Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US (VEU): Rolling Returns

Time Period: from January 1970 to December 2024 (~55 years)
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When holding the Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US (VEU) ETF, how long should you stay invested to have high probability to achieve a positive return?

Over the selected period (~55 years), the longest duration with a negative return was 172 months (from December 1988 to March 2003).

This indicates that, within the same timeframe, any rolling period of 173 months or more has consistently resulted in a positive return.

Understanding this metric is crucial as it highlights the importance of a safe investment horizon. Knowing the minimum duration required to likely see positive returns helps investors set realistic expectations and reinforces the strategy of staying invested through market cycles. This approach can mitigate the emotional reactions to short-term market fluctuations and enhance the likelihood of achieving financial goals.

Previous vs subsequent Returns

Is there a correlation between past and future returns over all 10-year rolling periods?

The following chart illustrates the relationship between past returns (x-axis) and subsequent returns (y-axis).

Data points are aggregated to show occurrences, and you can zoom in by clicking or drawing over the desired area.

VANGUARD FTSE ALL-WORLD EX-US (VEU) ETF
Previous vs Next Returns - 10 Years annualized
Time Period: 1 January 1995 - 31 December 2024 (30 Years)
Time Period: 1 January 1970 - 31 December 2024 (~55 years)

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As of Dec 31, 2024, the annualized return of the previous 10 years has been 5.15%.

Rolling Returns

A rolling return is a measure of investment performance that calculates the return of an investment over a set period of time, with the starting date rolling forward. This approach can provide a more accurate representation of the investment's historical performance and helps investors to evaluate the investment's consistency over time.

VANGUARD FTSE ALL-WORLD EX-US (VEU) ETF
Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Returns - Inflation Adjusted
Time Period: 1 January 1995 - 31 December 2024 (30 Years)
Time Period: 1 January 1970 - 31 December 2024 (~55 years)
US Inflation Adjusted:

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Rolling Period Analysis

By selecting the 'Rolling Period', the chart and data will update. To study a different date range, change the simulation settings.

VANGUARD FTSE ALL-WORLD EX-US (VEU) ETF
Rolling Returns Chart
Rolling Returns Chart - Inflation Adjusted
Time Period: 1 January 1970 - 31 December 2024 (~55 years)
US Inflation Adjusted:

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Swipe left to see all data
Worst Median Best Negative Periods
-51.47%
Mar 2008 - Feb 2009
+9.93% +88.60%
Sep 1985 - Aug 1986
30.97%
201 out of 649
-51.48%
Mar 2008 - Feb 2009
+5.82% +85.67%
Sep 1985 - Aug 1986
38.52%
250 out of 649
-28.53%
Mar 2007 - Feb 2009
+7.76% +73.16%
May 1985 - Apr 1987
25.43%
162 out of 637
-29.97%
Mar 2007 - Feb 2009
+3.59% +68.73%
May 1985 - Apr 1987
36.58%
233 out of 637
-19.17%
Apr 2000 - Mar 2003
+6.43% +57.29%
Jun 1984 - May 1987
17.60%
110 out of 625
-21.11%
Apr 2000 - Mar 2003
+3.29% +52.76%
Jun 1984 - May 1987
34.88%
218 out of 625
-9.50%
Apr 1999 - Mar 2003
+6.45% +43.11%
Jun 1984 - May 1988
14.85%
91 out of 613
-11.95%
Apr 1999 - Mar 2003
+2.84% +38.64%
Jun 1984 - May 1988
30.02%
184 out of 613
-6.99%
Apr 1998 - Mar 2003
+6.67% +40.26%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1987
11.81%
71 out of 601
-9.32%
Apr 1998 - Mar 2003
+2.80% +35.99%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1987
29.78%
179 out of 601
-3.84%
Apr 1997 - Mar 2003
+6.92% +34.75%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1988
4.41%
26 out of 589
-6.06%
Apr 1997 - Mar 2003
+2.73% +30.44%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1988
22.75%
134 out of 589
-3.15%
Apr 1996 - Mar 2003
+6.59% +31.92%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1989
3.29%
19 out of 577
-5.44%
Apr 1996 - Mar 2003
+3.25% +27.39%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1989
16.12%
93 out of 577
-1.98%
Oct 1994 - Sep 2002
+7.08% +26.62%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1990
3.72%
21 out of 565
-4.30%
Oct 1994 - Sep 2002
+3.55% +22.08%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1990
16.64%
94 out of 565
-3.00%
Mar 2000 - Feb 2009
+7.03% +23.36%
May 1978 - Apr 1987
3.98%
22 out of 553
-5.39%
Mar 2000 - Feb 2009
+3.49% +17.33%
Apr 1980 - Mar 1989
15.01%
83 out of 553
-0.21%
Mar 1999 - Feb 2009
+6.83% +23.88%
May 1977 - Apr 1987
0.18%
1 out of 541
-3.10%
Aug 1972 - Jul 1982
+3.42% +16.31%
May 1977 - Apr 1987
10.35%
56 out of 541
-0.01%
Mar 1998 - Feb 2009
+6.81% +22.66%
Apr 1977 - Mar 1988
0.19%
1 out of 529
-2.45%
Mar 1998 - Feb 2009
+3.11% +15.41%
Apr 1977 - Mar 1988
6.99%
37 out of 529
+0.22%
Mar 1991 - Feb 2003
+6.88% +21.67%
Feb 1977 - Jan 1989
0.00%
0 out of 517
-2.44%
Oct 1989 - Sep 2001
+3.27% +14.59%
Mar 1977 - Feb 1989
9.28%
48 out of 517
-0.72%
Oct 1989 - Sep 2002
+7.20% +22.08%
Oct 1974 - Sep 1987
1.19%
6 out of 505
-3.51%
Oct 1989 - Sep 2002
+3.95% +14.64%
Oct 1974 - Sep 1987
7.92%
40 out of 505
-0.32%
Mar 1989 - Feb 2003
+7.10% +20.34%
Jan 1975 - Dec 1988
0.61%
3 out of 493
-3.21%
Mar 1989 - Feb 2003
+3.99% +13.30%
Jan 1975 - Dec 1988
6.69%
33 out of 493
+0.23%
Apr 1988 - Mar 2003
+6.80% +20.41%
Oct 1974 - Sep 1989
0.00%
0 out of 481
-2.78%
Apr 1988 - Mar 2003
+4.02% +13.38%
Oct 1974 - Sep 1989
8.11%
39 out of 481
+1.34%
May 1987 - Apr 2003
+7.02% +17.32%
Sep 1971 - Aug 1987
0.00%
0 out of 469
-1.70%
Apr 1987 - Mar 2003
+4.48% +11.13%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1998
3.20%
15 out of 469
+2.56%
Mar 1992 - Feb 2009
+6.57% +18.29%
Jul 1970 - Jun 1987
0.00%
0 out of 457
+0.01%
Mar 1992 - Feb 2009
+4.14% +11.05%
Jul 1970 - Jun 1987
0.00%
0 out of 457
+1.89%
Mar 1991 - Feb 2009
+6.52% +17.68%
Jul 1970 - Jun 1988
0.00%
0 out of 445
-0.66%
Mar 1991 - Feb 2009
+3.95% +10.66%
Aug 1982 - Jul 2000
0.22%
1 out of 445
+1.47%
Mar 1990 - Feb 2009
+6.75% +17.31%
Aug 1970 - Jul 1989
0.00%
0 out of 433
-1.20%
Mar 1990 - Feb 2009
+4.01% +10.35%
Aug 1970 - Jul 1989
1.39%
6 out of 433
+1.34%
Mar 1989 - Feb 2009
+7.12% +16.32%
Jul 1970 - Jun 1990
0.00%
0 out of 421
-1.45%
Mar 1989 - Feb 2009
+4.28% +9.50%
Jul 1970 - Jun 1990
1.66%
7 out of 421
+3.79%
Jun 1987 - May 2012
+8.21% +13.64%
Jan 1975 - Dec 1999
0.00%
0 out of 361
+0.90%
Jun 1987 - May 2012
+4.61% +9.12%
Aug 1982 - Jul 2007
0.00%
0 out of 361
+3.93%
Jan 1989 - Dec 2018
+8.64% +12.75%
Jul 1970 - Jun 2000
0.00%
0 out of 301
+1.40%
Jan 1989 - Dec 2018
+4.86% +7.49%
Nov 1977 - Oct 2007
0.00%
0 out of 301
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