Vanguard FTSE Pacific (VPL) to EUR: Rolling Returns

Time Period: from January 1970 to September 2024 (~55 years)
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This asset allocation includes ETFs not denominated in EUR. Returns are calculated using exchange rates or, if applicable, interest rate differentials for currency hedging.

When holding the Vanguard FTSE Pacific (VPL) to EUR ETF, how long should you stay invested to have high probability to achieve a positive return?

Over the selected period (~55 years), the longest duration with a negative return was 288 months (from February 1989 to January 2013).

This indicates that, within the same timeframe, any rolling period of 289 months or more has consistently resulted in a positive return.

Understanding this metric is crucial as it highlights the importance of a safe investment horizon. Knowing the minimum duration required to likely see positive returns helps investors set realistic expectations and reinforces the strategy of staying invested through market cycles. This approach can mitigate the emotional reactions to short-term market fluctuations and enhance the likelihood of achieving financial goals.

Previous vs subsequent Returns

Is there a correlation between past and future returns over all 10-year rolling periods?

The following chart illustrates the relationship between past returns (x-axis) and subsequent returns (y-axis).

Data points are aggregated to show occurrences, and you can zoom in by clicking or drawing over the desired area.

VANGUARD FTSE PACIFIC (VPL) TO EUR ETF
Previous vs Next Returns - 10 Years annualized
Time Period: 1 October 1994 - 30 September 2024 (30 Years)
Time Period: 1 January 1970 - 30 September 2024 (~55 years)

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As of Sep 30, 2024, the annualized return of the previous 10 years has been 7.02%.

Rolling Returns

A rolling return is a measure of investment performance that calculates the return of an investment over a set period of time, with the starting date rolling forward. This approach can provide a more accurate representation of the investment's historical performance and helps investors to evaluate the investment's consistency over time.

VANGUARD FTSE PACIFIC (VPL) TO EUR ETF
Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Returns - Inflation Adjusted
Time Period: 1 October 1994 - 30 September 2024 (30 Years)
Time Period: 1 January 1970 - 30 September 2024 (~55 years)
Euro Inflation Adjusted:

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Rolling Period Analysis

By selecting the 'Rolling Period', the chart and data will update. To study a different date range, change the simulation settings.

VANGUARD FTSE PACIFIC (VPL) TO EUR ETF
Rolling Returns Chart
Rolling Returns Chart - Inflation Adjusted
Time Period: 1 January 1970 - 30 September 2024 (~55 years)
Euro Inflation Adjusted:

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Swipe left to see all data
Worst Median Best Negative Periods
-48.52%
Oct 1989 - Sep 1990
+8.78% +106.17%
Dec 1971 - Nov 1972
32.35%
209 out of 646
-50.61%
Oct 1989 - Sep 1990
+6.62% +93.79%
Dec 1971 - Nov 1972
37.62%
243 out of 646
-29.59%
Jun 2001 - May 2003
+9.77% +61.60%
Dec 1970 - Nov 1972
26.81%
170 out of 634
-31.67%
Jan 1973 - Dec 1974
+7.70% +55.46%
Oct 1985 - Sep 1987
32.33%
205 out of 634
-25.68%
Apr 2000 - Mar 2003
+8.41% +48.78%
Jun 1984 - May 1987
23.47%
146 out of 622
-27.39%
Apr 2000 - Mar 2003
+5.76% +47.61%
Jun 1984 - May 1987
30.87%
192 out of 622
-15.00%
Aug 1988 - Jul 1992
+7.58% +42.17%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1986
22.46%
137 out of 610
-17.93%
Aug 1988 - Jul 1992
+4.69% +39.74%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1986
29.18%
178 out of 610
-10.11%
Sep 1993 - Aug 1998
+7.17% +41.59%
Jun 1982 - May 1987
21.57%
129 out of 598
-11.89%
Sep 1993 - Aug 1998
+4.87% +39.23%
Jun 1982 - May 1987
31.77%
190 out of 598
-9.06%
Jun 1997 - May 2003
+5.72% +37.69%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1988
15.70%
92 out of 586
-10.69%
Jun 1997 - May 2003
+2.67% +35.74%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1988
28.33%
166 out of 586
-8.63%
May 1996 - Apr 2003
+6.51% +36.15%
Jun 1980 - May 1987
18.82%
108 out of 574
-10.25%
May 1996 - Apr 2003
+3.87% +32.48%
Jun 1980 - May 1987
29.44%
169 out of 574
-6.13%
Nov 2000 - Oct 2008
+6.93% +32.92%
Apr 1980 - Mar 1988
17.44%
98 out of 562
-8.27%
Nov 2000 - Oct 2008
+4.35% +29.49%
Apr 1980 - Mar 1988
25.80%
145 out of 562
-7.89%
Apr 2000 - Mar 2009
+6.71% +31.47%
Apr 1980 - Mar 1989
15.64%
86 out of 550
-9.81%
Apr 2000 - Mar 2009
+4.49% +28.09%
Apr 1980 - Mar 1989
22.55%
124 out of 550
-4.92%
Oct 1988 - Sep 1998
+6.84% +28.22%
Nov 1979 - Oct 1989
14.68%
79 out of 538
-7.51%
Oct 1988 - Sep 1998
+4.46% +24.76%
Dec 1979 - Nov 1989
25.84%
139 out of 538
-3.82%
Oct 1987 - Sep 1998
+6.67% +27.86%
Feb 1978 - Jan 1989
14.26%
75 out of 526
-6.32%
Oct 1987 - Sep 1998
+4.79% +24.17%
Feb 1978 - Jan 1989
30.42%
160 out of 526
-2.98%
Mar 1997 - Feb 2009
+6.12% +25.81%
May 1975 - Apr 1987
13.62%
70 out of 514
-5.13%
Jun 1991 - May 2003
+4.37% +21.98%
Feb 1977 - Jan 1989
28.79%
148 out of 514
-4.04%
Jan 1990 - Dec 2002
+6.15% +26.34%
Oct 1974 - Sep 1987
12.95%
65 out of 502
-6.40%
Jan 1990 - Dec 2002
+4.25% +22.15%
Oct 1974 - Sep 1987
26.89%
135 out of 502
-4.60%
Jun 1989 - May 2003
+6.04% +25.15%
Feb 1975 - Jan 1989
14.69%
72 out of 490
-6.91%
Jun 1989 - May 2003
+4.27% +21.26%
Feb 1975 - Jan 1989
27.96%
137 out of 490
-3.31%
Mar 1994 - Feb 2009
+5.64% +24.55%
Oct 1974 - Sep 1989
12.97%
62 out of 478
-5.66%
Jun 1988 - May 2003
+3.89% +20.62%
Oct 1974 - Sep 1989
26.36%
126 out of 478
-2.61%
Jun 1987 - May 2003
+5.38% +21.58%
Sep 1971 - Aug 1987
12.02%
56 out of 466
-4.92%
Jun 1987 - May 2003
+3.65% +16.89%
Sep 1971 - Aug 1987
26.61%
124 out of 466
-0.75%
Oct 1987 - Sep 2004
+4.89% +22.28%
Jul 1970 - Jun 1987
7.27%
33 out of 454
-3.14%
May 1988 - Apr 2005
+2.91% +17.44%
Jul 1970 - Jun 1987
29.07%
132 out of 454
-0.73%
Mar 1991 - Feb 2009
+4.90% +21.91%
Jul 1970 - Jun 1988
3.85%
17 out of 442
-2.92%
Apr 1991 - Mar 2009
+3.08% +17.26%
Jul 1970 - Jun 1988
25.79%
114 out of 442
-2.18%
Dec 1989 - Nov 2008
+5.08% +21.25%
Aug 1970 - Jul 1989
4.19%
18 out of 430
-4.51%
Dec 1989 - Nov 2008
+3.16% +16.71%
Aug 1970 - Jul 1989
21.40%
92 out of 430
-2.63%
Mar 1989 - Feb 2009
+5.10% +18.73%
Jul 1970 - Jun 1990
5.26%
22 out of 418
-4.88%
Mar 1989 - Feb 2009
+3.06% +14.34%
Jul 1970 - Jun 1990
19.14%
80 out of 418
+0.25%
Feb 1989 - Jan 2014
+4.54% +14.80%
Jul 1970 - Jun 1995
0.00%
0 out of 358
-1.94%
Feb 1989 - Jan 2014
+2.59% +11.28%
Jan 1975 - Dec 1999
12.29%
44 out of 358
+1.63%
Jan 1989 - Dec 2018
+6.04% +13.92%
Jul 1970 - Jun 2000
0.00%
0 out of 298
-0.43%
Jan 1989 - Dec 2018
+3.69% +10.17%
Jul 1970 - Jun 2000
4.70%
14 out of 298
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