When holding the SPDR MSCI USA Small Cap Value Weighted (ZPRV.DE) ETF, how long should you stay invested to have high probability to achieve a positive return?
Over the selected period (~71 years), the longest duration with a negative return was 131 months (from April 1998 to February 2009).
This indicates that, within the same timeframe, any rolling period of 132 months or more has consistently resulted in a positive return.
Understanding this metric is crucial as it highlights the importance of a safe investment horizon. Knowing the minimum duration required to likely see positive returns helps investors set realistic expectations and reinforces the strategy of staying invested through market cycles. This approach can mitigate the emotional reactions to short-term market fluctuations and enhance the likelihood of achieving financial goals.
SPDR MSCI USA Small Cap Value Weighted (ZPRV.DE) ETF: Historical Returns
Previous vs subsequent Returns
Is there a correlation between past and future returns over all 10-year rolling periods?
The following chart illustrates the relationship between past returns (x-axis) and subsequent returns (y-axis).
Data points are aggregated to show occurrences, and you can zoom in by clicking or drawing over the desired area.
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As of Sep 30, 2024, the annualized return of the previous 10 years has been 11.07%.
Rolling Returns
A rolling return is a measure of investment performance that calculates the return of an investment over a set period of time, with the starting date rolling forward. This approach can provide a more accurate representation of the investment's historical performance and helps investors to evaluate the investment's consistency over time.
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Rolling Period Analysis
By selecting the 'Rolling Period', the chart and data will update. To study a different date range, change the simulation settings.
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Worst | Median | Best | Negative Periods |
---|---|---|---|
-42.97%
Apr 2002 - Mar 2003 |
+15.43% |
+122.22%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1983 |
24.91%
210 out of 843 |
-44.29%
Apr 2002 - Mar 2003 |
+12.74% |
+116.05%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1983 |
29.06%
245 out of 843 |
-28.22%
Mar 2007 - Feb 2009 |
+14.02% |
+64.68%
Feb 1982 - Jan 1984 |
16.25%
135 out of 831 |
-32.66%
Jan 1973 - Dec 1974 |
+11.36% |
+59.33%
Feb 1982 - Jan 1984 |
19.74%
164 out of 831 |
-19.97%
Apr 2006 - Mar 2009 |
+14.63% |
+60.62%
Jul 1980 - Jun 1983 |
13.80%
113 out of 819 |
-22.52%
Jan 1972 - Dec 1974 |
+12.10% |
+53.26%
Jul 1980 - Jun 1983 |
18.68%
153 out of 819 |
-11.61%
Jan 1971 - Dec 1974 |
+14.41% |
+49.96%
Apr 1980 - Mar 1984 |
10.66%
86 out of 807 |
-16.89%
Jan 1971 - Dec 1974 |
+11.58% |
+43.50%
Apr 1980 - Mar 1984 |
14.62%
118 out of 807 |
-8.93%
Jan 1970 - Dec 1974 |
+13.25% |
+48.70%
Apr 1980 - Mar 1985 |
8.18%
65 out of 795 |
-14.00%
Jan 1970 - Dec 1974 |
+11.00% |
+42.85%
Apr 1980 - Mar 1985 |
12.20%
97 out of 795 |
-10.92%
Jan 1969 - Dec 1974 |
+13.08% |
+43.63%
Mar 1979 - Feb 1985 |
4.73%
37 out of 783 |
-15.35%
Jan 1969 - Dec 1974 |
+10.79% |
+37.57%
Mar 1979 - Feb 1985 |
9.20%
72 out of 783 |
-7.14%
Apr 2002 - Mar 2009 |
+12.89% |
+40.90%
Mar 1978 - Feb 1985 |
3.76%
29 out of 771 |
-9.75%
Jan 1968 - Dec 1974 |
+10.40% |
+35.25%
Mar 1978 - Feb 1985 |
7.00%
54 out of 771 |
-3.81%
Mar 2001 - Feb 2009 |
+13.09% |
+38.14%
Oct 1975 - Sep 1983 |
1.98%
15 out of 759 |
-5.83%
Mar 2001 - Feb 2009 |
+10.86% |
+32.38%
Oct 1975 - Sep 1983 |
7.77%
59 out of 759 |
-0.67%
Nov 2000 - Oct 2009 |
+13.38% |
+40.33%
Jan 1975 - Dec 1983 |
0.54%
4 out of 747 |
-4.13%
Jan 1966 - Dec 1974 |
+10.92% |
+34.38%
Jan 1975 - Dec 1983 |
5.09%
38 out of 747 |
+1.38%
Sep 2001 - Aug 2011 |
+13.58% |
+38.40%
Jan 1975 - Dec 1984 |
0.00%
0 out of 735 |
-1.29%
Jan 1965 - Dec 1974 |
+10.89% |
+32.85%
Jan 1975 - Dec 1984 |
1.77%
13 out of 735 |
+0.00%
Apr 1998 - Mar 2009 |
+13.27% |
+35.53%
Jan 1975 - Dec 1985 |
0.00%
0 out of 723 |
-1.97%
Apr 1998 - Mar 2009 |
+10.51% |
+30.39%
Jan 1975 - Dec 1985 |
0.83%
6 out of 723 |
+3.34%
Dec 1997 - Nov 2009 |
+13.43% |
+31.52%
Jan 1975 - Dec 1986 |
0.00%
0 out of 711 |
+1.38%
Dec 1997 - Nov 2009 |
+10.73% |
+27.05%
Jan 1975 - Dec 1986 |
0.00%
0 out of 711 |
+4.10%
Apr 2007 - Mar 2020 |
+13.20% |
+30.05%
Oct 1974 - Sep 1987 |
0.00%
0 out of 699 |
+0.71%
Jan 1962 - Dec 1974 |
+10.75% |
+25.74%
Oct 1974 - Sep 1987 |
0.00%
0 out of 699 |
+3.55%
Apr 2006 - Mar 2020 |
+13.38% |
+27.65%
Jan 1975 - Dec 1988 |
0.00%
0 out of 687 |
+2.10%
Apr 2006 - Mar 2020 |
+10.70% |
+23.67%
Jan 1975 - Dec 1988 |
0.00%
0 out of 687 |
+5.28%
Aug 2005 - Jul 2020 |
+13.64% |
+27.48%
Oct 1974 - Sep 1989 |
0.00%
0 out of 675 |
+1.76%
Jan 1960 - Dec 1974 |
+10.64% |
+23.46%
Oct 1974 - Sep 1989 |
0.00%
0 out of 675 |
+5.37%
Apr 2004 - Mar 2020 |
+13.53% |
+24.22%
Sep 1973 - Aug 1989 |
0.00%
0 out of 663 |
+2.71%
Jan 1959 - Dec 1974 |
+10.33% |
+20.03%
Sep 1973 - Aug 1989 |
0.00%
0 out of 663 |
+5.96%
Jan 2002 - Dec 2018 |
+13.51% |
+23.65%
Jan 1975 - Dec 1991 |
0.00%
0 out of 651 |
+4.22%
Jan 2002 - Dec 2018 |
+10.04% |
+19.67%
Jan 1975 - Dec 1991 |
0.00%
0 out of 651 |
+3.61%
Apr 2002 - Mar 2020 |
+12.77% |
+24.62%
Jan 1975 - Dec 1992 |
0.00%
0 out of 639 |
+2.00%
Apr 2002 - Mar 2020 |
+9.88% |
+20.61%
Jan 1975 - Dec 1992 |
0.00%
0 out of 639 |
+4.71%
Apr 2001 - Mar 2020 |
+12.75% |
+24.95%
Jan 1975 - Dec 1993 |
0.00%
0 out of 627 |
+3.03%
Apr 2001 - Mar 2020 |
+9.71% |
+20.94%
Jan 1975 - Dec 1993 |
0.00%
0 out of 627 |
+5.70%
Apr 2000 - Mar 2020 |
+13.02% |
+22.96%
Jan 1975 - Dec 1994 |
0.00%
0 out of 615 |
+3.98%
Apr 2000 - Mar 2020 |
+10.00% |
+19.05%
Jan 1975 - Dec 1994 |
0.00%
0 out of 615 |
+8.04%
May 1998 - Apr 2023 |
+15.31% |
+22.63%
Jan 1975 - Dec 1999 |
0.00%
0 out of 555 |
+5.84%
May 1998 - Apr 2023 |
+11.35% |
+19.10%
Jan 1975 - Dec 1999 |
0.00%
0 out of 555 |
+9.64%
Apr 1990 - Mar 2020 |
+15.76% |
+20.11%
Jan 1975 - Dec 2004 |
0.00%
0 out of 495 |
+7.54%
Apr 1990 - Mar 2020 |
+12.04% |
+16.79%
Jan 1975 - Dec 2004 |
0.00%
0 out of 495 |
SPDR MSCI USA Small Cap Value Weighted (ZPRV.DE) ETF: Historical Returns