+13.28%
Feb 1991 - Jan 2007 |
0.00%
0 out of 273 |
+0.87%
Jun 2007 - May 2023 |
+5.39% |
+10.78%
Feb 1991 - Jan 2007 |
0.00%
0 out of 273 |
+2.55%
Nov 2006 - Oct 2023 |
+7.40% |
+11.75%
Oct 1990 - Sep 2007 |
0.00%
0 out of 261 |
+0.42%
Nov 2006 - Oct 2023 |
+5.40% |
+9.21%
Oct 1990 - Sep 2007 |
0.00%
0 out of 261 |
+3.69%
Apr 2006 - Mar 2024 |
+7.86% |
+10.31%
Jan 1988 - Dec 2005 |
0.00%
0 out of 249 |
+1.56%
Apr 2006 - Mar 2024 |
+5.82% |
+8.02%
Sep 1998 - Aug 2016 |
0.00%
0 out of 249 |
+3.62%
Mar 1990 - Feb 2009 |
+7.90% |
+10.87%
Jan 1988 - Dec 2006 |
0.00%
0 out of 237 |
+1.24%
Mar 1990 - Feb 2009 |
+5.90% |
+8.24%
Jan 1988 - Dec 2006 |
0.00%
0 out of 237 |
+3.15%
Mar 1989 - Feb 2009 |
+7.53% |
+10.69%
Mar 1986 - Feb 2006 |
0.00%
0 out of 225 |
+0.77%
Mar 1989 - Feb 2009 |
+5.44% |
+8.32%
Apr 1995 - Mar 2015 |
0.00%
0 out of 225 |
+5.87%
Apr 1998 - Mar 2023 |
+7.61% |
+9.71%
Dec 1990 - Nov 2015 |
0.00%
0 out of 165 |
+3.73%
Apr 1998 - Mar 2023 |
+5.72% |
+7.52%
Dec 1990 - Nov 2015 |
0.00%
0 out of 165 |
+6.17%
Nov 1993 - Oct 2023 |
+7.54% |
+8.93%
Aug 1992 - Jul 2022 |
0.00%
0 out of 105 |
+4.01%
Nov 1993 - Oct 2023 |
+5.43% |
+6.78%
Aug 1992 - Jul 2022 |
0.00%
0 out of 105 |
SPDR Dow Jones Global Real Estate (SPY2.DE) ETF: Historical Returns