When holding the SPDR S&P 400 US Mid Cap (SPY4.DE) ETF, how long should you stay invested to have high probability to achieve a positive return?
Over the selected period (~71 years), the longest duration with a negative return was 128 months (from February 1964 to September 1974).
This indicates that, within the same timeframe, any rolling period of 129 months or more has consistently resulted in a positive return.
Understanding this metric is crucial as it highlights the importance of a safe investment horizon. Knowing the minimum duration required to likely see positive returns helps investors set realistic expectations and reinforces the strategy of staying invested through market cycles. This approach can mitigate the emotional reactions to short-term market fluctuations and enhance the likelihood of achieving financial goals.
SPDR S&P 400 US Mid Cap (SPY4.DE) ETF: Historical Returns
Previous vs subsequent Returns
Is there a correlation between past and future returns over all 10-year rolling periods?
The following chart illustrates the relationship between past returns (x-axis) and subsequent returns (y-axis).
Data points are aggregated to show occurrences, and you can zoom in by clicking or drawing over the desired area.
Loading data
Please wait
Loading data
Please wait
As of Aug 31, 2024, the annualized return of the previous 10 years has been 10.84%.
Rolling Returns
A rolling return is a measure of investment performance that calculates the return of an investment over a set period of time, with the starting date rolling forward. This approach can provide a more accurate representation of the investment's historical performance and helps investors to evaluate the investment's consistency over time.
Loading data
Please wait
Loading data
Please wait
Loading data
Please wait
Loading data
Please wait
Loading data
Please wait
Loading data
Please wait
Loading data
Please wait
Loading data
Please wait
Loading data
Please wait
Loading data
Please wait
Loading data
Please wait
Loading data
Please wait
Rolling Period Analysis
By selecting the 'Rolling Period', the chart and data will update. To study a different date range, change the simulation settings.
Loading data
Please wait
Loading data
Please wait
Worst | Median | Best | Negative Periods |
---|---|---|---|
-38.82%
Apr 2002 - Mar 2003 |
+12.78% |
+101.37%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1983 |
23.99%
202 out of 842 |
-41.00%
Oct 1973 - Sep 1974 |
+10.28% |
+95.77%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1983 |
29.33%
247 out of 842 |
-30.54%
Jan 1973 - Dec 1974 |
+13.03% |
+51.75%
Sep 1998 - Aug 2000 |
14.70%
122 out of 830 |
-34.97%
Jan 1973 - Dec 1974 |
+10.48% |
+49.39%
Sep 1998 - Aug 2000 |
19.52%
162 out of 830 |
-20.39%
Oct 1971 - Sep 1974 |
+12.63% |
+48.47%
Jul 1980 - Jun 1983 |
14.30%
117 out of 818 |
-25.24%
Oct 1971 - Sep 1974 |
+9.80% |
+41.67%
Jul 1980 - Jun 1983 |
17.85%
146 out of 818 |
-12.89%
Jan 1971 - Dec 1974 |
+12.52% |
+39.88%
Dec 1979 - Nov 1983 |
9.43%
76 out of 806 |
-18.09%
Jan 1971 - Dec 1974 |
+9.73% |
+33.38%
Dec 1979 - Nov 1983 |
14.64%
118 out of 806 |
-11.63%
Oct 1969 - Sep 1974 |
+11.81% |
+38.47%
Dec 1978 - Nov 1983 |
5.42%
43 out of 794 |
-16.48%
Oct 1969 - Sep 1974 |
+9.41% |
+32.72%
Apr 1980 - Mar 1985 |
12.97%
103 out of 794 |
-10.88%
Oct 1968 - Sep 1974 |
+11.40% |
+35.39%
Mar 1979 - Feb 1985 |
5.12%
40 out of 782 |
-15.26%
Oct 1968 - Sep 1974 |
+8.82% |
+29.67%
Mar 1979 - Feb 1985 |
12.66%
99 out of 782 |
-7.25%
Oct 1967 - Sep 1974 |
+11.82% |
+32.60%
Mar 1978 - Feb 1985 |
4.55%
35 out of 770 |
-11.35%
Oct 1967 - Sep 1974 |
+9.17% |
+27.28%
Mar 1978 - Feb 1985 |
13.38%
103 out of 770 |
-3.98%
Jun 2001 - May 2009 |
+11.74% |
+27.64%
Oct 1975 - Sep 1983 |
4.75%
36 out of 758 |
-7.14%
Jan 1967 - Dec 1974 |
+9.46% |
+23.75%
Sep 1992 - Aug 2000 |
13.72%
104 out of 758 |
-3.14%
Jan 1966 - Dec 1974 |
+11.85% |
+30.08%
Oct 1974 - Sep 1983 |
3.08%
23 out of 746 |
-6.97%
Jan 1966 - Dec 1974 |
+9.44% |
+24.41%
Oct 1974 - Sep 1983 |
12.73%
95 out of 746 |
-1.17%
Oct 1964 - Sep 1974 |
+11.94% |
+28.18%
Oct 1974 - Sep 1984 |
0.41%
3 out of 734 |
-5.05%
Oct 1964 - Sep 1974 |
+9.58% |
+23.09%
Nov 1990 - Oct 2000 |
9.13%
67 out of 734 |
+0.55%
Jan 1964 - Dec 1974 |
+12.09% |
+25.92%
Jan 1975 - Dec 1985 |
0.00%
0 out of 722 |
-3.26%
Oct 1963 - Sep 1974 |
+9.66% |
+21.15%
Jan 1975 - Dec 1985 |
7.62%
55 out of 722 |
+1.99%
Jan 1963 - Dec 1974 |
+12.38% |
+23.90%
Oct 1974 - Sep 1986 |
0.00%
0 out of 710 |
-1.83%
Jan 1963 - Dec 1974 |
+9.88% |
+19.50%
Oct 1974 - Sep 1986 |
3.24%
23 out of 710 |
+1.02%
Jan 1962 - Dec 1974 |
+12.34% |
+23.72%
Oct 1974 - Sep 1987 |
0.00%
0 out of 698 |
-2.67%
Jan 1962 - Dec 1974 |
+9.62% |
+19.62%
Oct 1974 - Sep 1987 |
2.01%
14 out of 698 |
+2.58%
Jan 1961 - Dec 1974 |
+12.01% |
+21.25%
Oct 1974 - Sep 1988 |
0.00%
0 out of 686 |
-1.11%
Jan 1961 - Dec 1974 |
+9.30% |
+17.40%
Oct 1974 - Sep 1988 |
1.02%
7 out of 686 |
+2.83%
Jan 1960 - Dec 1974 |
+11.37% |
+21.78%
Oct 1974 - Sep 1989 |
0.00%
0 out of 674 |
-0.66%
Jan 1960 - Dec 1974 |
+8.80% |
+17.94%
Oct 1974 - Sep 1989 |
0.59%
4 out of 674 |
+3.29%
Jan 1959 - Dec 1974 |
+11.24% |
+18.62%
Feb 1978 - Jan 1994 |
0.00%
0 out of 662 |
-0.09%
Jan 1959 - Dec 1974 |
+8.44% |
+15.04%
Apr 1982 - Mar 1998 |
0.15%
1 out of 662 |
+5.21%
Dec 1961 - Nov 1978 |
+11.03% |
+19.13%
Oct 1974 - Sep 1991 |
0.00%
0 out of 650 |
+1.39%
Dec 1961 - Nov 1978 |
+8.10% |
+15.44%
Aug 1980 - Jul 1997 |
0.00%
0 out of 650 |
+5.22%
Jan 1957 - Dec 1974 |
+11.11% |
+19.83%
Apr 1980 - Mar 1998 |
0.00%
0 out of 638 |
+1.98%
Jan 1957 - Dec 1974 |
+8.33% |
+16.64%
Apr 1980 - Mar 1998 |
0.00%
0 out of 638 |
+5.34%
Oct 1955 - Sep 1974 |
+11.20% |
+19.63%
Jan 1975 - Dec 1993 |
0.00%
0 out of 626 |
+2.21%
Oct 1955 - Sep 1974 |
+8.19% |
+15.79%
Jan 1975 - Dec 1993 |
0.00%
0 out of 626 |
+6.04%
Apr 2000 - Mar 2020 |
+11.19% |
+19.90%
Apr 1980 - Mar 2000 |
0.00%
0 out of 614 |
+2.90%
Jan 1955 - Dec 1974 |
+8.17% |
+16.85%
Apr 1980 - Mar 2000 |
0.00%
0 out of 614 |
+8.43%
Jan 1984 - Dec 2008 |
+11.60% |
+19.30%
Jan 1975 - Dec 1999 |
0.00%
0 out of 554 |
+5.27%
Nov 1965 - Oct 1990 |
+8.58% |
+15.87%
Jan 1975 - Dec 1999 |
0.00%
0 out of 554 |
+10.12%
Nov 1960 - Oct 1990 |
+12.13% |
+16.52%
Oct 1974 - Sep 2004 |
0.00%
0 out of 494 |
+6.41%
Nov 1960 - Oct 1990 |
+9.09% |
+13.27%
Oct 1974 - Sep 2004 |
0.00%
0 out of 494 |
SPDR S&P 400 US Mid Cap (SPY4.DE) ETF: Historical Returns