Vanguard Global ex-US Aggregate Bond Index CAD-hedged (VBG.NE): Rolling Returns

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Period: January 1985 - February 2025 (~40 years)
Currency: CAD
Inflation: Canada
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When holding the Vanguard Global ex-US Aggregate Bond Index CAD-hedged (VBG.NE) ETF, how long should you stay invested to have high probability to achieve a positive return?

Over the selected period (~40 years), the longest duration with a negative return was 106 months (from January 2015 to October 2023).

This indicates that, within the same timeframe, any rolling period of 107 months or more has consistently resulted in a positive return.

Understanding this metric is crucial as it highlights the importance of a safe investment horizon. Knowing the minimum duration required to likely see positive returns helps investors set realistic expectations and reinforces the strategy of staying invested through market cycles. This approach can mitigate the emotional reactions to short-term market fluctuations and enhance the likelihood of achieving financial goals.

Previous vs subsequent Returns

Is there a correlation between past and future returns over all 10-year rolling periods?

The following chart illustrates the relationship between past returns (x-axis) and subsequent returns (y-axis).

Data points are aggregated to show occurrences, and you can zoom in by clicking or drawing over the desired area.

VANGUARD GLOBAL EX-US AGGREGATE BOND INDEX CAD-HEDGED (VBG.NE) ETF
Previous vs Next Returns - 10 Years annualized
Time Period: 1 March 1995 - 28 February 2025 (30 Years)
Time Period: 1 January 1985 - 28 February 2025 (~40 years)

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As of Feb 28, 2025, the annualized return of the previous 10 years has been 0.51%.

Rolling Returns

A rolling return is a measure of investment performance that calculates the return of an investment over a set period of time, with the starting date rolling forward. This approach can provide a more accurate representation of the investment's historical performance and helps investors to evaluate the investment's consistency over time.

VANGUARD GLOBAL EX-US AGGREGATE BOND INDEX CAD-HEDGED (VBG.NE) ETF
Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Returns - Inflation Adjusted
Time Period: 1 March 1995 - 28 February 2025 (30 Years)
Time Period: 1 January 1985 - 28 February 2025 (~40 years)
Canada Inflation Adjusted:

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Rolling Period Analysis

By selecting the 'Rolling Period', the chart and data will update. To study a different date range, change the simulation settings.

VANGUARD GLOBAL EX-US AGGREGATE BOND INDEX CAD-HEDGED (VBG.NE) ETF
Rolling Returns Chart
Rolling Returns Chart - Inflation Adjusted
Time Period: 1 January 1985 - 28 February 2025 (~40 years)
Canada Inflation Adjusted:

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Swipe left to see all data
Worst Median Best Negative Periods
-13.97%
Oct 2021 - Sep 2022
+5.91% +31.39%
Mar 1985 - Feb 1986
13.59%
64 out of 471
-19.49%
Oct 2021 - Sep 2022
+3.42% +26.11%
Mar 1985 - Feb 1986
26.11%
123 out of 471
-8.35%
Jan 2021 - Dec 2022
+6.00% +22.35%
Mar 1985 - Feb 1987
8.28%
38 out of 459
-13.18%
Jan 2021 - Dec 2022
+3.79% +17.53%
Mar 1985 - Feb 1987
13.94%
64 out of 459
-5.73%
Oct 2019 - Sep 2022
+6.60% +17.51%
Oct 1990 - Sep 1993
8.05%
36 out of 447
-9.58%
Oct 2020 - Sep 2023
+4.36% +14.50%
Nov 1990 - Oct 1993
10.96%
49 out of 447
-4.07%
Oct 2019 - Sep 2023
+6.54% +14.82%
Feb 1990 - Jan 1994
8.05%
35 out of 435
-7.64%
Oct 2019 - Sep 2023
+4.21% +11.54%
Feb 1990 - Jan 1994
11.26%
49 out of 435
-2.00%
Sep 2019 - Aug 2024
+6.84% +13.59%
Jan 1989 - Dec 1993
8.27%
35 out of 423
-5.24%
Sep 2019 - Aug 2024
+4.70% +10.25%
Jan 1991 - Dec 1995
11.35%
48 out of 423
-1.56%
Oct 2016 - Sep 2022
+6.98% +12.87%
Oct 1987 - Sep 1993
7.79%
32 out of 411
-4.32%
Nov 2017 - Oct 2023
+4.94% +9.92%
Nov 1990 - Oct 1996
9.98%
41 out of 411
-1.19%
Oct 2016 - Sep 2023
+6.80% +12.93%
Jan 1985 - Dec 1991
5.76%
23 out of 399
-4.07%
Oct 2016 - Sep 2023
+4.88% +8.36%
Jan 1989 - Dec 1995
9.77%
39 out of 399
-0.43%
Mar 2015 - Feb 2023
+6.73% +13.31%
Mar 1985 - Feb 1993
3.88%
15 out of 387
-3.12%
Jul 2016 - Jun 2024
+4.80% +8.91%
Mar 1985 - Feb 1993
9.56%
37 out of 387
+0.12%
Nov 2014 - Oct 2023
+6.66% +13.23%
Jan 1985 - Dec 1993
0.00%
0 out of 375
-2.45%
May 2015 - Apr 2024
+4.67% +9.06%
Mar 1985 - Feb 1994
9.87%
37 out of 375
+0.45%
Feb 2015 - Jan 2025
+6.74% +11.18%
Mar 1985 - Feb 1995
0.00%
0 out of 363
-2.13%
Feb 2015 - Jan 2025
+4.62% +7.49%
Mar 1985 - Feb 1995
9.64%
35 out of 363
+0.70%
Nov 2012 - Oct 2023
+6.78% +11.90%
Jan 1985 - Dec 1995
0.00%
0 out of 351
-1.66%
Nov 2012 - Oct 2023
+4.63% +8.32%
Jan 1985 - Dec 1995
8.83%
31 out of 351
+1.17%
Jan 2013 - Dec 2024
+6.82% +11.46%
Jan 1985 - Dec 1996
0.00%
0 out of 339
-1.20%
Jan 2013 - Dec 2024
+4.70% +8.00%
Jan 1985 - Dec 1996
9.14%
31 out of 339
+1.72%
Nov 2010 - Oct 2023
+6.79% +10.51%
Mar 1985 - Feb 1998
0.00%
0 out of 327
-0.62%
Oct 2010 - Sep 2023
+4.69% +7.44%
May 1990 - Apr 2003
6.42%
21 out of 327
+2.12%
Nov 2010 - Oct 2024
+6.80% +10.70%
Mar 1985 - Feb 1999
0.00%
0 out of 315
-0.22%
Sep 2010 - Aug 2024
+4.75% +7.67%
Mar 1985 - Feb 1999
2.22%
7 out of 315
+2.59%
Feb 2010 - Jan 2025
+6.78% +10.13%
Mar 1985 - Feb 2000
0.00%
0 out of 303
+0.31%
Feb 2010 - Jan 2025
+4.66% +7.12%
Mar 1985 - Feb 2000
0.00%
0 out of 303
+2.89%
Mar 2008 - Feb 2024
+6.80% +10.24%
Mar 1985 - Feb 2001
0.00%
0 out of 291
+0.68%
Mar 2008 - Feb 2024
+4.72% +7.22%
Mar 1985 - Feb 2001
0.00%
0 out of 291
+2.94%
Mar 2008 - Feb 2025
+6.88% +10.24%
Mar 1985 - Feb 2002
0.00%
0 out of 279
+0.73%
Nov 2006 - Oct 2023
+4.86% +7.30%
Mar 1985 - Feb 2002
0.00%
0 out of 279
+3.04%
Oct 2005 - Sep 2023
+6.81% +10.29%
Mar 1985 - Feb 2003
0.00%
0 out of 267
+0.89%
Oct 2005 - Sep 2023
+4.81% +7.24%
Mar 1985 - Feb 2003
0.00%
0 out of 267
+3.16%
Jul 2005 - Jun 2024
+6.85% +9.97%
Mar 1985 - Feb 2004
0.00%
0 out of 255
+0.95%
Jul 2005 - Jun 2024
+4.88% +7.05%
Mar 1985 - Feb 2004
0.00%
0 out of 255
+3.31%
Feb 2005 - Jan 2025
+6.67% +9.74%
Mar 1985 - Feb 2005
0.00%
0 out of 243
+1.13%
Oct 2003 - Sep 2023
+4.70% +6.86%
Mar 1985 - Feb 2005
0.00%
0 out of 243
+4.20%
May 1999 - Apr 2024
+6.62% +8.91%
Mar 1985 - Feb 2010
0.00%
0 out of 183
+1.93%
May 1999 - Apr 2024
+4.76% +6.24%
Mar 1985 - Feb 2010
0.00%
0 out of 183
+4.57%
Nov 1993 - Oct 2023
+6.91% +8.58%
Mar 1985 - Feb 2015
0.00%
0 out of 123
+2.46%
Nov 1993 - Oct 2023
+4.85% +6.06%
Mar 1985 - Feb 2015
0.00%
0 out of 123
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