Vanguard Real Estate (VNQ) to EUR: Rolling Returns

Simulation Settings
Category:
Period: August 1953 - March 2025 (~72 years)
Currency: EUR
VNQ is not denominated in EUR. Returns are simulated using exchange rates or interest rate differentials in case of currency hedging.
Inflation: Eurozone
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The minimum date range must be at least 24 months. 'Date To' cannot be beyond March 2025.
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This asset allocation includes ETFs not denominated in EUR. Returns are calculated using exchange rates or, if applicable, interest rate differentials for currency hedging.

When holding the Vanguard Real Estate (VNQ) to EUR ETF, how long should you stay invested to have high probability to achieve a positive return?

Over the selected period (~72 years), the longest duration with a negative return was 257 months (from August 1953 to December 1974).

This indicates that, within the same timeframe, any rolling period of 258 months or more has consistently resulted in a positive return.

Understanding this metric is crucial as it highlights the importance of a safe investment horizon. Knowing the minimum duration required to likely see positive returns helps investors set realistic expectations and reinforces the strategy of staying invested through market cycles. This approach can mitigate the emotional reactions to short-term market fluctuations and enhance the likelihood of achieving financial goals.

Previous vs subsequent Returns

Is there a correlation between past and future returns over all 10-year rolling periods?

The following chart illustrates the relationship between past returns (x-axis) and subsequent returns (y-axis).

Data points are aggregated to show occurrences, and you can zoom in by clicking or drawing over the desired area.

VANGUARD REAL ESTATE (VNQ) TO EUR ETF
Previous vs Next Returns - 10 Years annualized
Time Period: 1 April 1995 - 31 March 2025 (30 Years)
Time Period: 1 August 1953 - 31 March 2025 (~72 years)

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As of Mar 31, 2025, the annualized return of the previous 10 years has been 4.79%.

Rolling Returns

A rolling return is a measure of investment performance that calculates the return of an investment over a set period of time, with the starting date rolling forward. This approach can provide a more accurate representation of the investment's historical performance and helps investors to evaluate the investment's consistency over time.

VANGUARD REAL ESTATE (VNQ) TO EUR ETF
Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Returns - Inflation Adjusted
Time Period: 1 April 1995 - 31 March 2025 (30 Years)
Time Period: 1 August 1953 - 31 March 2025 (~72 years)
Eurozone Inflation Adjusted:

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Rolling Period Analysis

By selecting the 'Rolling Period', the chart and data will update. To study a different date range, change the simulation settings.

VANGUARD REAL ESTATE (VNQ) TO EUR ETF
Rolling Returns Chart
Rolling Returns Chart - Inflation Adjusted
Time Period: 1 August 1953 - 31 March 2025 (~72 years)
Eurozone Inflation Adjusted:

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Swipe left to see all data
Worst Median Best Negative Periods
-50.21%
Apr 2008 - Mar 2009
+7.36% +106.47%
Apr 2009 - Mar 2010
31.68%
269 out of 849
-50.49%
Apr 2008 - Mar 2009
+4.97% +103.25%
Apr 2009 - Mar 2010
38.04%
323 out of 849
-41.66%
Mar 2007 - Feb 2009
+6.30% +59.00%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2011
24.25%
203 out of 837
-42.93%
Mar 2007 - Feb 2009
+3.65% +56.44%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2011
35.01%
293 out of 837
-27.23%
Apr 2006 - Mar 2009
+6.16% +48.39%
Mar 1982 - Feb 1985
16.36%
135 out of 825
-28.68%
Apr 2006 - Mar 2009
+3.65% +43.97%
Mar 1982 - Feb 1985
29.70%
245 out of 825
-13.11%
Jul 2005 - Jun 2009
+8.11% +40.98%
Oct 1980 - Sep 1984
13.65%
111 out of 813
-17.57%
Jan 1971 - Dec 1974
+5.01% +35.34%
Oct 1980 - Sep 1984
26.57%
216 out of 813
-10.06%
Apr 2004 - Mar 2009
+6.98% +40.89%
Jun 1980 - May 1985
10.36%
83 out of 801
-13.76%
Jan 1970 - Dec 1974
+4.42% +35.61%
Jun 1980 - May 1985
25.72%
206 out of 801
-6.22%
Dec 1968 - Nov 1974
+6.56% +38.47%
Mar 1979 - Feb 1985
6.59%
52 out of 789
-10.90%
Dec 1968 - Nov 1974
+4.01% +32.63%
Mar 1979 - Feb 1985
25.22%
199 out of 789
-6.90%
Apr 2002 - Mar 2009
+7.06% +33.74%
Mar 1978 - Feb 1985
5.66%
44 out of 777
-8.94%
Jan 1968 - Dec 1974
+4.28% +28.38%
Mar 1978 - Feb 1985
22.91%
178 out of 777
-3.64%
Jan 1967 - Dec 1974
+7.66% +29.37%
Jan 1976 - Dec 1983
3.66%
28 out of 765
-7.59%
Jan 1967 - Dec 1974
+5.04% +24.55%
Nov 1978 - Oct 1986
21.18%
162 out of 765
-3.09%
Jan 1966 - Dec 1974
+8.53% +30.50%
Jan 1976 - Dec 1984
2.39%
18 out of 753
-6.92%
Jan 1966 - Dec 1974
+6.02% +25.43%
Jan 1976 - Dec 1984
19.26%
145 out of 753
-2.61%
Jan 1965 - Dec 1974
+8.58% +30.47%
Mar 1975 - Feb 1985
2.29%
17 out of 741
-6.43%
Jan 1965 - Dec 1974
+6.11% +25.30%
Mar 1975 - Feb 1985
18.35%
136 out of 741
-2.26%
Jan 1964 - Dec 1974
+9.06% +26.42%
Jan 1975 - Dec 1985
2.74%
20 out of 729
-5.95%
Jan 1964 - Dec 1974
+6.43% +21.63%
Jan 1975 - Dec 1985
18.38%
134 out of 729
-1.90%
Jan 1963 - Dec 1974
+9.13% +23.85%
Jan 1975 - Dec 1986
2.09%
15 out of 717
-5.57%
Jan 1963 - Dec 1974
+6.63% +19.64%
Jan 1975 - Dec 1986
15.62%
112 out of 717
-1.73%
Jan 1962 - Dec 1974
+9.37% +21.15%
Oct 1974 - Sep 1987
1.70%
12 out of 705
-5.32%
Jan 1962 - Dec 1974
+6.86% +17.14%
Oct 1974 - Sep 1987
15.46%
109 out of 705
-1.64%
Jan 1961 - Dec 1974
+9.54% +20.38%
Jun 1975 - May 1989
1.88%
13 out of 693
-5.17%
Jan 1961 - Dec 1974
+7.23% +16.73%
Jun 1975 - May 1989
14.72%
102 out of 693
-1.49%
Jan 1960 - Dec 1974
+9.46% +19.68%
Sep 1974 - Aug 1989
1.62%
11 out of 681
-4.83%
Jan 1960 - Dec 1974
+7.26% +15.90%
Sep 1974 - Aug 1989
12.78%
87 out of 681
-1.39%
Jan 1959 - Dec 1974
+9.63% +17.46%
Jun 1975 - May 1991
1.79%
12 out of 669
-4.62%
Jan 1959 - Dec 1974
+7.23% +13.85%
Jun 1975 - May 1991
11.66%
78 out of 669
-1.03%
Jan 1958 - Dec 1974
+9.70% +17.00%
Feb 1975 - Jan 1992
1.22%
8 out of 657
-4.13%
Jan 1958 - Dec 1974
+7.42% +13.36%
Jan 1976 - Dec 1992
12.18%
80 out of 657
-0.53%
Jan 1957 - Dec 1974
+10.01% +18.32%
Nov 1975 - Oct 1993
0.93%
6 out of 645
-3.59%
Jan 1957 - Dec 1974
+7.57% +14.63%
Nov 1975 - Oct 1993
12.87%
83 out of 645
-0.47%
Jan 1956 - Dec 1974
+9.96% +18.09%
Jan 1975 - Dec 1993
0.79%
5 out of 633
-3.47%
Jan 1956 - Dec 1974
+7.50% +14.30%
Jan 1975 - Dec 1993
11.85%
75 out of 633
-0.41%
Jan 1955 - Dec 1974
+10.06% +16.03%
Jan 1975 - Dec 1994
0.32%
2 out of 621
-3.40%
Jan 1955 - Dec 1974
+7.33% +12.51%
Feb 1978 - Jan 1998
11.11%
69 out of 621
+2.38%
Nov 1953 - Oct 1978
+10.09% +15.86%
Nov 1975 - Oct 2000
0.00%
0 out of 561
-0.71%
Nov 1953 - Oct 1978
+6.93% +12.65%
Nov 1975 - Oct 2000
0.89%
5 out of 561
+7.26%
Jan 1961 - Dec 1990
+9.92% +15.19%
Dec 1975 - Nov 2005
0.00%
0 out of 501
+3.65%
Jan 1961 - Dec 1990
+7.26% +12.12%
Dec 1975 - Nov 2005
0.00%
0 out of 501
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