SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) to EUR Hedged: Rolling Returns

Time Period: from January 1950 to September 2024 (~75 years)
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This asset allocation includes ETFs not denominated in EUR. Returns are calculated using exchange rates or, if applicable, interest rate differentials for currency hedging.

When holding the SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) to EUR Hedged ETF, how long should you stay invested to have high probability to achieve a positive return?

Over the selected period (~75 years), the longest duration with a negative return was 347 months (from February 1980 to December 2008).

This indicates that, within the same timeframe, any rolling period of 348 months or more has consistently resulted in a positive return.

Understanding this metric is crucial as it highlights the importance of a safe investment horizon. Knowing the minimum duration required to likely see positive returns helps investors set realistic expectations and reinforces the strategy of staying invested through market cycles. This approach can mitigate the emotional reactions to short-term market fluctuations and enhance the likelihood of achieving financial goals.

Previous vs subsequent Returns

Is there a correlation between past and future returns over all 10-year rolling periods?

The following chart illustrates the relationship between past returns (x-axis) and subsequent returns (y-axis).

Data points are aggregated to show occurrences, and you can zoom in by clicking or drawing over the desired area.

SPDR GOLD TRUST (GLD) TO EUR HEDGED ETF
Previous vs Next Returns - 10 Years annualized
Time Period: 1 October 1994 - 30 September 2024 (30 Years)
Time Period: 1 January 1950 - 30 September 2024 (~75 years)

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As of Sep 30, 2024, the annualized return of the previous 10 years has been 6.30%.

Rolling Returns

A rolling return is a measure of investment performance that calculates the return of an investment over a set period of time, with the starting date rolling forward. This approach can provide a more accurate representation of the investment's historical performance and helps investors to evaluate the investment's consistency over time.

SPDR GOLD TRUST (GLD) TO EUR HEDGED ETF
Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Returns - Inflation Adjusted
Time Period: 1 October 1994 - 30 September 2024 (30 Years)
Time Period: 1 January 1950 - 30 September 2024 (~75 years)
Euro Inflation Adjusted:

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Rolling Period Analysis

By selecting the 'Rolling Period', the chart and data will update. To study a different date range, change the simulation settings.

SPDR GOLD TRUST (GLD) TO EUR HEDGED ETF
Rolling Returns Chart
Rolling Returns Chart - Inflation Adjusted
Time Period: 1 January 1950 - 30 September 2024 (~75 years)
Euro Inflation Adjusted:

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Swipe left to see all data
Worst Median Best Negative Periods
-41.61%
Apr 1981 - Mar 1982
+1.96% +164.11%
Feb 1979 - Jan 1980
34.09%
302 out of 886
-44.46%
Apr 1981 - Mar 1982
+0.02% +151.74%
Feb 1979 - Jan 1980
49.89%
442 out of 886
-34.16%
Jul 1980 - Jun 1982
+2.17% +88.06%
Apr 1972 - Mar 1974
34.78%
304 out of 874
-37.83%
Jul 1980 - Jun 1982
+0.19% +76.20%
Feb 1978 - Jan 1980
48.28%
422 out of 874
-19.52%
Nov 1980 - Oct 1983
+2.00% +64.50%
Apr 1971 - Mar 1974
33.76%
291 out of 862
-23.37%
Oct 1980 - Sep 1983
+0.06% +57.82%
Feb 1977 - Jan 1980
49.54%
427 out of 862
-19.39%
Oct 1980 - Sep 1984
+2.34% +51.39%
Sep 1976 - Aug 1980
26.35%
224 out of 850
-22.62%
Oct 1980 - Sep 1984
+0.35% +45.51%
Sep 1976 - Aug 1980
44.59%
379 out of 850
-18.54%
Mar 1980 - Feb 1985
+2.21% +39.67%
Jan 1970 - Dec 1974
25.89%
217 out of 838
-21.76%
Mar 1980 - Feb 1985
+0.31% +31.91%
Jan 1970 - Dec 1974
47.49%
398 out of 838
-13.75%
Mar 1980 - Feb 1986
+2.05% +29.86%
Apr 1968 - Mar 1974
25.54%
211 out of 826
-16.77%
Feb 1980 - Jan 1986
+0.03% +23.99%
Apr 1968 - Mar 1974
49.27%
407 out of 826
-10.25%
Feb 1980 - Jan 1987
+2.05% +35.62%
Feb 1973 - Jan 1980
26.41%
215 out of 814
-12.96%
Feb 1980 - Jan 1987
-0.11% +29.44%
Feb 1973 - Jan 1980
51.23%
417 out of 814
-9.56%
Oct 1980 - Sep 1988
+2.00% +36.12%
Feb 1972 - Jan 1980
25.69%
206 out of 802
-11.78%
Oct 1980 - Sep 1988
+0.01% +29.69%
Feb 1972 - Jan 1980
49.63%
398 out of 802
-9.65%
Oct 1980 - Sep 1989
+2.08% +34.94%
Feb 1971 - Jan 1980
23.92%
189 out of 790
-11.90%
Oct 1980 - Sep 1989
+0.11% +28.49%
Feb 1971 - Jan 1980
48.61%
384 out of 790
-8.97%
Jul 1980 - Jun 1990
+2.43% +32.27%
Feb 1970 - Jan 1980
21.47%
167 out of 778
-11.27%
Jul 1980 - Jun 1990
+0.15% +26.06%
Feb 1970 - Jan 1980
48.59%
378 out of 778
-8.10%
Oct 1980 - Sep 1991
+2.88% +27.79%
Dec 1969 - Nov 1980
17.10%
131 out of 766
-10.64%
Oct 1980 - Sep 1991
+0.13% +21.68%
Dec 1969 - Nov 1980
48.69%
373 out of 766
-7.37%
Feb 1980 - Jan 1992
+3.60% +25.68%
Feb 1968 - Jan 1980
16.05%
121 out of 754
-10.05%
Feb 1980 - Jan 1992
+1.17% +20.31%
Feb 1968 - Jan 1980
44.69%
337 out of 754
-6.92%
Feb 1980 - Jan 1993
+4.46% +23.37%
Oct 1967 - Sep 1980
17.25%
128 out of 742
-9.65%
Feb 1980 - Jan 1993
+1.76% +18.37%
Feb 1967 - Jan 1980
38.95%
289 out of 742
-5.26%
Feb 1980 - Jan 1994
+4.73% +21.59%
Feb 1966 - Jan 1980
15.62%
114 out of 730
-8.05%
Feb 1980 - Jan 1994
+2.40% +16.79%
Feb 1966 - Jan 1980
37.12%
271 out of 730
-4.89%
Feb 1980 - Jan 1995
+5.46% +20.02%
Feb 1965 - Jan 1980
15.46%
111 out of 718
-7.66%
Feb 1980 - Jan 1995
+3.12% +15.28%
Feb 1965 - Jan 1980
36.21%
260 out of 718
-4.57%
Oct 1980 - Sep 1996
+6.07% +18.71%
Feb 1964 - Jan 1980
15.30%
108 out of 706
-7.21%
Oct 1980 - Sep 1996
+3.83% +14.17%
Feb 1964 - Jan 1980
33.57%
237 out of 706
-5.29%
Dec 1980 - Nov 1997
+6.88% +17.57%
Feb 1963 - Jan 1980
13.69%
95 out of 694
-7.81%
Dec 1980 - Nov 1997
+4.23% +13.16%
Feb 1963 - Jan 1980
31.27%
217 out of 694
-5.64%
Sep 1980 - Aug 1998
+6.85% +16.56%
Feb 1962 - Jan 1980
10.85%
74 out of 682
-8.10%
Sep 1980 - Aug 1998
+4.37% +12.24%
Feb 1962 - Jan 1980
29.47%
201 out of 682
-5.82%
Jul 1980 - Jun 1999
+6.92% +15.70%
Feb 1961 - Jan 1980
10.30%
69 out of 670
-8.20%
Jul 1980 - Jun 1999
+4.26% +11.46%
Feb 1961 - Jan 1980
28.36%
190 out of 670
-5.55%
Oct 1980 - Sep 2000
+6.75% +14.82%
Feb 1960 - Jan 1980
10.18%
67 out of 658
-7.93%
Oct 1980 - Sep 2000
+4.08% +10.74%
Feb 1960 - Jan 1980
25.23%
166 out of 658
-2.74%
Feb 1980 - Jan 2005
+5.84% +12.27%
Feb 1955 - Jan 1980
3.51%
21 out of 598
-5.15%
Feb 1980 - Jan 2005
+3.45% +8.68%
Feb 1955 - Jan 1980
20.07%
120 out of 598
+0.66%
Feb 1980 - Jan 2010
+5.18% +10.25%
Feb 1950 - Jan 1980
0.00%
0 out of 538
-1.73%
Feb 1980 - Jan 2010
+2.60% +6.98%
Feb 1950 - Jan 1980
8.36%
45 out of 538
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