When holding the Vanguard Total International Bond (BNDX) to EUR ETF, how long should you stay invested to have high probability to achieve a positive return?
Over the selected period (~40 years), the longest duration with a negative return was 111 months (from February 2002 to April 2011).
This indicates that, within the same timeframe, any rolling period of 112 months or more has consistently resulted in a positive return.
Understanding this metric is crucial as it highlights the importance of a safe investment horizon. Knowing the minimum duration required to likely see positive returns helps investors set realistic expectations and reinforces the strategy of staying invested through market cycles. This approach can mitigate the emotional reactions to short-term market fluctuations and enhance the likelihood of achieving financial goals.
Vanguard Total International Bond (BNDX) to EUR ETF: Historical Returns
Previous vs subsequent Returns
Is there a correlation between past and future returns over all 10-year rolling periods?
The following chart illustrates the relationship between past returns (x-axis) and subsequent returns (y-axis).
Data points are aggregated to show occurrences, and you can zoom in by clicking or drawing over the desired area.
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As of Sep 30, 2024, the annualized return of the previous 10 years has been 3.48%.
Rolling Returns
A rolling return is a measure of investment performance that calculates the return of an investment over a set period of time, with the starting date rolling forward. This approach can provide a more accurate representation of the investment's historical performance and helps investors to evaluate the investment's consistency over time.
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Rolling Period Analysis
By selecting the 'Rolling Period', the chart and data will update. To study a different date range, change the simulation settings.
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Worst | Median | Best | Negative Periods |
---|---|---|---|
-17.08%
Sep 1989 - Aug 1990 |
+5.78% |
+48.45%
Sep 1992 - Aug 1993 |
36.70%
171 out of 466 |
-19.97%
Sep 1989 - Aug 1990 |
+3.81% |
+43.51%
Sep 1992 - Aug 1993 |
42.92%
200 out of 466 |
-11.58%
Feb 2002 - Jan 2004 |
+5.19% |
+25.09%
Jan 1992 - Dec 1993 |
27.09%
123 out of 454 |
-13.33%
Feb 2002 - Jan 2004 |
+3.18% |
+23.64%
Jul 2008 - Jun 2010 |
37.22%
169 out of 454 |
-7.73%
Mar 2002 - Feb 2005 |
+5.57% |
+24.98%
Nov 1990 - Oct 1993 |
16.74%
74 out of 442 |
-9.55%
Mar 2002 - Feb 2005 |
+3.60% |
+20.74%
Nov 1990 - Oct 1993 |
30.32%
134 out of 442 |
-3.34%
Apr 2001 - Mar 2005 |
+6.07% |
+16.91%
Feb 1990 - Jan 1994 |
16.28%
70 out of 430 |
-5.96%
Sep 2019 - Aug 2023 |
+4.06% |
+14.12%
Apr 1997 - Mar 2001 |
25.35%
109 out of 430 |
-3.16%
Feb 2002 - Jan 2007 |
+6.68% |
+15.21%
May 1995 - Apr 2000 |
9.09%
38 out of 418 |
-5.15%
Dec 2002 - Nov 2007 |
+4.37% |
+13.41%
May 1995 - Apr 2000 |
23.92%
100 out of 418 |
-4.10%
Apr 2002 - Mar 2008 |
+6.64% |
+15.91%
Apr 1995 - Mar 2001 |
6.90%
28 out of 406 |
-6.27%
Apr 2002 - Mar 2008 |
+4.65% |
+13.97%
Apr 1995 - Mar 2001 |
18.47%
75 out of 406 |
-3.37%
Jul 2001 - Jun 2008 |
+6.46% |
+14.53%
Apr 1995 - Mar 2002 |
7.11%
28 out of 394 |
-5.60%
Jul 2001 - Jun 2008 |
+4.80% |
+12.49%
Apr 1995 - Mar 2002 |
15.99%
63 out of 394 |
-1.57%
Jun 2001 - May 2009 |
+6.60% |
+13.48%
Sep 1992 - Aug 2000 |
5.50%
21 out of 382 |
-3.53%
Jun 2001 - May 2009 |
+4.54% |
+11.15%
Sep 1992 - Aug 2000 |
14.66%
56 out of 382 |
+0.05%
Nov 2000 - Oct 2009 |
+6.69% |
+13.04%
Sep 1992 - Aug 2001 |
0.00%
0 out of 370 |
-1.97%
Nov 2000 - Oct 2009 |
+4.66% |
+10.70%
Sep 1992 - Aug 2001 |
12.43%
46 out of 370 |
+0.65%
Jul 2001 - Jun 2011 |
+6.49% |
+14.13%
Nov 1990 - Oct 2000 |
0.00%
0 out of 358 |
-1.38%
Jul 2001 - Jun 2011 |
+4.61% |
+11.47%
Nov 1990 - Oct 2000 |
4.19%
15 out of 358 |
+1.95%
Nov 2000 - Oct 2011 |
+6.40% |
+13.60%
Nov 1990 - Oct 2001 |
0.00%
0 out of 346 |
-0.19%
May 2000 - Apr 2011 |
+4.54% |
+10.96%
Nov 1990 - Oct 2001 |
1.16%
4 out of 346 |
+1.89%
Mar 2002 - Feb 2014 |
+6.11% |
+12.00%
Feb 1990 - Jan 2002 |
0.00%
0 out of 334 |
-0.05%
Mar 2002 - Feb 2014 |
+4.14% |
+9.38%
Nov 1990 - Oct 2002 |
0.30%
1 out of 334 |
+2.31%
Jun 2001 - May 2014 |
+5.91% |
+11.76%
Dec 1987 - Nov 2000 |
0.00%
0 out of 322 |
+0.37%
Jun 2001 - May 2014 |
+3.98% |
+8.98%
Dec 1987 - Nov 2000 |
0.00%
0 out of 322 |
+3.31%
May 2000 - Apr 2014 |
+5.85% |
+11.85%
Jan 1988 - Dec 2001 |
0.00%
0 out of 310 |
+1.26%
May 2000 - Apr 2014 |
+3.93% |
+9.09%
Jan 1988 - Dec 2001 |
0.00%
0 out of 310 |
+3.41%
Aug 1993 - Jul 2008 |
+5.81% |
+10.49%
Dec 1987 - Nov 2002 |
0.00%
0 out of 298 |
+1.22%
Aug 1993 - Jul 2008 |
+3.93% |
+7.81%
Dec 1987 - Nov 2002 |
0.00%
0 out of 298 |
+2.94%
Feb 2002 - Jan 2018 |
+5.84% |
+9.46%
Mar 1986 - Feb 2002 |
0.00%
0 out of 286 |
+1.29%
Feb 2002 - Jan 2018 |
+3.85% |
+7.09%
Mar 1986 - Feb 2002 |
0.00%
0 out of 286 |
+3.41%
Apr 2001 - Mar 2018 |
+5.80% |
+8.40%
Feb 1985 - Jan 2002 |
0.00%
0 out of 274 |
+1.68%
Apr 2001 - Mar 2018 |
+3.80% |
+6.13%
Feb 1985 - Jan 2002 |
0.00%
0 out of 274 |
+3.93%
Nov 2000 - Oct 2018 |
+5.98% |
+8.81%
Jan 1988 - Dec 2005 |
0.00%
0 out of 262 |
+2.08%
Dec 2005 - Nov 2023 |
+3.71% |
+6.19%
Jan 1988 - Dec 2005 |
0.00%
0 out of 262 |
+3.37%
Mar 2002 - Feb 2021 |
+6.17% |
+7.87%
Jan 1988 - Dec 2006 |
0.00%
0 out of 250 |
+1.80%
Mar 2002 - Feb 2021 |
+3.97% |
+5.31%
Jan 1988 - Dec 2006 |
0.00%
0 out of 250 |
+3.34%
Jun 2001 - May 2021 |
+6.05% |
+8.10%
Sep 1990 - Aug 2010 |
0.00%
0 out of 238 |
+1.59%
Apr 2002 - Mar 2022 |
+3.94% |
+6.01%
Apr 1995 - Mar 2015 |
0.00%
0 out of 238 |
+4.31%
Jun 1999 - May 2024 |
+6.19% |
+8.23%
Dec 1990 - Nov 2015 |
0.00%
0 out of 178 |
+2.14%
Jun 1999 - May 2024 |
+4.12% |
+6.07%
Dec 1990 - Nov 2015 |
0.00%
0 out of 178 |
+4.76%
Jan 1994 - Dec 2023 |
+6.66% |
+7.31%
Nov 1990 - Oct 2020 |
0.00%
0 out of 118 |
+2.65%
Jan 1994 - Dec 2023 |
+4.58% |
+5.36%
Nov 1990 - Oct 2020 |
0.00%
0 out of 118 |
Vanguard Total International Bond (BNDX) to EUR ETF: Historical Returns