Vanguard Total Stock Market (VTI): Rolling Returns

Time Period: from January 1871 to October 2024 (~154 years)
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When holding the Vanguard Total Stock Market (VTI) ETF, how long should you stay invested to have high probability to achieve a positive return?

Over the selected period (~154 years), the longest duration with a negative return was 188 months (from November 1916 to June 1932).

This indicates that, within the same timeframe, any rolling period of 189 months or more has consistently resulted in a positive return.

Understanding this metric is crucial as it highlights the importance of a safe investment horizon. Knowing the minimum duration required to likely see positive returns helps investors set realistic expectations and reinforces the strategy of staying invested through market cycles. This approach can mitigate the emotional reactions to short-term market fluctuations and enhance the likelihood of achieving financial goals.

Previous vs subsequent Returns

Is there a correlation between past and future returns over all 10-year rolling periods?

The following chart illustrates the relationship between past returns (x-axis) and subsequent returns (y-axis).

Data points are aggregated to show occurrences, and you can zoom in by clicking or drawing over the desired area.

VANGUARD TOTAL STOCK MARKET (VTI) ETF
Previous vs Next Returns - 10 Years annualized
Time Period: 1 November 1994 - 31 October 2024 (30 Years)
Time Period: 1 January 1871 - 31 October 2024 (~154 years)

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As of Oct 31, 2024, the annualized return of the previous 10 years has been 12.39%.

Rolling Returns

A rolling return is a measure of investment performance that calculates the return of an investment over a set period of time, with the starting date rolling forward. This approach can provide a more accurate representation of the investment's historical performance and helps investors to evaluate the investment's consistency over time.

VANGUARD TOTAL STOCK MARKET (VTI) ETF
Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Returns - Inflation Adjusted
Time Period: 1 November 1994 - 31 October 2024 (30 Years)
Time Period: 1 January 1871 - 31 October 2024 (~154 years)
US Inflation Adjusted:

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Rolling Period Analysis

By selecting the 'Rolling Period', the chart and data will update. To study a different date range, change the simulation settings.

VANGUARD TOTAL STOCK MARKET (VTI) ETF
Rolling Returns Chart
Rolling Returns Chart - Inflation Adjusted
Time Period: 1 January 1871 - 31 October 2024 (~154 years)
US Inflation Adjusted:

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Swipe left to see all data
Worst Median Best Negative Periods
-67.90%
Jul 1931 - Jun 1932
+11.04% +164.11%
Jul 1932 - Jun 1933
26.92%
494 out of 1835
-64.35%
Jul 1931 - Jun 1932
+9.03% +182.83%
Jul 1932 - Jun 1933
30.63%
562 out of 1835
-55.42%
Jun 1930 - May 1932
+10.08% +59.68%
Jul 1932 - Jun 1934
19.53%
356 out of 1823
-50.48%
Jun 1930 - May 1932
+7.47% +60.87%
Jul 1932 - Jun 1934
24.68%
450 out of 1823
-43.81%
Jul 1929 - Jun 1932
+9.99% +45.34%
Mar 1933 - Feb 1936
15.79%
286 out of 1811
-39.36%
Jul 1929 - Jun 1932
+7.52% +41.38%
Mar 1933 - Feb 1936
20.60%
373 out of 1811
-29.44%
Jun 1928 - May 1932
+9.81% +43.64%
Jul 1932 - Jun 1936
12.78%
230 out of 1799
-25.31%
Jun 1928 - May 1932
+7.46% +43.11%
Jul 1932 - Jun 1936
18.57%
334 out of 1799
-19.58%
Jun 1927 - May 1932
+9.99% +37.25%
Jun 1932 - May 1937
10.02%
179 out of 1787
-15.64%
Jun 1927 - May 1932
+7.34% +35.89%
Jun 1932 - May 1937
17.57%
314 out of 1787
-13.44%
Jul 1926 - Jun 1932
+9.66% +29.19%
Sep 1923 - Aug 1929
5.80%
103 out of 1775
-10.90%
Oct 1968 - Sep 1974
+7.39% +28.94%
Sep 1923 - Aug 1929
14.70%
261 out of 1775
-9.49%
Jul 1925 - Jun 1932
+9.45% +24.63%
Feb 1922 - Jan 1929
4.14%
73 out of 1763
-8.51%
Oct 1967 - Sep 1974
+7.16% +24.42%
Feb 1922 - Jan 1929
12.59%
222 out of 1763
-7.94%
Apr 1930 - Mar 1938
+9.02% +27.00%
Sep 1921 - Aug 1929
3.08%
54 out of 1751
-5.88%
Aug 1912 - Jul 1920
+6.79% +27.36%
Sep 1921 - Aug 1929
11.14%
195 out of 1751
-7.16%
Apr 1929 - Mar 1938
+8.85% +21.87%
Sep 1920 - Aug 1929
2.47%
43 out of 1739
-7.20%
Mar 2000 - Feb 2009
+7.09% +24.06%
Sep 1920 - Aug 1929
11.33%
197 out of 1739
-5.29%
Sep 1929 - Aug 1939
+8.87% +20.50%
Jun 1949 - May 1959
2.90%
50 out of 1727
-4.93%
Mar 1999 - Feb 2009
+7.09% +19.53%
Sep 1919 - Aug 1929
10.02%
173 out of 1727
-4.59%
Sep 1929 - Aug 1940
+8.97% +19.24%
Sep 1918 - Aug 1929
2.04%
35 out of 1715
-3.49%
Mar 1998 - Feb 2009
+7.19% +17.98%
Sep 1918 - Aug 1929
10.15%
174 out of 1715
-3.80%
May 1930 - Apr 1942
+8.78% +18.79%
Jun 1949 - May 1961
1.82%
31 out of 1703
-3.36%
May 1930 - Apr 1942
+7.16% +16.61%
Jun 1949 - May 1961
8.34%
142 out of 1703
-4.31%
Sep 1929 - Aug 1942
+8.78% +19.10%
Aug 1942 - Jul 1955
1.48%
25 out of 1691
-3.97%
Sep 1929 - Aug 1942
+7.04% +16.06%
Dec 1948 - Nov 1961
6.45%
109 out of 1691
-1.53%
May 1928 - Apr 1942
+8.74% +19.69%
May 1942 - Apr 1956
1.07%
18 out of 1679
-1.99%
Mar 1906 - Feb 1920
+6.98% +15.52%
Jun 1932 - May 1946
4.53%
76 out of 1679
-0.35%
Sep 1929 - Aug 1944
+8.66% +18.24%
May 1942 - Apr 1957
0.12%
2 out of 1667
-2.10%
Jan 1906 - Dec 1920
+6.96% +14.89%
Jul 1949 - Jun 1964
2.46%
41 out of 1667
+0.35%
Jul 1916 - Jun 1932
+8.51% +18.13%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1998
0.00%
0 out of 1655
-1.43%
Sep 1905 - Aug 1921
+6.81% +14.63%
Jun 1949 - May 1965
1.75%
29 out of 1655
+1.41%
Jul 1915 - Jun 1932
+8.35% +18.21%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1999
0.00%
0 out of 1643
-0.42%
Aug 1965 - Jul 1982
+6.67% +14.54%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1999
0.61%
10 out of 1643
+1.39%
Jun 1914 - May 1932
+8.42% +17.96%
Apr 1982 - Mar 2000
0.00%
0 out of 1631
-0.64%
Aug 1902 - Jul 1920
+6.59% +14.15%
Apr 1982 - Mar 2000
0.80%
13 out of 1631
+1.48%
Jun 1913 - May 1932
+8.34% +17.35%
May 1942 - Apr 1961
0.00%
0 out of 1619
-0.83%
Jul 1901 - Jun 1920
+6.59% +13.61%
May 1942 - Apr 1961
0.86%
14 out of 1619
+1.15%
Jul 1912 - Jun 1932
+8.27% +17.30%
Apr 1980 - Mar 2000
0.00%
0 out of 1607
-0.59%
Jul 1912 - Jun 1932
+6.67% +13.11%
Dec 1948 - Nov 1968
0.37%
6 out of 1607
+2.64%
Jun 1907 - May 1932
+9.15% +16.93%
Jan 1975 - Dec 1999
0.00%
0 out of 1547
+0.99%
Jun 1907 - May 1932
+6.42% +12.77%
Jun 1932 - May 1957
0.00%
0 out of 1547
+2.64%
Jun 1902 - May 1932
+9.82% +14.81%
Jun 1932 - May 1962
0.00%
0 out of 1487
+0.85%
Jun 1902 - May 1932
+6.56% +11.82%
Jun 1932 - May 1962
0.00%
0 out of 1487
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