When holding the Vanguard Total International Bond (BNDX) to EUR Hedged ETF, how long should you stay invested to have high probability to achieve a positive return?
Over the selected period (~40 years), the longest duration with a negative return was 110 months (from September 2014 to October 2023).
This indicates that, within the same timeframe, any rolling period of 111 months or more has consistently resulted in a positive return.
Understanding this metric is crucial as it highlights the importance of a safe investment horizon. Knowing the minimum duration required to likely see positive returns helps investors set realistic expectations and reinforces the strategy of staying invested through market cycles. This approach can mitigate the emotional reactions to short-term market fluctuations and enhance the likelihood of achieving financial goals.
Vanguard Total International Bond (BNDX) to EUR Hedged ETF: Historical Returns
Previous vs subsequent Returns
Is there a correlation between past and future returns over all 10-year rolling periods?
The following chart illustrates the relationship between past returns (x-axis) and subsequent returns (y-axis).
Data points are aggregated to show occurrences, and you can zoom in by clicking or drawing over the desired area.
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As of Sep 30, 2024, the annualized return of the previous 10 years has been 0.86%.
Rolling Returns
A rolling return is a measure of investment performance that calculates the return of an investment over a set period of time, with the starting date rolling forward. This approach can provide a more accurate representation of the investment's historical performance and helps investors to evaluate the investment's consistency over time.
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Rolling Period Analysis
By selecting the 'Rolling Period', the chart and data will update. To study a different date range, change the simulation settings.
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Worst | Median | Best | Negative Periods |
---|---|---|---|
-14.08%
Jan 2022 - Dec 2022 |
+5.44% |
+28.70%
Mar 1985 - Feb 1986 |
16.52%
77 out of 466 |
-21.78%
Oct 2021 - Sep 2022 |
+3.37% |
+28.39%
May 1985 - Apr 1986 |
28.76%
134 out of 466 |
-8.60%
Jan 2021 - Dec 2022 |
+5.37% |
+23.14%
Aug 1991 - Jul 1993 |
9.69%
44 out of 454 |
-14.63%
Jan 2021 - Dec 2022 |
+3.91% |
+20.42%
Mar 1985 - Feb 1987 |
17.84%
81 out of 454 |
-5.44%
Nov 2020 - Oct 2023 |
+5.73% |
+22.33%
Nov 1990 - Oct 1993 |
7.24%
32 out of 442 |
-10.63%
Nov 2020 - Oct 2023 |
+3.87% |
+18.17%
Nov 1990 - Oct 1993 |
11.09%
49 out of 442 |
-3.72%
Oct 2019 - Sep 2023 |
+5.94% |
+18.51%
Feb 1990 - Jan 1994 |
6.98%
30 out of 430 |
-7.66%
Oct 2019 - Sep 2023 |
+4.07% |
+14.29%
Feb 1990 - Jan 1994 |
10.00%
43 out of 430 |
-1.69%
Jan 2018 - Dec 2022 |
+5.99% |
+15.86%
Jan 1989 - Dec 1993 |
7.18%
30 out of 418 |
-5.29%
Sep 2019 - Aug 2024 |
+4.18% |
+11.97%
Dec 1990 - Nov 1995 |
9.81%
41 out of 418 |
-1.57%
Oct 2016 - Sep 2022 |
+6.02% |
+14.30%
May 1990 - Apr 1996 |
6.90%
28 out of 406 |
-4.48%
Nov 2017 - Oct 2023 |
+4.06% |
+10.93%
Nov 1990 - Oct 1996 |
8.13%
33 out of 406 |
-1.28%
Oct 2016 - Sep 2023 |
+6.00% |
+13.16%
Jan 1989 - Dec 1995 |
5.84%
23 out of 394 |
-4.24%
Oct 2016 - Sep 2023 |
+3.99% |
+9.62%
Mar 1985 - Feb 1992 |
8.38%
33 out of 394 |
-0.51%
Mar 2015 - Feb 2023 |
+6.13% |
+13.30%
Mar 1985 - Feb 1993 |
5.24%
20 out of 382 |
-3.23%
Jul 2016 - Jun 2024 |
+4.05% |
+10.80%
Mar 1985 - Feb 1993 |
8.12%
31 out of 382 |
-0.08%
Nov 2014 - Oct 2023 |
+6.04% |
+13.56%
Jan 1985 - Dec 1993 |
0.27%
1 out of 370 |
-2.46%
Nov 2014 - Oct 2023 |
+4.10% |
+10.94%
Jan 1985 - Dec 1993 |
8.38%
31 out of 370 |
+0.41%
Mar 2013 - Feb 2023 |
+5.99% |
+11.73%
Mar 1985 - Feb 1995 |
0.00%
0 out of 358 |
-1.65%
Sep 2014 - Aug 2024 |
+4.11% |
+9.15%
Mar 1985 - Feb 1995 |
8.10%
29 out of 358 |
+0.53%
Nov 2012 - Oct 2023 |
+5.81% |
+12.27%
Jan 1985 - Dec 1995 |
0.00%
0 out of 346 |
-1.53%
Nov 2012 - Oct 2023 |
+4.00% |
+9.64%
Jan 1985 - Dec 1995 |
7.51%
26 out of 346 |
+1.23%
Oct 2012 - Sep 2024 |
+5.93% |
+11.54%
Jan 1985 - Dec 1996 |
0.00%
0 out of 334 |
-0.87%
Sep 2012 - Aug 2024 |
+3.99% |
+8.96%
Jan 1985 - Dec 1996 |
7.49%
25 out of 334 |
+1.65%
Nov 2010 - Oct 2023 |
+5.99% |
+10.37%
Mar 1985 - Feb 1998 |
0.00%
0 out of 322 |
-0.54%
Nov 2010 - Oct 2023 |
+3.95% |
+7.95%
Mar 1985 - Feb 1998 |
4.04%
13 out of 322 |
+2.10%
Sep 2010 - Aug 2024 |
+5.87% |
+10.62%
Mar 1985 - Feb 1999 |
0.00%
0 out of 310 |
-0.11%
Sep 2010 - Aug 2024 |
+4.00% |
+8.31%
Mar 1985 - Feb 1999 |
0.97%
3 out of 310 |
+2.83%
Mar 2008 - Feb 2023 |
+6.04% |
+9.71%
Mar 1985 - Feb 2000 |
0.00%
0 out of 298 |
+0.66%
Oct 2009 - Sep 2024 |
+4.07% |
+7.43%
Mar 1985 - Feb 2000 |
0.00%
0 out of 298 |
+2.98%
Mar 2008 - Feb 2024 |
+6.03% |
+9.69%
Mar 1985 - Feb 2001 |
0.00%
0 out of 286 |
+0.92%
Nov 2007 - Oct 2023 |
+4.02% |
+7.42%
Mar 1985 - Feb 2001 |
0.00%
0 out of 286 |
+2.94%
Nov 2006 - Oct 2023 |
+6.11% |
+9.66%
Mar 1985 - Feb 2002 |
0.00%
0 out of 274 |
+0.80%
Nov 2006 - Oct 2023 |
+4.09% |
+7.38%
Mar 1985 - Feb 2002 |
0.00%
0 out of 274 |
+2.85%
Oct 2005 - Sep 2023 |
+6.11% |
+9.81%
Mar 1985 - Feb 2003 |
0.00%
0 out of 262 |
+0.73%
Oct 2005 - Sep 2023 |
+4.09% |
+7.51%
Mar 1985 - Feb 2003 |
0.00%
0 out of 262 |
+2.94%
Nov 2004 - Oct 2023 |
+6.08% |
+9.48%
Mar 1985 - Feb 2004 |
0.00%
0 out of 250 |
+0.81%
Nov 2004 - Oct 2023 |
+4.18% |
+7.22%
Mar 1985 - Feb 2004 |
0.00%
0 out of 250 |
+3.07%
Oct 2003 - Sep 2023 |
+5.91% |
+9.25%
Mar 1985 - Feb 2005 |
0.00%
0 out of 238 |
+0.93%
Oct 2003 - Sep 2023 |
+4.03% |
+6.99%
Mar 1985 - Feb 2005 |
0.00%
0 out of 238 |
+3.65%
Nov 1998 - Oct 2023 |
+6.42% |
+8.37%
Mar 1985 - Feb 2010 |
0.00%
0 out of 178 |
+1.51%
Nov 1998 - Oct 2023 |
+4.48% |
+6.17%
Mar 1985 - Feb 2010 |
0.00%
0 out of 178 |
+4.01%
Nov 1993 - Oct 2023 |
+6.74% |
+8.12%
Mar 1985 - Feb 2015 |
0.00%
0 out of 118 |
+1.89%
Nov 1993 - Oct 2023 |
+4.65% |
+6.03%
Mar 1985 - Feb 2015 |
0.00%
0 out of 118 |
Vanguard Total International Bond (BNDX) to EUR Hedged ETF: Historical Returns