Vanguard FTSE Pacific (VPL) to EUR Hedged: Rolling Returns

Time Period: from January 1970 to September 2024 (~55 years)
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This asset allocation includes ETFs not denominated in EUR. Returns are calculated using exchange rates or, if applicable, interest rate differentials for currency hedging.

When holding the Vanguard FTSE Pacific (VPL) to EUR Hedged ETF, how long should you stay invested to have high probability to achieve a positive return?

Over the selected period (~55 years), the longest duration with a negative return was 264 months (from May 1987 to April 2009).

This indicates that, within the same timeframe, any rolling period of 265 months or more has consistently resulted in a positive return.

Understanding this metric is crucial as it highlights the importance of a safe investment horizon. Knowing the minimum duration required to likely see positive returns helps investors set realistic expectations and reinforces the strategy of staying invested through market cycles. This approach can mitigate the emotional reactions to short-term market fluctuations and enhance the likelihood of achieving financial goals.

Previous vs subsequent Returns

Is there a correlation between past and future returns over all 10-year rolling periods?

The following chart illustrates the relationship between past returns (x-axis) and subsequent returns (y-axis).

Data points are aggregated to show occurrences, and you can zoom in by clicking or drawing over the desired area.

VANGUARD FTSE PACIFIC (VPL) TO EUR HEDGED ETF
Previous vs Next Returns - 10 Years annualized
Time Period: 1 October 1994 - 30 September 2024 (30 Years)
Time Period: 1 January 1970 - 30 September 2024 (~55 years)

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As of Sep 30, 2024, the annualized return of the previous 10 years has been 4.31%.

Rolling Returns

A rolling return is a measure of investment performance that calculates the return of an investment over a set period of time, with the starting date rolling forward. This approach can provide a more accurate representation of the investment's historical performance and helps investors to evaluate the investment's consistency over time.

VANGUARD FTSE PACIFIC (VPL) TO EUR HEDGED ETF
Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Returns - Inflation Adjusted
Time Period: 1 October 1994 - 30 September 2024 (30 Years)
Time Period: 1 January 1970 - 30 September 2024 (~55 years)
Euro Inflation Adjusted:

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Rolling Period Analysis

By selecting the 'Rolling Period', the chart and data will update. To study a different date range, change the simulation settings.

VANGUARD FTSE PACIFIC (VPL) TO EUR HEDGED ETF
Rolling Returns Chart
Rolling Returns Chart - Inflation Adjusted
Time Period: 1 January 1970 - 30 September 2024 (~55 years)
Euro Inflation Adjusted:

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Swipe left to see all data
Worst Median Best Negative Periods
-43.49%
Mar 2008 - Feb 2009
+8.06% +114.59%
Dec 1971 - Nov 1972
35.45%
229 out of 646
-44.15%
Mar 2008 - Feb 2009
+5.22% +112.21%
Oct 1985 - Sep 1986
40.09%
259 out of 646
-27.53%
Mar 2007 - Feb 2009
+6.95% +83.65%
May 1985 - Apr 1987
31.86%
202 out of 634
-29.10%
Mar 2007 - Feb 2009
+3.82% +83.65%
May 1985 - Apr 1987
38.49%
244 out of 634
-22.28%
Apr 2000 - Mar 2003
+5.73% +62.38%
Jun 1984 - May 1987
27.33%
170 out of 622
-24.08%
Apr 2000 - Mar 2003
+3.34% +61.11%
Jun 1984 - May 1987
37.30%
232 out of 622
-14.82%
Sep 1994 - Aug 1998
+5.84% +47.83%
Jun 1984 - May 1988
26.39%
161 out of 610
-16.36%
Sep 1994 - Aug 1998
+3.10% +46.52%
Jun 1984 - May 1988
37.54%
229 out of 610
-10.45%
Oct 1996 - Sep 2001
+5.93% +41.01%
Sep 1982 - Aug 1987
21.40%
128 out of 598
-12.09%
Sep 1993 - Aug 1998
+3.00% +38.95%
Sep 1982 - Aug 1987
33.44%
200 out of 598
-10.19%
Feb 1996 - Jan 2002
+5.44% +37.04%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1988
12.63%
74 out of 586
-11.69%
Feb 1996 - Jan 2002
+2.82% +35.10%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1988
27.47%
161 out of 586
-10.59%
May 1996 - Apr 2003
+5.73% +32.50%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1989
10.80%
62 out of 574
-12.17%
May 1996 - Apr 2003
+3.81% +30.39%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1989
24.04%
138 out of 574
-8.54%
May 1995 - Apr 2003
+5.81% +27.04%
Apr 1980 - Mar 1988
13.17%
74 out of 562
-10.23%
May 1995 - Apr 2003
+3.36% +23.76%
Apr 1980 - Mar 1988
24.38%
137 out of 562
-7.30%
May 1994 - Apr 2003
+5.45% +24.02%
Apr 1980 - Mar 1989
14.91%
82 out of 550
-9.09%
May 1994 - Apr 2003
+3.37% +20.83%
Apr 1980 - Mar 1989
24.00%
132 out of 550
-5.12%
May 1993 - Apr 2003
+5.35% +23.39%
Jun 1977 - May 1987
14.31%
77 out of 538
-7.03%
May 1993 - Apr 2003
+3.25% +19.62%
Jun 1977 - May 1987
27.14%
146 out of 538
-3.16%
Sep 1987 - Aug 1998
+4.98% +22.64%
Apr 1977 - Mar 1988
13.31%
70 out of 526
-5.68%
Sep 1987 - Aug 1998
+2.60% +19.07%
May 1977 - Apr 1988
28.14%
148 out of 526
-4.16%
Feb 1990 - Jan 2002
+4.85% +21.54%
Oct 1975 - Sep 1987
10.89%
56 out of 514
-6.50%
Feb 1990 - Jan 2002
+2.72% +17.78%
Dec 1976 - Nov 1988
25.88%
133 out of 514
-4.42%
Jan 1990 - Dec 2002
+5.29% +22.30%
Oct 1974 - Sep 1987
9.76%
49 out of 502
-6.77%
Jan 1990 - Dec 2002
+3.42% +18.25%
Oct 1974 - Sep 1987
24.90%
125 out of 502
-4.11%
Mar 1989 - Feb 2003
+5.23% +20.97%
Jan 1975 - Dec 1988
12.24%
60 out of 490
-6.45%
Mar 1989 - Feb 2003
+3.10% +17.19%
Jan 1975 - Dec 1988
21.84%
107 out of 490
-3.69%
May 1988 - Apr 2003
+5.04% +20.46%
Oct 1974 - Sep 1989
12.34%
59 out of 478
-6.06%
May 1988 - Apr 2003
+3.14% +16.66%
Oct 1974 - Sep 1989
23.64%
113 out of 478
-2.59%
May 1987 - Apr 2003
+5.00% +19.59%
Jun 1971 - May 1987
10.52%
49 out of 466
-4.91%
May 1987 - Apr 2003
+3.25% +14.92%
Jun 1971 - May 1987
24.89%
116 out of 466
-0.40%
Oct 1994 - Sep 2011
+5.08% +20.61%
Jul 1970 - Jun 1987
2.42%
11 out of 454
-2.69%
May 1988 - Apr 2005
+3.31% +15.84%
Jul 1970 - Jun 1987
22.69%
103 out of 454
-0.78%
Mar 1991 - Feb 2009
+4.70% +20.22%
Jul 1970 - Jun 1988
1.13%
5 out of 442
-2.95%
Mar 1991 - Feb 2009
+2.76% +15.64%
Jul 1970 - Jun 1988
22.62%
100 out of 442
-1.45%
Mar 1990 - Feb 2009
+5.49% +19.27%
Aug 1970 - Jul 1989
1.40%
6 out of 430
-3.73%
Dec 1989 - Nov 2008
+3.28% +14.80%
Aug 1970 - Jul 1989
22.79%
98 out of 430
-1.94%
Mar 1989 - Feb 2009
+5.66% +17.46%
Jul 1970 - Jun 1990
1.91%
8 out of 418
-4.21%
Mar 1989 - Feb 2009
+3.59% +13.12%
Jul 1970 - Jun 1990
19.14%
80 out of 418
+0.91%
Jun 1987 - May 2012
+5.87% +14.83%
Aug 1970 - Jul 1995
0.00%
0 out of 358
-1.38%
Jun 1987 - May 2012
+3.41% +10.66%
Aug 1970 - Jul 1995
13.13%
47 out of 358
+1.55%
Jan 1989 - Dec 2018
+6.31% +12.40%
Jul 1970 - Jun 2000
0.00%
0 out of 298
-0.51%
Jan 1989 - Dec 2018
+3.84% +8.70%
Jul 1970 - Jun 2000
6.71%
20 out of 298
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