SPDR Gold Trust (GLD): Historical Returns

Simulation Settings
Category: Commodities
Period: January 1871 - October 2024 (~154 years)
Consolidated Returns as of 31 October 2024
Live Update: Nov 20 2024
Currency: USD
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1.00$
Initial Capital
November 1994
6.57$
Final Capital
October 2024
6.48%
Yearly Return
15.54
Std Deviation
-42.91%
Max Drawdown
107months
Recovery Period
1.00$
Initial Capital
January 1871
110.35$
Final Capital
October 2024
3.10%
Yearly Return
12.67
Std Deviation
-61.78%
Max Drawdown
319months
Recovery Period
Live update: November 2024 (USD)
0.56%
1 day - Nov 20 2024
-3.51%
Month - November 2024

The SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) ETF covers to the following investment themes:

  • Asset Class: Commodity
  • Commodity: Gold

As of October 2024, in the previous 30 Years, the SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) ETF obtained a 6.48% compound annual return, with a 15.54% standard deviation. It suffered a maximum drawdown of -42.91% that required 107 months to be recovered.

Disclaimer: The simulations on this website are provided in good faith but should NOT be taken as investment advice. We are not liable for any errors or actions based on this information. The authors of the website are not affiliated with the ETFs/Assets issuers. Content is for informational, educational, illustrative and entertainment purposes only.

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The SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) ETF is part of the following Lazy Portfolios:

Portfolio Name Author GLD Weight▾ Currency
Gold 100.00% USD
Gold Pivot Ptf Aim Ways 34.00% USD
Permanent Portfolio Harry Browne 25.00% USD
Paul Boyer Portfolio Paul Boyer 25.00% USD
Simplified Permanent Portfolio The Lazy Team 25.00% USD
Marc Faber Portfolio Marc Faber 25.00% USD
Permanent Portfolio with Bitcoin Harry Browne 23.00% USD
Golden Butterfly Tyler 20.00% USD
Weird Portfolio Value Stock Geek 20.00% USD
Shield Strategy Aim Ways 20.00% USD
Golden Butterfly with Bitcoin Tyler 18.00% USD
Aim comfortable trip Aim Ways 15.00% USD
Ulcer Free Strategy Aim Ways 12.00% USD
Pinwheel Tyler 10.00% USD
Desert Portfolio Gyroscopic Investing 10.00% USD
In Saecula Saeculorum Fulvio Marchese 10.00% USD
PISI Portfolio Davide Pisicchio 10.00% USD
Odd-Stats Strategy Aim Ways 10.00% USD
Desert Portfolio with Bitcoin Gyroscopic Investing 8.00% USD
All Weather Portfolio Ray Dalio 7.50% USD
All Weather Portfolio with Bitcoin Ray Dalio 6.50% USD
GAA Global Asset Allocation Mebane Faber 5.00% USD
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Investment Returns as of Oct 31, 2024

The SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) ETF guaranteed the following returns.

Returns are calculated in USD, assuming:
  • no fees or capital gain taxes.
  • dividend reinvestment, when applicable.
  • the actual US Inflation rates.
SPDR GOLD TRUST (GLD) ETF
1 January 1871 - 31 October 2024 (~154 years)
Live Update: Nov 20 2024
Swipe left to see all data
  Chg (%) Return (%) Return (%) as of Oct 31, 2024
  1 Day Time ET(*) Nov 2024 YTD
(10M) 		1M 6M 1Y 5Y 10Y 30Y MAX
(~154Y)
Investment Return 0.56 -3.51 32.61 4.30 19.65 37.71 12.22 8.45 6.48 3.10
US Inflation Adjusted Return 29.79 4.05 18.80 34.25 7.73 5.41 3.86 0.96
Returns over 1 year are annualized
(*) Eastern Time (ET - America/New York)
US Inflation is updated to Oct 2024. Inflation (annualized) is 1Y: 2.58% , 5Y: 4.17% , 10Y: 2.88% , 30Y: 2.52%
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Capital Growth as of Oct 31, 2024

An investment of 1$, from November 1994 to October 2024, would be worth 6.57$, with a total return of 556.82% (6.48% annualized).

The Inflation Adjusted Capital would be 3.11$, with a net total return of 211.07% (3.86% annualized).

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An investment of 1$, from January 1871 to October 2024, would be worth 110.35$, with a total return of 10935.46% (3.10% annualized).

The Inflation Adjusted Capital would be 4.37$, with a net total return of 336.53% (0.96% annualized).

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Investment Metrics as of Oct 31, 2024

Metrics of SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) ETF, updated as of 31 October 2024, provide a comprehensive overview of the portfolio's performance and risk characteristics.

These metrics include detailed data on returns, volatility, drawdowns and other key performance indicators. By examining them, you can gain insights into how the portfolio has performed over various time periods and understand its risk profile.

Metrics are calculated based on monthly returns, assuming:
  • no fees or capital gain taxes.
  • dividend reinvestment, when applicable.
  • the actual US Inflation rates.
SPDR GOLD TRUST (GLD) ETF
Advanced Metrics
1 January 1871 - 31 October 2024 (~154 years)
Swipe left to see all data
Metrics as of Oct 31, 2024
YTD
(10M) 		1M 3M 6M 1Y 3Y 5Y 10Y 20Y 30Y MAX
(~154Y)
Investment Return (%)
32.61 4.30 11.90 19.65 37.71 15.01 12.22 8.45 9.30 6.48 3.10
Growth of 1$ 1.33 1.04 1.12 1.20 1.38 1.52 1.78 2.25 5.92 6.57 110.35
Infl. Adjusted Return (%)
29.79 4.05 11.22 18.80 34.25 10.06 7.73 5.41 6.59 3.86 0.96
US Inflation (%) 2.17 0.24 0.61 0.72 2.58 4.50 4.17 2.88 2.55 2.52 2.12
Returns / Inflation rates over 1 year are annualized.
DRAWDOWN
Inflation Adjusted:
Inflation Adjusted:
 Current 1Y 3Y 5Y 10Y 20Y 30Y MAX
Deepest Drawdown Depth (%) 0.00 -1.42 -15.91 -18.08 -18.08 -42.91 -42.91 -61.78
Start to Recovery (# months)
3 12 40 40 107 107 319
Start (yyyy mm) 2024 01 2022 04 2020 08 2020 08 2011 09 2011 09 1980 10
Start to Bottom (# months) 1 7 27 27 52 52 227
Bottom (yyyy mm) 2024 01 2022 10 2022 10 2022 10 2015 12 2015 12 1999 08
Bottom to End (# months) 2 5 13 13 55 55 92
End (yyyy mm) 2024 03 2023 03 2023 11 2023 11 2020 07 2020 07 2007 04
Longest Drawdown Depth (%)
same
same
same
same
same
same		 -12.20
Start to Recovery (# months)
685
Start (yyyy mm) 2024 01 2022 04 2020 08 2020 08 2011 09 2011 09 1876 01
Start to Bottom (# months) 1 7 27 27 52 52 37
Bottom (yyyy mm) 2024 01 2022 10 2022 10 2022 10 2015 12 2015 12 1879 01
Bottom to End (# months) 2 5 13 13 55 55 648
End (yyyy mm) 2024 03 2023 03 2023 11 2023 11 2020 07 2020 07 1933 01
Longest negative period (# months)
2 19 39 52 145 145 744
Start (yyyy mm) 2023 12 2022 03 2020 08 2015 02 2011 09 2011 09 1871 01
End (yyyy mm) 2024 01 2023 09 2023 10 2019 05 2023 09 2023 09 1932 12
Annualized Return (%) -0.95 -2.47 -0.22 -0.02 -0.30 -0.30 -0.16
Deepest Drawdown Depth (%) -4.53 -1.72 -18.82 -28.93 -28.93 -45.71 -45.71 -82.52
Start to Recovery (# months)
537* 3 24 48 48 158 158 537*
Start (yyyy mm) 2024 01 2022 04 2020 08 2020 08 2011 09 2011 09 1980 02
Start to Bottom (# months) 1 7 27 27 52 52 254
Bottom (yyyy mm) 2024 01 2022 10 2022 10 2022 10 2015 12 2015 12 2001 03
Bottom to End (# months) 2 17 21 21 106 106 283
End (yyyy mm) 2024 03 2024 03 2024 07 2024 07 2024 10 2024 10 -
Longest Drawdown Depth (%)
same
same
same
same
same
same		 -72.42
Start to Recovery (# months)
929
Start (yyyy mm) 2024 01 2022 04 2020 08 2020 08 2011 09 2011 09 1896 10
Start to Bottom (# months) 1 7 27 27 52 52 886
Bottom (yyyy mm) 2024 01 2022 10 2022 10 2022 10 2015 12 2015 12 1970 07
Bottom to End (# months) 2 17 21 21 106 106 43
End (yyyy mm) 2024 03 2024 03 2024 07 2024 07 2024 10 2024 10 1974 02
Longest negative period (# months)
3 26 47 93 159 159 1587
Start (yyyy mm) 2023 12 2022 01 2020 08 2015 02 2010 07 2010 07 1871 01
End (yyyy mm) 2024 02 2024 02 2024 06 2022 10 2023 09 2023 09 2003 03
Annualized Return (%) -2.69 -0.02 -1.11 -0.40 -0.03 -0.03 0.00
Drawdowns / Negative periods marked with * are in progress
RISK INDICATORS
1Y 3Y 5Y 10Y 20Y 30Y MAX
Standard Deviation (%) 9.20 13.08 14.28 13.98 16.72 15.54 12.67
Sharpe Ratio 3.52 0.88 0.70 0.49 0.47 0.27 -0.07
Sortino Ratio 5.51 1.32 1.04 0.74 0.67 0.40 -0.13
Ulcer Index 0.48 5.18 6.94 7.45 19.54 20.46 22.28
Ratio: Return / Standard Deviation 4.10 1.15 0.86 0.60 0.56 0.42 0.25
Ratio: Return / Deepest Drawdown 26.50 0.94 0.68 0.47 0.22 0.15 0.05
Positive Months (%)
83.33 55.55 51.66 50.00 52.50 51.11 81.41
Positive Months 10 20 31 60 126 184 1503
Negative Months 2 16 29 60 114 176 343
LONG TERM RETURNS
Inflation Adjusted:
Inflation Adjusted:
 1Y 3Y 5Y 10Y 20Y 30Y MAX
Best 10 Years Return (%) - Annualized 8.45 11.33 20.54 34.02
Worst 10 Years Return (%) - Annualized -1.05 -1.05 -5.99
Best 10 Years Return (%) - Annualized 5.41 9.09 17.65 24.69
Worst 10 Years Return (%) - Annualized -3.48 -3.48 -10.17
TIMEFRAMES
Inflation Adjusted:
Inflation Adjusted:
 1M 3M 6M 1Y 3Y 5Y 10Y 20Y 30Y MAX
··· As of Oct 2024 - Over the previous 30Y
Best Rolling Return (%) - Annualized 54.21 32.87 23.37 20.54 9.95 6.48
Worst Rolling Return (%) - Annualized -28.33 -15.02 -8.25 -1.05 4.91
Positive Periods (%) 63.0 69.2 72.0 96.6 100.0 100.0
Best Rolling Return (%) - Annualized 48.31 30.94 21.04 17.65 7.75 3.86
Worst Rolling Return (%) - Annualized -29.40 -15.83 -10.50 -3.48 2.65
Positive Periods (%) 56.4 60.0 68.4 82.9 100.0 100.0
95% VaR - Value at Risk (%) - Cumulative
6.76 10.91 14.33 15.30 29.89 29.27 0.00 0.00
95% CVaR - Conditional Value at Risk (%) 8.62 14.14 18.90 20.90 33.78 31.73 1.71 0.00
99% VaR - Value at Risk (%) - Cumulative
9.81 16.21 21.82 25.50 37.38 34.31 8.94 0.00
99% CVaR - Conditional Value at Risk (%) 11.76 19.58 26.59 27.82 38.23 34.88 10.02 0.00
Short term VaRs: analytical | 1+ year VaRs: historical data
Safe Withdrawal Rate (%) 82.56 24.17 13.87 6.91 5.06 4.08
Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (%) --- --- --- --- 2.11 2.77
% based on initial capital, inflation-adj. monthly withdrawals afterwards | Credits: BestRetirementPortfolio.com
··· All available data (Jan 1871 - Oct 2024)
Best Rolling Return (%) - Annualized 179.42 70.26 39.62 34.02 15.64 9.81
Worst Rolling Return (%) - Annualized -37.71 -15.32 -14.69 -5.99 -4.36 -0.43
Positive Periods (%) 72.9 76.2 76.3 78.1 84.3 93.4
Best Rolling Return (%) - Annualized 145.39 55.18 30.97 24.69 10.01 5.44
Worst Rolling Return (%) - Annualized -42.05 -20.23 -19.61 -10.17 -7.77 -3.39
Positive Periods (%) 46.1 41.8 41.6 45.8 54.2 66.9
95% VaR - Value at Risk (%) - Cumulative
5.70 9.46 12.82 12.17 18.86 21.71 18.02 11.78 2.73
95% CVaR - Conditional Value at Risk (%) 7.21 12.09 16.54 20.30 26.07 30.68 28.48 27.92 9.76
99% VaR - Value at Risk (%) - Cumulative
8.19 13.78 18.93 25.85 32.68 33.43 33.58 44.18 10.87
99% CVaR - Conditional Value at Risk (%) 9.77 16.52 22.81 31.53 35.63 43.62 37.61 52.81 12.01
Short term VaRs: analytical | 1+ year VaRs: historical data
Safe Withdrawal Rate (%) 72.10 19.10 10.00 4.59 1.73 1.06
Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (%) --- --- --- --- --- ---
% based on initial capital, inflation-adj. monthly withdrawals afterwards | Credits: BestRetirementPortfolio.com
Terms and Definitions
  • Annualized Portfolio Return: it's the annualized geometric mean return of the portfolio.
  • Deepest/Longest Drawdown: a drawdown refers to the decline in value from a relative peak value to a relative trough. The deepest (or maximum) drawdown is the maximum observed loss from a peak to a trough of a portfolio before a new peak is attained. The longest drawdown is the period observed from a peak to the subsequent peak with the greatest duration.
  • Longest negative period: it's the maximum period for which an overall negative return has been observed.
  • Standard Deviation: it's a measure of the dispersion of returns around the mean.
  • Sharpe Ratio: it's a measure of risk-adjusted performance of the portfolio. It's calculated by dividing the excess return of the portfolio over the risk-free rate by the portfolio standard deviation. The risk-free rate here considered is the 1-3 Mth T-Bill return.
  • Sortino Ratio: another measure of risk-adjusted performance of the portfolio. It's a modification of the Sharpe Ratio (same formula but the denominator is the portfolio downside standard deviation).
  • Ulcer Index: it's a measure of downside risk that quantifies the depth and duration of drawdowns in an investment portfolio.
  • Best/Worst 10Y returns: the best and the worst 10-year return over a time frame.
  • Rolling Returns: N-year returns over a time frame, calculated over all the available data source (best, worst, % of positive returns). Each rolling period, longer than the longest negative period, yielded a non-negative minimum return.
  • Value at Risk (VaR): it's an evaluation of a cumulative worst-case loss (in absolute value), associated with a probability (95%-99%) and a time horizon. For short term, it's calculated based on the expected return and standard deviation, assuming a normal distribution of monthly returns. For long term is retrieved by the historical rolling return data.
  • Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR): it represents the average expected loss if that worst-case threshold (95%-99%) is ever crossed.
  • Safe Withdrawal Rate (SWR): it's the percentage of the initial portfolio balance that can be withdrawn at the beginning of each month with inflation adjustment, without the portfolio running out of money in any case (money amount withdrawal).
    For instance: Your initial invested capital is 100.000$; withdrawal rate (annualized) is 4%. This means that, in the first month, you will withdraw 100.000 * 4% * 1/12 = 333.33$. The second month, you’ll withdraw 333.33$ plus the inflation monthly rate. You’ll continue adjusting your withdraw monthly for inflation.
  • Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (PWR): it's the percentage of the initial portfolio balance that can be withdrawn at the beginning of each month with inflation adjustment, preserving the original invested capital, adjusted for inflation too.
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Correlations as of Oct 31, 2024

Correlation measures to what degree the returns of two assets move in relation to each other. It is a statistical measure that describes the extent to which the returns of one asset are related to the returns of another asset.

The following table shows the monthly correlations of SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) ETF vs the main Asset Classes, over different timeframes. Columns are sortable (click on table header to sort).

SPDR GOLD TRUST (GLD) ETF
Monthly correlations as of 31 October 2024
Swipe left to see all data
Correlation vs GLD
Asset Class 1 Year 5 Years 10 Years 30 Years
VTI
 US Total Stock Market -0.14 0.24 0.08 0.06
SPY
 US Large Cap Blend -0.19 0.25 0.09 0.05
IJH
 US Mid Cap Blend 0.20 0.19 0.04 0.08
IJR
 US Small Cap Blend 0.20 0.13 -0.04 0.06
VNQ
 US REITs 0.11 0.29 0.20 0.14
QQQ
 US Technology -0.38 0.25 0.08 0.02
PFF
 US Preferred Stocks -0.14 0.27 0.21 0.04
EFA
 EAFE Stocks 0.02 0.29 0.15 0.18
VT
 World All Countries -0.06 0.28 0.13 0.10
EEM
 Emerging Markets 0.18 0.39 0.30 0.28
BND
 US Total Bond Market 0.03 0.43 0.45 0.30
TLT
 US Long Term Treasuries -0.01 0.35 0.42 0.20
BIL
 US Cash -0.17 0.17 0.16 0.02
TIP
 US TIPS 0.02 0.45 0.48 0.35
LQD
 US Invest. Grade Bonds 0.07 0.40 0.42 0.26
HYG
 US High Yield Bonds 0.07 0.32 0.27 0.15
CWB
 US Convertible Bonds 0.17 0.22 0.13 0.12
BNDX
 International Bonds 0.20 0.40 0.38 0.25
EMB
 Emerg. Market Bonds 0.13 0.41 0.41 0.31
DBC
 Commodities 0.41 0.06 0.08 0.30
Terms and Definitions
Correlation values range between -1 and +1
  • A correlation of +1 indicates that the returns of the two assets move in perfect synchrony; when one asset's returns go up, the other asset's returns also go up by the same percentage, and vice versa. This perfect positive correlation implies that the assets perform similarly in different market conditions.
  • A correlation of -1 indicates a perfect inverse relationship between the returns of the two assets. When one asset's returns go up, the other asset's returns go down by the same percentage. This perfect negative correlation suggests that the assets move in opposite directions, providing a diversification benefit by reducing overall portfolio risk.
  • A correlation of 0 means that there is no linear relationship between the returns of the two assets. The returns of one asset do not predict the returns of the other.
Learn about historical correlations here: see how the main asset classes relate to each other.

Drawdowns

A drawdown refers to the decline in value from a relative peak value to a relative trough. A maximum drawdown is the maximum observed loss from a peak to a trough of a portfolio before a new peak is attained.

SPDR GOLD TRUST (GLD) ETF
Drawdown periods
Drawdown periods - Inflation Adjusted
1 November 1994 - 31 October 2024 (30 Years)
1 January 1871 - 31 October 2024 (~154 years)
Inflation Adjusted:

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Rolling Returns

For a detailed rolling return analysis, click here
SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) ETF: Rolling Returns

A rolling return is a measure of investment performance that calculates the return of an investment over a set period of time, with the starting date rolling forward. This approach can provide a more accurate representation of the investment's historical performance and helps investors to evaluate the investment's consistency over time.

SPDR GOLD TRUST (GLD) ETF
Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Returns - Inflation Adjusted
1 November 1994 - 31 October 2024 (30 Years)
1 January 1871 - 31 October 2024 (~154 years)
Inflation Adjusted:

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The values shown for the rolling periods represent key statistical points: the minimum, maximum, median, and the 15th and 85th percentiles. These percentiles give insight into the distribution of the data, indicating the range within which the central 70% of the values lie, while the median represents the middle value.

Seasonality

In which months is it better to invest in SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) ETF?

Both the Average Return and the Gain Frequency (Win %) are useful to get an idea of what happened in the past. They are retrieved considering the time period from January 1871 to October 2024.

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For further information about the seasonality, check the Asset Class Seasonality page.

Monthly Returns

This section provides a visual/tabular representation of the performance variability in the SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) ETF over time. It illustrates the distribution of monthly returns, showcasing the range and frequency of positive and negative returns.

SPDR GOLD TRUST (GLD) ETF
Monthly Returns Distribution
1 November 1994 - 31 October 2024 (30 Years)
1 January 1871 - 31 October 2024 (~154 years)
184 Positive Months (51%) - 176 Negative Months (49%)
1503 Positive Months (81%) - 343 Negative Months (19%)

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Methodology

Returns, up to December 2004, have been derived using the historical series of equivalent ETFs / Assets.
You can find additional information on extended Data Sources here.

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